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Thread: Use of nukes by Pakistan? fact and fiction

  1. #1
    Council Member marct's Avatar
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    Default Use of nukes by Pakistan? fact and fiction

    From MEMRI -

    Senior Pakistani Newspaper Editor: We Should Not Hesitate To Use Nuclear Weapons to Take Kashmir from India

    In an interview on the Waqt television channel, that was published by the mainstream right-wing Urdu daily Roznama Nawa-i-Waqt, senior Pakistani newspaper editor Majeed Nizami discussed Kashmir's importance to Pakistan, called it “the jugular vein” of Pakistan, and added that Pakistan should not hesitate to use nuclear weapons to take it from India.
    Sic Bisquitus Disintegrat...
    Marc W.D. Tyrrell, Ph.D.
    Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies,
    Senior Research Fellow,
    The Canadian Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies, NPSIA
    Carleton University
    http://marctyrrell.com/

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Crazies come out

    Just as Pakistan tries to return to democracy a newspaper editor says this, simply amazing. This is nothing more than a distraction from the real issue, the governance of Pakistan. Threatening the use of nuclear weapons will cause some Indians to see only evil comes from Pakistan, leaving aside the practicalities of any threat.

    Almost akin to "shouting fire in a crowded cinema". Free speech has a price.

    davidbfpo

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    Council Member Danny's Avatar
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    Default Unable to focus ...

    This editor must have an attention problem. Given Pakistan's troubles in NWFP and FATA, to worry one whit about Kashmir right now is akin to one worrying over whether he fed his dog today when his child is drowning.

    Simply amazing.

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    Council Member marct's Avatar
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    What I find worrying is that it *might* act as a unifying focus for inside Pakistan on the old Soviet model of "problems at home? Cause trouble abroad".
    Sic Bisquitus Disintegrat...
    Marc W.D. Tyrrell, Ph.D.
    Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies,
    Senior Research Fellow,
    The Canadian Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies, NPSIA
    Carleton University
    http://marctyrrell.com/

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    Council Member Ron Humphrey's Avatar
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    Question Also might be

    Quote Originally Posted by marct View Post
    What I find worrying is that it *might* act as a unifying focus for inside Pakistan on the old Soviet model of "problems at home? Cause trouble abroad".
    An attempt at introducing factors which would complicate our somewhat tenuous relationship which the military by placing us on an opposing side. Their military has people they have to work with to and the PC requirements could get really convoluted real quick on how to address such things.

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    This editor saying this is not surprising. He manages the major mainstream right-wing media in Pakistan. He's previously said the only solution that will work in Kashmir is force and has justified pretty much any violent act toward that end.

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    SWP, 23 Jun 09: Pakistan as a Nuclear Power: Nuclear Risks, Regional Conflicts and the Dominant Role of the Military
    .....our study deals with three questions of overriding importance:
    • How secure are Pakistan's nuclear weapons and nuclear facilities?

    • How stable is the domestic political situation in Pakistan?

    • What are the likely prospects for the Pakistan-India conflict?

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    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Default

    Certainly not the first time this has been said. Both Indian and Pakistani presses stoke hardline nationalism for the most part.

    This editor must have an attention problem. Given Pakistan's troubles in NWFP and FATA, to worry one whit about Kashmir right now is akin to one worrying over whether he fed his dog today when his child is drowning.
    A good reminder that politics does not stop because the U.S. believes something is an emergency. Kashmir has been an obsession of Pakistani nationalism since its founding.

    Remember that for most Punjabis, the NWFP and FATA are as far away mentally as Mississippi is from Oregon. Historically they are the most backward and isolated bits of the country, outside of perhaps Balochistan, and treated as more of a colonial possession than a constituent part of the country.

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    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by tequila View Post
    Remember that for most Punjabis, the NWFP and FATA are as far away mentally as Mississippi is from Oregon.
    A little culture shock going on there

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    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default Nah, I been to Orygun. More Rednecks in Portland than

    there are in Jackson and Hattiesburg combined. Only differences are that out west they don't eat catfish, aren't as polite and they talk funny...

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Opening the door on the nukes

    Just found this on a BBC website and may be of interest, let alone the opening tale that pakistan's nukes have been dispersed: http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/markurban/

    davidbfpo

  12. #12
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Pakistan's nuclear weapons

    Pakistan's possession of nuclear weapons is an important aspect of her relations with friends and neighbours. One that some suspect is a clear and future danger if Pakistan changes course. In fact I heard a retired US diplomat on the BBC a month ago remark "Why do we pay so much attention to Iran, when Pakistan has nukes".

