Zimbabwe: 2007 till Mugabe resigns

[davidbfpo]

Sadly history has shown that a regime can survive a hunger crisis while many of it's citiziens might not.

Firn,

I would agree, but this report suggests that this time could be different and the key point is in bold:

A general strike paralysed Zimbabwe on Wednesday as shops and businesses shut down, public transport came to a halt and children were turned away from school......A spiralling economic crisis means that Zimbabwe has run out of money. The regime can no longer pay civil servants or teachers and strict limits have been imposed on the amount that ordinary people can withdraw from bank accounts......In the past, Mr Mugabe, 92, would simply order the Reserve Bank to print money whenever his coffers were empty. But the worst hyperinflation in history forced Zimbabwe to abandon its national currency in 2009. The country now uses the US dollar – which Mr Mugabe cannot print.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...-out-of-money/

When will the regime not be able to pay the police and soldiers?

[davidbfpo]

Professor Stephen Chan is a SME on Zimbabwe and has an article on the visit to the City of London this week by Zimbabwe's Finance Minister:https://theconversation.com/zimbabwes-finance-minister-makes-a-doomed-pitch-to-londons-big-businesses-62015?

A reminder of the position:

Zimbabwe has no money, and its government has no fiscal plan. Its reserves are emptied, tax revenues are inadequate, public funds are still ransacked, and much of the country’s remaining formal employment is in an unproductive public service.

(Later) But Mugabe is simply not trusted by the rest of the world, and he dares not mandate a change to the indigenisation law – especially not now, as his health declines and as he perhaps secretly looks to secure his wife’s path to succeed him. Indigenisation was meant to placate Zimbabwean nationalism, which still percolates among younger generations as well as older ones.

[Firn]

Good reads. The day will come when power changes hands. Without a widely shared, supported, clear and hardly disputed way as in a modern democracy this is bound to create great tensions and potential violent conflict as has been seen time and time again. Especially so as in a state like Zimbabwe the winner may take almost all while the losers may lose all, including it's life.

Economic actors without political backing might suffer greatly in such a conflict as their wealth is some of the increasingly spare capital available for the rent seeking. Land is one of the most important assets which remains in a starved economy and it's allocation may be crucial to secure political support. That will be another heavy blow for the economy and the hungry masses but might be seen as key to take political control...

[davidbfpo]

Two articles, one an analysis and the second a tale of high-level antics.

The first, in a South African blog and I noted these two points:

A lot depends on whether the army gets paid or not on Friday

Then following "family first" for President Mugabe:

his closest family, including wife Grace Mugabe, are currently in Singapore.

Link:http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/artic...-go-from-here/

The police arrest two suspects for corruption and who arives at the police station demanding their release, which is recorded by hand in the record books? The Vice President!
Link:https://www.newsday.co.zw/2016/07/15...-zinara-storm/

[davidbfpo]

A week ago I asked:

When will the regime not be able to pay the police and soldiers?

According to this report:

Zimbabwe has failed to pay the army on time for the second straight month, military sources said on Friday

Link:http://nehandaradio.com/2016/07/16/z...rmy-2nd-month/

They appear to be a Zimbabwe based radio station.

[davidbfpo]

I missed the reporting last week that the veterans of the liberation struggle, who were used to often violently evict 'commercial' or white farmers a few years ago, had issued a statement against President Mugabe:

We note, with concern, shock and dismay, the systematic entrenchment of dictatorial tendencies, personified by the president and his cohorts, which have slowly devoured the values of the liberation struggle...We are dismayed by the president's tendency to indulge, in his usual vitriol against perceived enemies, including peaceful protesters, as well as war veterans, when the economy is on its knees," the veterans' association's statement said. "He has a lot to answer for the serious plight of the national economy.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-36860159

Yesterday President Mugabe made his reaction clear:

Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe has threatened to punish those war veterans who last week said they were withdrawing their backing for him.
At a rally of his Zanu-PF party supporters and veterans who remain loyal to him, Mr Mugabe also urged the veterans to choose new leaders.
He blamed the West for splits in the veterans' association. 'Once we find out who wrote that statement, the party will punish them. "During the war we had rebels who we punished... some by detaining them underground, feeding them there'.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-36906732

Today the BBC reports

Zimbabwe’s war veterans’ spokesman, Douglas Mahiya, has been arrested. He was taken into custody on Wednesday, the day President Robert Mugabe threatened to punish those war veterans who last week said they were withdrawing their backing for him. Mr Mahiya, along with about 150 others, attended the meeting of the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans' Association which came up with the communique accusing Mr Mugabe of being dictatorial and egotistical.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-africa-36685940

[davidbfpo]

In Post 365 I cited Professor Stephen Chan and today's email contained a link to a very pessimistic Q&A with him:https://www.dailynews.co.zw/articles...e-from-zanu-pf