Zimbabwe: 2007 till Mugabe resigns

[JMA]

Part of the Wikileaks package is a cable from the outgoing US Ambassador Dell in 2007 which he gave the title SUBJECT: The End is Nigh.

It is hard to believe that the US "machine" could have read that 2007 situation in Zimbabwe so wrong. Would really like to see some of their pre-1980 Rhodesian era cables and assessments.

[Rex Brynen]

It is hard to believe that the US "machine" could have read that 2007 situation in Zimbabwe so wrong. Would really like to see some of their pre-1980 Rhodesian era cables and assessments.

I agree, it was a very poor reading of Mugabe's staying power.

It wasn't necessarily indicative of all of the US "machine," however--it is a personal opinion cable by the ambassador, which may well be at odds with assessments offered elsewhere within the State Department, let alone the CIA, etc.

[Stan]

Hey Rex and JMA !

I agree, it was a very poor reading of Mugabe's staying power.

It wasn't necessarily indicative of all of the US "machine," however--it is a personal opinion cable by the ambassador, which may well be at odds with assessments offered elsewhere within the State Department, let alone the CIA, etc.

One couldn't fathom what "opinions" end up in a sent message regardless of what the rest of the Country Team thinks or knows.

There's certainly much more under the heading of "misreadings of African leaders" that make me glad to be retired

Regards, Stan

[JMA]

I agree, it was a very poor reading of Mugabe's staying power.

It wasn't necessarily indicative of all of the US "machine," however--it is a personal opinion cable by the ambassador, which may well be at odds with assessments offered elsewhere within the State Department, let alone the CIA, etc.

You give the State Department/CIA the benefit of the doubt.

Lets watch and see as the documents become available just how pervasive inept and deep seated the assessments of local political situations in various countries were.

[Rex Brynen]

You give the State Department/CIA the benefit of the doubt.

I didn't, actually--I merely pointed out what would be evident to anyone who had worked in a foreign ministry, namely that the cable could not be read as reflecting the views of much more than the ambassador of the day.

Indeed, in my experience, cables of that tone often reflect an ambassador's unease that his own views are not universally shared—hence Stan's comment below.

[JMA]

I didn't, actually--I merely pointed out what would be evident to anyone who had worked in a foreign ministry, namely that the cable could not be read as reflecting the views of much more than the ambassador of the day.

Indeed, in my experience, cables of that tone often reflect an ambassador's unease that his own views are not universally shared—hence Stan's comment below.

Well the world is about to see what goes on in the State Department for themselves.

[Stan]

Well the world is about to see what goes on in the State Department for themselves.

JMA,
I wish I could share your enthusiasm and optimism, but my 26 years of being around Embassy and State lead me to believe otherwise.

On the other hand, you may be correct...
There was a time in Zaire when one could read yesterday's message traffic while chomping on a road-side omelet/baguette less than 50 meters from the Embassy (the sandwich was wrapped in multiple pages of cable traffic). It was then I realized why only our office shredder was always broken or dull.

Tom can tell you how fast our burn time was when we were there (not much to read about in our office).

[Tom Odom]

Tom can tell you how fast our burn time was when we were there (not much to read about in our office).

That would be the 5 seconds necessary to smash the hard drive with an axe.

Out of many Stan and I suffered through, my favorite chief of mission pronouncement was on July 16th 1994 regarding the impact of the Rwandan refugee exodus into Zaire:

"This will all be over in two weeks..."

Sixteen years and several million dead later, I still consider it worthy of a Guiness salute

Brilliant!