Well, living in Europe, I'am not a fan of this evolution.
The next thing they will do is aplying for membership with NATO and EU.
As a former military man I would wish peace and stability for every new country, but as a sivilian I'am going to get stuck with the bill
I'm all for it...
Why not?
If the UN can allow East Timor to have a referendum on independence and leave Indonesia, why can't Kosovo go free?
Most would say that East Timor was forcibly incorporated into Indonesia in the 1970s when the Portuguese left.
People say Kosovo has been part of Serbia for centuries.
But it's not true. Kosovo was captured by Serbia during the First Balkans War in 1912. Before that, it was part of the Ottoman Empire from about 1470 onwards.
Before that, it was part of Serbia...maybe you've heard of the Battle of Kosovo Polje in 1389 that is the Serb national day. It was really a draw and the Ottomans didn't take control of Kosovo until the 1470s. So, before Columbus discovered the West Indies, Kosovo was part of Serbia...but that was a long time ago.
So the Serbs took it from the Ottomans.
The majority of people in Kosovo have been Albanians for some time. They were left out of the new Albanian state (as was half of the ethnic Albanian population in the Balkans) when Albania was created before the 1920s. Kosovar Albanians have been a majority for some time...and they do not like Serbia or being part of it. They have been discriminated against in their own home area for some time.
Now, there have been Serbs in Kosovo for some time too...centuries...but they are a declining population...Serbs from Serbia don't want to live in Kosovo and a lot of Kosovo Serbs were leaving before the war...no jobs!
So, do you force a people who have already fought a guerrilla campaign to stay in a country they don't want to be part of...a people who have for all purposes been free for the last 9 years...and watch the situation blow up again...or do you gamble and give them independence, something that once Kosovo is split (the northern part was part of Serbia proper until Tito changed the borders in 1946) will lead to more stability, or do you try to have Serbia come back in and fight another war.
Borders change...they always have...and this really is the best way forward...for all the Serbs say about Kosovo, ask them if they will move to Kosovo...and the numbers they had demonstrating in Belgrade today, well...10,000 isn't much for a nationalistic demonstration in Serbia.
The Serbs know it's over...they may not want to admit it, but they know...but they'll make a big deal of it and add it to their martyr mentality...I mean, besides the Catalans, who else has a national defeat as their national day?
Economic analysis
Bloomberg, 18 Feb 2008
Benchmark Asia, Europe Coal Rise to Records on Disruptions.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aDEg4o8vJVE8
Deutsche Welle, Feb 12, 2008 (English)Coal from Richards Bay, South Africa, the source of more than a quarter of coal burned in Europe for power, advanced $5.70, or 5.2 percent, to an average of $115.90 a metric ton in the week ended Feb. 15, according to McCloskey. Prices at Newcastle, Australia, a benchmark for Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, gained $13.68, or 11 percent, to $139.16 a ton, according to the globalCOAL NEWC Index.
Could an Independent Kosovo Sustain Itself Economically?
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,...122353,00.html
Kosovo sits on an estimated 15 billion tons of coal.However, behind all the hope and optimism which stirs in the province ahead of the declaration there is still some uncertainty over whether Kosovo -- known during the Cold War as "Yugoslavia's poorhouse" -- will be able to support itself economically as a new nation state.
Even today, Kosovo rates as one of the poorest regions in Europe. According to the World Bank, the average annual salary for the population is 1,243 euros ($1,803). It reports that 37 percent of the population lives in poverty and survives on less than 1.42 euros a day.
Sapere Aude
Well, it's not just the Russians who oppose it. The Georgians can't be too happy (South Ossetia), the Spanish aren't recognizing it (Basques), Sri Lanka (Tamil), etc., etc. There's plenty of countries that wouldn't like to see a long-suffering ethnic minority region get its independence. . .Originally Posted by tulanealum
. . .in 15 years would we want the Hispanics to declare Californian independence?
I just consider it a positive sign that Kostunica announced that regardless of Serbian anger over the decision, there would be no violence . . .the Kosovar President said the same regarding the Serbian minority in Kosovo. Given that much of humanity's misery seems to have arisen from the Balkans over the centuries, it's nothing short of an enormous shift that this is happening peacefully.
Matt
"Give a good leader very little and he will succeed. Give a mediocrity a great deal and he will fail." - General George C. Marshall
Matt, I think you're right...both leaders said the same thing and it was good...but I can tell you right now, that if that happens in practice, it will be a miracle...the Kosovo Serbs will never ever accept independence. Most will eventually leave when they realize the VJ and MUP are not going to cross the border...but this is not over...although I think an independent Kosovo is good for Balkans stability, there will be pains...RS in Bosnia will use this to join Serbia...partition will occur in Kosovo with the north leaving and maybe western Serbia rejoining Kosovo (it was broken off by Tito and given to Serbia in 1946 as current northern Kosovo was part of Serbia and given to Kosovo in an effort to dilute the Albanian majority in Kosovo), and eventually the question of whether Kosovo will join Albania and what the Albanians in Macedonia will do, etc.
