Post-Cold War Conflicts

[tequila]

The Cold War, a very artificial period in history, has led many today to think the lack of small wars due to great power constraints was and is the norm. Be nice if it was; it is not.

There were more 'small wars' during decolonization and the Cold War than there are now. The world has gotten progressively more peaceful since the end of the Cold War. Compare South and Central America, southern Africa, and eastern/southeast Asia then and now. The only places that grew significantly more violent were really central Asia, southern Europe, and central Africa, and only the DRC civil war compares with the death tolls inflicted in southeast Asia.

[Ken White]

There were more 'small wars' during decolonization and the Cold War than there are now. The world has gotten progressively more peaceful since the end of the Cold War. Compare South and Central America, southern Africa, and eastern/southeast Asia then and now. The only places that grew significantly more violent were really central Asia, southern Europe, and central Africa, and only the DRC civil war compares with the death tolls inflicted in southeast Asia.

Define "is." There were essentially no wars in South America during the Cold War, internal dissent yes -- but no wars. Those in Central America were quite small. As you note, decolonization led to several wars and there was a Cold War influence but essentially, during the 1960-1990 period there were few wars. Not none, just few -- and most of those were fomented by the USSR at the fracture lines of British and French drawn boundaries on maps (where they are still occurring, giving the old retired guys in Ekaterineburg something to chuckle about when they watch CNN or the Beeb today).

I didn't waste pixels elaborating on the fact that we communicate more globally and rapidly now than then but that too impacts the perceptions.

Most people in their 30s have seen or heard of more war in the last fifteen years than they saw or heard of in the previous fifteen or twenty -- that was my, I thought self evident, point.

Obviously not.

[tequila]

There were essentially no wars in South America during the Cold War, internal dissent yes -- but no wars. Those in Central America were quite small.

I suppose the line between "war" and "internal dissent" is a matter of definition. Regardless of what you call it, political conflict in Colombia, Uruguay, Chile, etc. killed tens of thousands. Except in Colombia, none of these conflicts are still ongoing. In Central America, you might regard these as "small" wars, but they were massive and wrenching for the societies involved and killed hundreds of thousands in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, etc. --- indeed, are far bloodier than what we see nowadays in the Middle East. That relative peace reigns there makes quite a difference.

The 1960-1990 period might have seen few declared wars, but many bloody conflicts. Vietnam and assorted southeast Asian fallout killed almost 4 million - no such conflict nowadays is anywhere near this level of mortality except for the destruction of the DRC. Korea killed almost 1.5 million.

To stick with less famous bloodshed, Indonesian wars and civil conflict spurred by the Cold War resulted in anywhere from 500k to 1 million dead. Angola and Mozambique the same for each. No conflict ongoing now can hold a candle to these Cold War sideshows, yet how many Americans even know these places had wars?

Most people in their 30s have seen or heard of more war in the last fifteen years than they saw or heard of in the previous fifteen or twenty -- that was my, I thought self evident, point.

This reflects only an increase in media availability and information technology, not in the prevalence of violence, which has been falling since the end of the Cold War.

[Rex Brynen]

From the Human Security Brief 2006:

Number of state-based armed conflicts, by type, 1946-2005 (number slowly grew during Cold War, then declined)

Average Number of Battle Deaths per State-Based Armed Conflict, per Year, 1950-2005 (number declined during Cold War, and declined even faster after Cold War)

Average Number of Armed Conflict Onsets and Terminations, per year, 1950-2005 (only with the end of the Cold War did terminations start to exceed onsets)

[Ken White]

My lack of clarity due to laziness is at fault here. Most of the conflicts during the cold war were due to that 'war' and were fomented by us or the USSR as proxy efforts. Those conflicts transcended the otherwise historical over thousands of years norm of non-state based conflict. With the demise of the cold war, more non-state based conflicts have erupted -- even though many of them are in the same locations of cold War conflicts; those are generally along the boundaries drawn by the British, French (and yes, German, Portugese and Spanish) colonial authorities.

Not worth arguing about, folks. You win.