Pakistan and nuclear weapons (catch all)

[davidbfpo]

A 'What If' question. Instability in Pakistan has long been a "given" and every so often it appears to slide towards the precipice, then pulls away.

I do recall, now some years ago, speculation about the (in)security of the Pakistani nuclear weapons stockpile and what should happen if nation-state, notably the military, lost both the capability and will to keep them secure. That is one issue.

Pakistan is not just a nuclear-armed state. It has a complex relationship with its neighbours, notably with India and with China and the USA. Not to overlook Saudi Arabia, especially as former and present leaders like to have long stays there or in the Gulf states - as guests.

Personally I think if the nuclear weapons, foreign embassies and resident or visiting foreign nationals are safeguarded in an emergency no-one would want to be actively involved.

[carl]

If the nukes and all those other people could be safeguard then the state wouldn't be collapsing.

If there is ever any serious doubt that those nukes can't be controlled, I can see no way at all that India won't act to grab them. India cannot take any chances those things could go walkabout because their most likely target would be India.

Unless a miracle happens and the Pak Army/ISI can be discredited to the extent they lose their privileged place in Pakistani society, there seems to be no way at all that all this will end well. It is very a much a pity that our best chance to influence things in that direction would to have not been complete fools in Afghanistan. But we blew it.

[flagg]

What of the possibility of Pakistani Army/ISI ambition to retain political/economic/military power and relevancy by leasing an IRBM Regiment's worth of nuclear warheads to Saudi Arabia once Iran goes nuclear?

With the US leaving Afghanistan and Pakistan losing leverage to extort logistical occupation tax/royalties from the US, and thus the ability for the US to seek closer alignment with India, I would think Pakistan's behavior in the future could mimic GCC behavior.

Which means less "by, with, thru" and more "around, without, and in spite of".

As I understand it, Pakistan has earned mercenary income from the Saudi state via many Pakistani military working on behalf of the Saudi state and that maybe Saudi played a role in funding Pakistan's nuclear program(directly or indirectly).

I would think a closer Saudi/Pakistani partnership, with a possible nuclear angle, quietly backed by China is more than just a possibility?

Pakistan's Army/ISI stay geopolitically relevant and solvent.

Saudi regime continuity is better insured.

Or do I need to take some crazy pills?

[omarali50]

I wrote this in more optimistic times, but it may still have some relevance(when i get some time, I hope to do a follow up):

http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...-omar-ali.html

Last paras:

So much for the optimistic version. Since this is a post about Pakistan, it cannot end without some pessimism. The most dangerous element in Pakistan today is not the Islamist fanatics. It is the rise of China. Not because the rise of China threatens Pakistan or because Chinese hyper-capitalism or cheap Chinese products threaten our industry or our social peace or any such thing, but because it may inflate the egos of the military high command to the point that they lose contact with reality and try a high jump for which we are not yet ready (and may never be ready). It’s not that the high jump will get anywhere, but that the attempt may lead us into more trouble than we can handle.

I say this because GHQ, for all its pragmatic pretensions, has been known to overestimate their skill and underestimate their opponents. If China was not truly a rising power, and if Pakistan did not have some real assets and advantages, we might have been safer in the long run. But since there is an element of truth in the paknationalists notions about China and the changing global balance of power, they may lose their balance. All I am saying is GHQ is prone to flying off on a self-generated hot air pocket even when the situation does not encourage such optimism. When the situation actually has some positive aspects, there may be no restraining them. But, I remain an optimist. I think our own weaknesses may protect us from the fate of a much stronger and more capable country (Germany in 1940).
- See more at: http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd....rnWXbnRj.dpuf