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  1. #1
    Council Member marct's Avatar
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    Default Pakistan and nuclear weapons (catch all)

    From MEMRI -

    Senior Pakistani Newspaper Editor: We Should Not Hesitate To Use Nuclear Weapons to Take Kashmir from India

    In an interview on the Waqt television channel, that was published by the mainstream right-wing Urdu daily Roznama Nawa-i-Waqt, senior Pakistani newspaper editor Majeed Nizami discussed Kashmir's importance to Pakistan, called it “the jugular vein” of Pakistan, and added that Pakistan should not hesitate to use nuclear weapons to take it from India.
    Sic Bisquitus Disintegrat...
    Marc W.D. Tyrrell, Ph.D.
    Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies,
    Senior Research Fellow,
    The Canadian Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies, NPSIA
    Carleton University
    http://marctyrrell.com/

  2. #2
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Crazies come out

    Just as Pakistan tries to return to democracy a newspaper editor says this, simply amazing. This is nothing more than a distraction from the real issue, the governance of Pakistan. Threatening the use of nuclear weapons will cause some Indians to see only evil comes from Pakistan, leaving aside the practicalities of any threat.

    Almost akin to "shouting fire in a crowded cinema". Free speech has a price.

    davidbfpo

  3. #3
    Council Member Danny's Avatar
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    Default Unable to focus ...

    This editor must have an attention problem. Given Pakistan's troubles in NWFP and FATA, to worry one whit about Kashmir right now is akin to one worrying over whether he fed his dog today when his child is drowning.

    Simply amazing.

  4. #4
    Council Member marct's Avatar
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    What I find worrying is that it *might* act as a unifying focus for inside Pakistan on the old Soviet model of "problems at home? Cause trouble abroad".
    Sic Bisquitus Disintegrat...
    Marc W.D. Tyrrell, Ph.D.
    Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies,
    Senior Research Fellow,
    The Canadian Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies, NPSIA
    Carleton University
    http://marctyrrell.com/

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    Council Member Ron Humphrey's Avatar
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    Question Also might be

    Quote Originally Posted by marct View Post
    What I find worrying is that it *might* act as a unifying focus for inside Pakistan on the old Soviet model of "problems at home? Cause trouble abroad".
    An attempt at introducing factors which would complicate our somewhat tenuous relationship which the military by placing us on an opposing side. Their military has people they have to work with to and the PC requirements could get really convoluted real quick on how to address such things.

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    This editor saying this is not surprising. He manages the major mainstream right-wing media in Pakistan. He's previously said the only solution that will work in Kashmir is force and has justified pretty much any violent act toward that end.

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default The Post 9/11 Afghan Missile Crisis (That Wasn’t)

    A counter-factual question raised by RUSI's Shashank Joshi, so hat tip to him. What if Pakistani nuclear weapons had been present in Afghanistan in September 2001? Ridiculous idea, but he has found this unsupported WaPo report from November 2001:
    Pakistani fears of an Indian attack on its nuclear sites were so great in the summer of 1999, after Pakistani-supported guerrillas invaded Indian territory, that military officers here secretly contacted Taliban officials about the possibility of moving some nuclear assets westward to neighboring Afghanistan for safekeeping, according to a recently retired Pakistani general officer familiar with the talks.

    ”The option was actively discussed with the Taliban after some indications emerged that India may open hostilities at the eastern border,” the retired official said. ‘‘The Taliban accepted the requests with open arms.”

    The former official said the talks were ”exploratory” and said that no nuclear-related assets were placed in Afghanistan. At the time, Pakistan’s military and intelligence services had close relations with the Taliban, providing training, weapons and other support.
    Link to WaPo:http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.d...NEWS/311119943 and Shashank's blog:http://shashankjoshi.wordpress.com/2...is-that-wasnt/

    Speculate away! I've added this comment to the blog:
    What if the nuclear weapons had been present in Afghanistan in September 2001?

    A lot depends on how many knew they were in country, whether in Kabul, Delhi, Islamabad, Tehran and Washington. More particularly how many knew exactly their location(s).

    For a moment let us assume others only knew after 9/11. In the heated atmosphere, in the USA and beyond it is easy to speculate that the USA would have struck first if the targets had been identified. Even today a vague sign that AQ plus have a WMD intention sends the USA into hyper-drive, let alone has a capability.