    So here is an article by a UK-based analyst 'Pakistan, NATO, and tactical nuclear weapons: two of a kind?', which was spotted today:http://shashankjoshi.wordpress.com/2...two-of-a-kind/

    In the opening:
    The rationale for Pakistan’s use of such weapons is familiar to most, and often invokes NATO’s nuclear doctrine. It is worth understanding how exactly NATO’s nuclear thinking applies to Pakistan, and what this implies for how its arsenal might develop and how India might respond to this.
    Near the end:
    Whereas NATO was a multinational alliance with a variety of perspectives on where the nuclear threshold ought to lie, Pakistani decision-making – whatever its pathologies – is certainly simpler and more responsive. India cannot rely on Pakistani hesitation, even though it, India, would surely calibrate the level of force so as to make any Pakistani decision a difficult one.

    If Pakistan does place increasing stress on limited nuclear options, and tactical nuclear weapons in particular, then understanding the differences from the NATO precedent – the ones discussed here, and plenty of others – will be as important as seeing the similarities.
    davidbfpo

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default The Post 9/11 Afghan Missile Crisis (That Wasn’t)

    A counter-factual question raised by RUSI's Shashank Joshi, so hat tip to him. What if Pakistani nuclear weapons had been present in Afghanistan in September 2001? Ridiculous idea, but he has found this unsupported WaPo report from November 2001:
    Pakistani fears of an Indian attack on its nuclear sites were so great in the summer of 1999, after Pakistani-supported guerrillas invaded Indian territory, that military officers here secretly contacted Taliban officials about the possibility of moving some nuclear assets westward to neighboring Afghanistan for safekeeping, according to a recently retired Pakistani general officer familiar with the talks.

    ”The option was actively discussed with the Taliban after some indications emerged that India may open hostilities at the eastern border,” the retired official said. ‘‘The Taliban accepted the requests with open arms.”

    The former official said the talks were ”exploratory” and said that no nuclear-related assets were placed in Afghanistan. At the time, Pakistan’s military and intelligence services had close relations with the Taliban, providing training, weapons and other support.
    Link to WaPo:http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.d...NEWS/311119943 and Shashank's blog:http://shashankjoshi.wordpress.com/2...is-that-wasnt/

    Speculate away! I've added this comment to the blog:
    What if the nuclear weapons had been present in Afghanistan in September 2001?

    A lot depends on how many knew they were in country, whether in Kabul, Delhi, Islamabad, Tehran and Washington. More particularly how many knew exactly their location(s).

    For a moment let us assume others only knew after 9/11. In the heated atmosphere, in the USA and beyond it is easy to speculate that the USA would have struck first if the targets had been identified. Even today a vague sign that AQ plus have a WMD intention sends the USA into hyper-drive, let alone has a capability.

    Pakistan I expect would have swiftly withdrawn any such weapons and signalled that clearly to “interested parties”. Adding it had been a low-level decision and was a big mistake.

    Hopefully those “far more in the know” can answer.
    davidbfpo

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    Default

    Possibly one outcome, in the face of what could be perceived as gross negligence with WMD, would have been an international move to shut down the Pakistani nuclear programme - using all elements of national power. This could have changed the whole dynamic of Pakistani support to insurgents in Afghanistan as well...

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Something to NOT look forward to in 2014 plus

    From War on The Rocks a glimpse into the future, which is rather bleak IMHO as the Shia-Sunni civil war escalates and the title says it all:
    Confronting Reality: The Saudi-Pakistani Nuclear Nexus
    It ends with:
    If American efforts and promises fail, then Washington must accept that Islamabad will transfer some form of nuclear weapons capability to Saudi Arabia. Washington’s best policy option is be realistic rather than idealistic and maintain sufficient diplomatic and military relevance in Islamabad and Riyadh to limit the impact of this transfer on Israel’s threat calculus. America should prefer that any physical transfer of capability be limited to aircraft delivery systems and be in small numbers. These features would be the least threatening to Israel in both the short and long term, reinforcing a long-standing Pakistani nuclear weapons posture imperative.
    Link:http://warontherocks.com/2013/12/con...nuclear-nexus/
    davidbfpo

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