intelligence analysis, overcoming bias and learning

[davidbfpo]

The CIA has released this book 'Psychology of Intelligence Analysis' by Richard Heuer, as a free PDF, spotted via Twitter:

Did you know that the CIA released a free PDF on how to analyze OSINT Well, it wasn't JUST for OSINT. It discusses bias and how to keep an open mind when performing analyses. Worth a download and read.

Amidst all the explanations this is the best:

Dick Heuer's writings make three fundamental points about the cognitive challenges intelligence analysts face:

• The mind is poorly "wired" to deal effectively with both inherent uncertainty (the natural fog surrounding complex, indeterminate intelligence issues) and induced uncertainty (the man-made fog fabricated by denial and deception operations).
• Even increased awareness of cognitive and other "unmotivated" biases, such as the tendency to see information confirming an already-held judgment more vividly than one sees "disconfirming" information, does little by itself to help analysts deal effectively with uncertainty.
• Tools and techniques that gear the analyst's mind to apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex issues on which information is incomplete, ambiguous, and often deliberately distorted. Key examples of such intellectual devices include techniques for structuring information, challenging assumptions, and exploring alternative interpretations.

Link:https://www.cia.gov/library/center-f...gence-analysis

[AdamG]

In the spring of 1997, a 14-year-old’s school science fair project made a convincing argument to ban a dangerous chemical compound: dihydrogen monoxide, known as DHMO. Nathan Zohner, a junior high school student in Idaho, gave 50 of his fellow students a report called "Dihydrogen Monoxide: The Unrecognized Killer,” which accurately laid out the dangers of DHMO, convincing the majority of students to call for its ban. The experiment caused enough of a splash that it was picked up by The Washington Post

http://mentalfloss.com/article/50190...rogen-monoxide

[AdamG]

Straight out of a Hollywood script

Following misrepresentations by a white nationalist leader and coordinated efforts by internet trolls, numerous researchers and media outlets spread a seemingly false claim that the man charged with killing more than a dozen people at a Florida high school belonged to an extremist group.

Law enforcement agencies say they have no evidence so far to support this claim, and the rumor appears to have been perpetrated by white nationalist trolls themselves.

Money shot.

“[T]hey are so hungry for a story that they'll just believe anything as long as its corroborated by a few people and seems legit,” wrote the creator of one 4chan thread.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...415672?cid=apn

[AdamG]

Tangential technology due to inevitably intersect this topic.

Fake videos are on the rise. As they become more realistic, seeing shouldn't always be believing

With more time, Pinscreen, the Los Angeles start-up behind the technology, believes its renderings will become so accurate they will defy reality.
"You won't be able to tell," said Hao Li, a leading researcher on computer-generated video at USC who founded Pinscreen in 2015. "With further deep-learning advancements, especially on mobile devices, we'll be able to produce completely photoreal avatars in real time."

Now imagine a phony video of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un announcing a missile strike. The White House would have mere minutes to determine whether the clip was genuine and whether it warranted a retaliatory strike.
What about video of a presidential candidate admitting to taking foreign cash? Even if the footage proved fake, the damage could prove irreversible.
In some corners of the internet, people are using open-source software to swap celebrities' faces into pornographic videos, a phenomenon called Deep Fakes.

Note: soft paywall
http://www.latimes.com/business/tech...219-story.html