Then again, for every child who falls back on the "it's possible" line, there's a "skeptic" convinced special and general relativity must be wrong simply because it is obvious, in his frame of reference, that time is absolute. What makes the crackpot and the kid's claims stand out is there's such an abundance of evidence to the contrary that it's absurd to treat them seriously.

If that were the case here, you'd expect to see four numbers--at least from one camp--given how passionately both sides claim to be right. Two for the expected risk and variance, and two for the expected cost and variance. We've seen agreement on neither. Ever. From any perspective. In any form. Period.

If there is another way to determine whether or not a threat warrants an adventure, please share.