    Pakistan I expect would have swiftly withdrawn any such weapons and signalled that clearly to “interested parties”. Adding it had been a low-level decision and was a big mistake.

    Hopefully those “far more in the know” can answer.
    davidbfpo

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    Default

    Possibly one outcome, in the face of what could be perceived as gross negligence with WMD, would have been an international move to shut down the Pakistani nuclear programme - using all elements of national power. This could have changed the whole dynamic of Pakistani support to insurgents in Afghanistan as well...

  9. #9
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Pakistan collapses: how will others respond?

    A 'What If' question. Instability in Pakistan has long been a "given" and every so often it appears to slide towards the precipice, then pulls away.

    I do recall, now some years ago, speculation about the (in)security of the Pakistani nuclear weapons stockpile and what should happen if nation-state, notably the military, lost both the capability and will to keep them secure. That is one issue.

    Pakistan is not just a nuclear-armed state. It has a complex relationship with its neighbours, notably with India and with China and the USA. Not to overlook Saudi Arabia, especially as former and present leaders like to have long stays there or in the Gulf states - as guests.

    Personally I think if the nuclear weapons, foreign embassies and resident or visiting foreign nationals are safeguarded in an emergency no-one would want to be actively involved.
    davidbfpo

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    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    Default

    If the nukes and all those other people could be safeguard then the state wouldn't be collapsing.

    If there is ever any serious doubt that those nukes can't be controlled, I can see no way at all that India won't act to grab them. India cannot take any chances those things could go walkabout because their most likely target would be India.

    Unless a miracle happens and the Pak Army/ISI can be discredited to the extent they lose their privileged place in Pakistani society, there seems to be no way at all that all this will end well. It is very a much a pity that our best chance to influence things in that direction would to have not been complete fools in Afghanistan. But we blew it.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Default

    What of the possibility of Pakistani Army/ISI ambition to retain political/economic/military power and relevancy by leasing an IRBM Regiment's worth of nuclear warheads to Saudi Arabia once Iran goes nuclear?

    With the US leaving Afghanistan and Pakistan losing leverage to extort logistical occupation tax/royalties from the US, and thus the ability for the US to seek closer alignment with India, I would think Pakistan's behavior in the future could mimic GCC behavior.

    Which means less "by, with, thru" and more "around, without, and in spite of".

    As I understand it, Pakistan has earned mercenary income from the Saudi state via many Pakistani military working on behalf of the Saudi state and that maybe Saudi played a role in funding Pakistan's nuclear program(directly or indirectly).

    I would think a closer Saudi/Pakistani partnership, with a possible nuclear angle, quietly backed by China is more than just a possibility?

    Pakistan's Army/ISI stay geopolitically relevant and solvent.

    Saudi regime continuity is better insured.

    Or do I need to take some crazy pills?

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    Default

    I wrote this in more optimistic times, but it may still have some relevance(when i get some time, I hope to do a follow up):

    http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...-omar-ali.html

    Last paras:

    So much for the optimistic version. Since this is a post about Pakistan, it cannot end without some pessimism. The most dangerous element in Pakistan today is not the Islamist fanatics. It is the rise of China. Not because the rise of China threatens Pakistan or because Chinese hyper-capitalism or cheap Chinese products threaten our industry or our social peace or any such thing, but because it may inflate the egos of the military high command to the point that they lose contact with reality and try a high jump for which we are not yet ready (and may never be ready). It’s not that the high jump will get anywhere, but that the attempt may lead us into more trouble than we can handle.

    I say this because GHQ, for all its pragmatic pretensions, has been known to overestimate their skill and underestimate their opponents. If China was not truly a rising power, and if Pakistan did not have some real assets and advantages, we might have been safer in the long run. But since there is an element of truth in the paknationalists notions about China and the changing global balance of power, they may lose their balance. All I am saying is GHQ is prone to flying off on a self-generated hot air pocket even when the situation does not encourage such optimism. When the situation actually has some positive aspects, there may be no restraining them. But, I remain an optimist. I think our own weaknesses may protect us from the fate of a much stronger and more capable country (Germany in 1940).
    - See more at: http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd....rnWXbnRj.dpuf

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