As for the other minority groups, well, this is the way the world works...it's history and it's not going to change...despite hyper globalists telling us that we're moving to bigger bodies and the nation state is dead.
I won't deny this, but I'm all for Catalonia getting independence from Spain...peacefully though.
Heh. H
Tribalism will trump globalism -- fortunately. All the areas named plus Scotland, Wales, Quebec and literally dozens of other places argue for a future of more, not less fragmentation. Which is fine with me."...As for the other minority groups, well, this is the way the world works...it's history and it's not going to change...despite hyper globalists telling us that we're moving to bigger bodies and the nation state is dead..."
Peacefully is always better but history shows that it is not always probable. Like it or not, minor warfare is the story of the world and of mankind. The Cold War, a very artificial period in history, has led many today to think the lack of small wars due to great power constraints was and is the norm. Be nice if it was; it is not.I won't deny this, but I'm all for Catalonia getting independence from Spain...peacefully though.
Having spent some time in both Bosnia and Albania I can say I would be very suprised if this does not result in violence. The Serbs got a bad rap for many of the things they did and deservidly so but that tends to foment the myth that everybody else was an innocent victim of Serb aggression. As far as I can tell, nobody's hands were clean. Some were dirtier than others but all have things that they would prefer be foregotten about. My point is that violence always seems to be just below the surface in the Balkans. Serpska for instance has wanted out of Bosnia pretty much since there was a Bosnia. This might very well encourage them to act. There are also other parts of Bosnia that are ethnically Croat and might well be tired of being part of a dirt poor Muslim country. I see this as setting a bad precident.
SFC W
But was East Timor a bad precedent...similar situation...maybe not the mixing populations, but there were certainly those who wanted to stay as part of Indonesia.
If Kosovo stays part of Serbia, then you can expect more fighting and worse than what will happen if it is independent. Is that good?
It's a bad situation all around...but I believe this is the best option...and as for the RS, let them leave...should they be made to stay in a state they don't want to be part of?
That's only a matter of time...the RS will leave for Serbia.
Borders have always been changing and they will continue...you can try to stop it, but if you want to, you may have to use an iron fist. And will the world really be ok with that? The only way to keep Kosovo in Serbia is letting the Serbs fight the Albanians and push those out (to where?) that won't accept it as part of Serbia.
Eventually the RS is going to go...EURFOR is unlikely to try to quell that.
Why didn't people raise a fuss about Montenegro leaving Serbia...there is a 31% population of Serbs in Montenegro...they didn't want the breakup to happen...how much complaining was there from the international community then?
Given what has occurred over the last 48 hours - you're proven right and I'm proven wrong, again. I'll stop my prognostications
Besides the mob attacks on the closed US Embassy in Belgrade, there are reports from CNN, CFR.org, and several other sources that Serbian Army reservists "clashed" with NATO-led peacekeepers at the border checkpoint. No elaboration on what exactly "clashed" consists of, or if NATO-led means NATO forces. The NATO commander had said they had drawn up extensive plans for such a scenario - I certainly hope so.
Latest on the Serbian situation available here:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe...nce/index.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7256158.stm
and
http://www.cfr.org/publication/15481...breadcrumb=%2F
Matt
"Give a good leader very little and he will succeed. Give a mediocrity a great deal and he will fail." - General George C. Marshall
The Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor, 21 Feb 08:
Kosova and the "Frozen" Conflicts of the Former USSR
The leaders of the breakaway mini-states of Transnistria in Moldova, Karabakh in Azerbaijan, as well as Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia welcomed Kosova's unilateral declaration of independence this week and its subsequent recognition by the international community. At a joint press conference this week in Moscow, the presidents of self-proclaimed South Ossetia and Abkhazia Eduard Kokoiti and Sergei Bagapsh, announced they will “address Russia, other CIS countries, and international organizations to defend and approve our rights to independence.” The Transnistria foreign ministry issued a statement announcing, “The declaration and consecutive recognition of Kosova are of principal importance since they create a new model of conflict settlement based on the priority of the right for self-determination”.
Transnistria , Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Karabakh proclaimed their sovereignty in the early 1990s as the USSR collapsed, but no international actor has recognized them. Only Abkhazia is seeking outright independence; Transnistria and South Ossetia have expressed a desire to join Russia, while Karabakh wants to join Armenia......
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