Michele Flournoy on strategy

[slapout9]

Hi John (I think you know this guy),It's on here somewhere but I can't remember where but it is a handbook for planning Operations by Dr.Jack Kem...who I think is SWC Dr. Jack. Anyway in his handbook he says in there somewhere that Strategy is often expressed as Ends, Ways and Means but it is often understood better as Ends+Means then develop the Ways. I probably screwed that all up but it is a better way to say and understand it. And not to disappoint anybody also in the handbook is a great section about using Wardens Rings from an Army point of view. which also works when you are doing Grand Strategy.

[SteveMetz]

Hi John (I think you know this guy),It's on here somewhere but I can't remember where but it is a handbook for planning Operations by Dr.Jack Kem...who I think is SWC Dr. Jack. Anyway in his handbook he says in there somewhere that Strategy is often expressed as Ends, Ways and Means but it is often understood better as Ends+Means then develop the Ways. I probably screwed that all up but it is a better way to say and understand it. And not to disappoint anybody also in the handbook is a great section about using Wardens Rings from an Army point of view. which also works when you are doing Grand Strategy.

Let me throw in my two cents worth (which, at current global exchange rates, is worth about 60% of that).

I've always felt that the "ends, ways, means" construct (which, the best I can figure, was devised by Art Lykke at the Army War College, but was based heavily on longstanding ideas) is useful but incomplete. In particular, it doesn't account for expected costs and risks.

I think that was EXACTLY the flawed strategic thinking that led us into Iraq. The logic went something like this: "Saddam Hussein is a threat, therefore he should be removed." The strategic logic should have been: "Saddam Hussein is a threat but in order to decide how to address that threat, we must weigh the extent of the threat against the expected costs and risks of various methods of addressing it."

What the administration and its supporters did (and continue to do today) is simply focus on the extent of the threat and suggest that it's self evident that a threat should be addressed by the most effective method available rather than by the method that makes the most strategic sense. In other words, we distorted the logic of strategy and are paying the price for it.

Let me elaborate with an analogy: if I decide I want a new car, the most effective way of getting one is to pay full sticker price and put it on my American Express card. But given the expected risks and costs of this technique, it is not the one that makes the most strategic sense.

Break, break. As Monty Python often said, "Now for something entirely different." On the uber theme of this thread--I think the only logical locus for grand strategic thinking and planning is the National Security Council. Problem is, since Kissinger, the NSC has evolved into a current ops organization rather than a strategic planning one. My belief is that it both needs to revive its capacity for long range strategic planning, to include development of its own think tank to develop "whole of government" strategic concepts.

[Dr Jack]

Hi John (I think you know this guy),It's on here somewhere but I can't remember where but it is a handbook for planning Operations by Dr.Jack Kem...who I think is SWC Dr. Jack. Anyway in his handbook he says in there somewhere that Strategy is often expressed as Ends, Ways and Means but it is often understood better as Ends+Means then develop the Ways. I probably screwed that all up but it is a better way to say and understand it. And not to disappoint anybody also in the handbook is a great section about using Wardens Rings from an Army point of view. which also works when you are doing Grand Strategy.

Thanks for the advertisement... here's a link to the book:

http://cgsc.cdmhost.com/cgi-bin/show...11&CISOPTR=377

I'm overdue for a rewrite -- for the next edition I'll include MOE/MOP and expand the wargaming section.