http://bellum.stanfordreview.org/?p=325

Mugabe is 85. Rumors of his poor health are littered throughout cyberspace. “Hardliners” need not remove him from power to send Zimbabwe into chaos; he merely has to die. There is no clear successor and the durability of the power-sharing arrangement is extremely suspect. The combination of all of this — an aging autocrat, an unstable government, rampant disease, skyrocketing inflation, and a disgruntled military — should make Zimbabwe’s neighbors rather wary, as they will bear the tides of refugees in the event.