intelligence analysis, overcoming bias and learning

[davidbfpo]

The CIA has released this book 'Psychology of Intelligence Analysis' by Richard Heuer, as a free PDF, spotted via Twitter:

Did you know that the CIA released a free PDF on how to analyze OSINT Well, it wasn't JUST for OSINT. It discusses bias and how to keep an open mind when performing analyses. Worth a download and read.

Amidst all the explanations this is the best:

Dick Heuer's writings make three fundamental points about the cognitive challenges intelligence analysts face:

• The mind is poorly "wired" to deal effectively with both inherent uncertainty (the natural fog surrounding complex, indeterminate intelligence issues) and induced uncertainty (the man-made fog fabricated by denial and deception operations).
• Even increased awareness of cognitive and other "unmotivated" biases, such as the tendency to see information confirming an already-held judgment more vividly than one sees "disconfirming" information, does little by itself to help analysts deal effectively with uncertainty.
• Tools and techniques that gear the analyst's mind to apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex issues on which information is incomplete, ambiguous, and often deliberately distorted. Key examples of such intellectual devices include techniques for structuring information, challenging assumptions, and exploring alternative interpretations.

Link:https://www.cia.gov/library/center-f...gence-analysis