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Thread: intelligence analysis, overcoming bias and learning

  1. #21
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Conference on Understanding and Improving Intelligence Analysis

    Last month I attended this international conference in London, hosted by the intelligence and security Studies of Brunel University and the University of Mississippi, a rather unconventional mix was on offer:
    ...cross-disciplinary discussion about the value of learning from other fields to improve both the understanding and the practice of intelligence analysis.

    Professionals in other fields—including medicine, the social and behavioural sciences, history and historiography, anthropology and other disciplines engaged in ethnographic research, econometric forecasting, and legal reasoning—also face many similar challenges to those that exist in intelligence analysis, including:

    Difficulties acquiring information from a wide variety of sources
    Vetting and evaluating the information that is acquired
    Deriving understanding and meaning from that information
    Impact of deadlines, editing, and other production processes on accuracy of analysis and assessment
    Problems in dissemination and distribution to consumers or customers
    Managing relationship between producer and consumer (role, responsibility, independence & objectivity)
    Developing professional infrastructure (recruit, select, train, & develop personnel; code of ethics)
    Overcoming impact of changing technology and alternative information distribution systems
    How do practitioners in various non-intelligence fields overcome these kinds of challenges? How are their challenges similar to or different from those that exist in the intelligence arena? What can be learned from the comparison?
    Most of the presentations are on:http://sas.olemiss.edu/bciss/materials.php
    davidbfpo

  2. #22
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    Default Fixing Intelligence Analysis: From Specialists to Experts

    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-24-2017 at 12:13 PM.

  3. #23
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    Default Bias and Perception: How if Affects Our Judgment in Decision Making and Analysis

    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-24-2017 at 12:13 PM.

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    Default Dangers of Ethnicity in Analysis

    Dangers of Ethnicity in Analysis

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    Default Community Ecosystem Analysis

    Community Ecosystem Analysis

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  6. #26
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    Default Qualitative Analysis Concept in Support of Force 2025 and Beyond (F2025B) Maneuvers

    Qualitative Analysis Concept in Support of Force 2025 and Beyond (F2025B) Maneuvers

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  7. #27
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    Default Using Target Audience Analysis to Aid Strategic Level Decisionmaking

    Using Target Audience Analysis to Aid Strategic Level Decisionmaking

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  8. #28
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    Default Strategic Studies Institute: Research and Analysis

    Strategic Studies Institute: Research and Analysis

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  9. #29
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    Default Center of Gravity Analysis "Down Under": The Australian Defence Force's New Approach

    Center of Gravity Analysis "Down Under": The Australian Defence Force's New Approach

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  10. #30
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    Default Enabling Smart City Resilience Through Center of Gravity Analysis

    Enabling Smart City Resilience Through Center of Gravity Analysis

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  11. #31
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    Default Advancing Intelligence Analysis for the Multi-Domain Battlefield

    Advancing Intelligence Analysis for the Multi-Domain Battlefield

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  12. #32
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Only half of 'dangerous' Islamists actually dangerous - German police

    Odd timing for such an article after recent publicity over the mistakes made, but this is Germany. At a minimum it is a pointer to the assessment tool developed and in use. Here is a key phrase:
    But it's no great skill to identify people who are highly violent...The skill is in categorizing the people who are not dangerous among the people defined as endangerers.
    Link:http://www.dw.com/en/only-half-of-da...ce/a-41848406?
    davidbfpo

  13. #33
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Moderator at work

    There are just over seventy threads that have 'analysis' in the title; most a specific to a campaign or theme, whereas this one is concerned with intelligence analysis, overcoming bias and learning. Three threads have been merged here and the former phrase has become the title. All prompted by the next post.
    davidbfpo

  14. #34
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

    The CIA has released this book 'Psychology of Intelligence Analysis' by Richard Heuer, as a free PDF, spotted via Twitter:
    Did you know that the CIA released a free PDF on how to analyze OSINT Well, it wasn't JUST for OSINT. It discusses bias and how to keep an open mind when performing analyses. Worth a download and read.
    Amidst all the explanations this is the best:
    Dick Heuer's writings make three fundamental points about the cognitive challenges intelligence analysts face:
    • The mind is poorly "wired" to deal effectively with both inherent uncertainty (the natural fog surrounding complex, indeterminate intelligence issues) and induced uncertainty (the man-made fog fabricated by denial and deception operations).
    • Even increased awareness of cognitive and other "unmotivated" biases, such as the tendency to see information confirming an already-held judgment more vividly than one sees "disconfirming" information, does little by itself to help analysts deal effectively with uncertainty.
    • Tools and techniques that gear the analyst's mind to apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex issues on which information is incomplete, ambiguous, and often deliberately distorted. Key examples of such intellectual devices include techniques for structuring information, challenging assumptions, and exploring alternative interpretations.
    Link:https://www.cia.gov/library/center-f...gence-analysis
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-24-2017 at 12:59 PM. Reason: 30,817v
    davidbfpo

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    Default Understanding Culture Requires a New Approach to Its Analysis

    Understanding Culture Requires a New Approach to Its Analysis

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  16. #36
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Default Real-world case example, executed by a 14 year old

    In the spring of 1997, a 14-year-old’s school science fair project made a convincing argument to ban a dangerous chemical compound: dihydrogen monoxide, known as DHMO. Nathan Zohner, a junior high school student in Idaho, gave 50 of his fellow students a report called "Dihydrogen Monoxide: The Unrecognized Killer,” which accurately laid out the dangers of DHMO, convincing the majority of students to call for its ban. The experiment caused enough of a splash that it was picked up by The Washington Post
    http://mentalfloss.com/article/50190...rogen-monoxide
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  17. #37
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Default Real-world case example, 'Source Hacking'

    Straight out of a Hollywood script

    Following misrepresentations by a white nationalist leader and coordinated efforts by internet trolls, numerous researchers and media outlets spread a seemingly false claim that the man charged with killing more than a dozen people at a Florida high school belonged to an extremist group.

    Law enforcement agencies say they have no evidence so far to support this claim, and the rumor appears to have been perpetrated by white nationalist trolls themselves.
    Money shot.

    “[T]hey are so hungry for a story that they'll just believe anything as long as its corroborated by a few people and seems legit,” wrote the creator of one 4chan thread.
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...415672?cid=apn
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  18. #38
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Default More manipulations

    Tangential technology due to inevitably intersect this topic.

    Fake videos are on the rise. As they become more realistic, seeing shouldn't always be believing

    With more time, Pinscreen, the Los Angeles start-up behind the technology, believes its renderings will become so accurate they will defy reality.
    "You won't be able to tell," said Hao Li, a leading researcher on computer-generated video at USC who founded Pinscreen in 2015. "With further deep-learning advancements, especially on mobile devices, we'll be able to produce completely photoreal avatars in real time."
    Now imagine a phony video of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un announcing a missile strike. The White House would have mere minutes to determine whether the clip was genuine and whether it warranted a retaliatory strike.
    What about video of a presidential candidate admitting to taking foreign cash? Even if the footage proved fake, the damage could prove irreversible.
    In some corners of the internet, people are using open-source software to swap celebrities' faces into pornographic videos, a phenomenon called Deep Fakes.
    Note: soft paywall
    http://www.latimes.com/business/tech...219-story.html
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

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