Michele Flournoy on strategy

[John T. Fishel]

with you on all this.

Consider this one: John Abizaid knows the culture of the region as well or better than any military or foreign service officer. Yet, his regional strategy as applied to both Iraq and Afghanistan was seriously flawed.

Charles Lindblom, an economist who was also President of the American Political Science Association, wrote a classic article called "The Science of Muddling Through" which states American (Western) policy reality as well as it has ever been stated. Just when we think we really know how to do something we often find that muddling through is the best we can do. It's just that some folk do it better than others...

Cheers

JohnT

[Ken White]

with you on all this.

Penalty of being (a) old; and (b) cynical. Or is that sinnable...

Consider this one: John Abizaid knows the culture of the region as well or better than any military or foreign service officer. Yet, his regional strategy as applied to both Iraq and Afghanistan was seriously flawed.

Funny you mention that. Great minds. I was thinking about him and that earlier when I posted. I agree with that statement -- and I've long wondered why it's true. My suspicion is that he was constrained by high order National or Army politics but I can't figure out all the factors. I think it will come out eventually but I do know that not only I but several others who knew him when were really surprised at his near invisibility.

He wasn't a micromanager which is good but he was really unusually quiet and unassertive during his Tampa tour.

Charles Lindblom, an economist who was also President of the American Political Science Association, wrote a classic article called "The Science of Muddling Through" which states American (Western) policy reality as well as it has ever been stated. Just when we think we really know how to do something we often find that muddling through is the best we can do. It's just that some folk do it better than others...

Unfortunately. The domestic political process is of course the big impactor and our venal and corrupt political parties which used to care at least a little bit about the Nation have, IMO, converted to solely focusing on their wants and hopeful primacy; that worsened the already disruptive four / eight year cycle.

Correct on the some do it better than others and our penchant for changing people in jobs so frequently means that it's really hard to figure out where the better muddlers are -- and when you do find one or two, they move...

Thanks for mentioning the article -- I'll track it down

[slapout9]

Hi John (I think you know this guy),It's on here somewhere but I can't remember where but it is a handbook for planning Operations by Dr.Jack Kem...who I think is SWC Dr. Jack. Anyway in his handbook he says in there somewhere that Strategy is often expressed as Ends, Ways and Means but it is often understood better as Ends+Means then develop the Ways. I probably screwed that all up but it is a better way to say and understand it. And not to disappoint anybody also in the handbook is a great section about using Wardens Rings from an Army point of view. which also works when you are doing Grand Strategy.

[SteveMetz]

Hi John (I think you know this guy),It's on here somewhere but I can't remember where but it is a handbook for planning Operations by Dr.Jack Kem...who I think is SWC Dr. Jack. Anyway in his handbook he says in there somewhere that Strategy is often expressed as Ends, Ways and Means but it is often understood better as Ends+Means then develop the Ways. I probably screwed that all up but it is a better way to say and understand it. And not to disappoint anybody also in the handbook is a great section about using Wardens Rings from an Army point of view. which also works when you are doing Grand Strategy.

Let me throw in my two cents worth (which, at current global exchange rates, is worth about 60% of that).

I've always felt that the "ends, ways, means" construct (which, the best I can figure, was devised by Art Lykke at the Army War College, but was based heavily on longstanding ideas) is useful but incomplete. In particular, it doesn't account for expected costs and risks.

I think that was EXACTLY the flawed strategic thinking that led us into Iraq. The logic went something like this: "Saddam Hussein is a threat, therefore he should be removed." The strategic logic should have been: "Saddam Hussein is a threat but in order to decide how to address that threat, we must weigh the extent of the threat against the expected costs and risks of various methods of addressing it."

What the administration and its supporters did (and continue to do today) is simply focus on the extent of the threat and suggest that it's self evident that a threat should be addressed by the most effective method available rather than by the method that makes the most strategic sense. In other words, we distorted the logic of strategy and are paying the price for it.

Let me elaborate with an analogy: if I decide I want a new car, the most effective way of getting one is to pay full sticker price and put it on my American Express card. But given the expected risks and costs of this technique, it is not the one that makes the most strategic sense.

Break, break. As Monty Python often said, "Now for something entirely different." On the uber theme of this thread--I think the only logical locus for grand strategic thinking and planning is the National Security Council. Problem is, since Kissinger, the NSC has evolved into a current ops organization rather than a strategic planning one. My belief is that it both needs to revive its capacity for long range strategic planning, to include development of its own think tank to develop "whole of government" strategic concepts.

[Dr Jack]

Hi John (I think you know this guy),It's on here somewhere but I can't remember where but it is a handbook for planning Operations by Dr.Jack Kem...who I think is SWC Dr. Jack. Anyway in his handbook he says in there somewhere that Strategy is often expressed as Ends, Ways and Means but it is often understood better as Ends+Means then develop the Ways. I probably screwed that all up but it is a better way to say and understand it. And not to disappoint anybody also in the handbook is a great section about using Wardens Rings from an Army point of view. which also works when you are doing Grand Strategy.

Thanks for the advertisement... here's a link to the book:

http://cgsc.cdmhost.com/cgi-bin/show...11&CISOPTR=377

I'm overdue for a rewrite -- for the next edition I'll include MOE/MOP and expand the wargaming section.