Bill Lind's Nightmare Scenario

[Cavguy]

[url]

I find this pretty implausible, and I know a lot of folks on here are not Lind fans, but does anyone think this could actually happen?

No.

It's packed with erroneous assumptions treated as fact. Even if by some miracle the Iranians massed an assault into south Iraq, Jordan would likely open its roads to supply our forces as a bulwark against Iran, and probably Turkey would as well, at least if they want their foreign aid. None of those countries want an Iranian dominated ME. The Saudis wouldn't sit idly by as well.

That, and the idea that the Army is somehow utterly incapable of getting together to provide a good fight. And what Hersh says above about a USAF/USN/USMC Air "highway of death". Oh yeah, that Iranian Air force will fight us to a standstill. Where does he get that an army that couldn't overcome Iraq in 8 years (and we all saw how tough THAT army was against the USA) would be able to operationally outmaneuver and oufight our force, even with it having become more "COIN" centric. The Iranians are not the German General Staff by any stretch.

What units don’t get overrun by Iranian armor or Shiite militia end up in the Baghdad Kessel.

I've been assaulted by thousands of Shiite militia. It didn't work out well for them. They haven't been able to overrun anybody, or even inflict serious casualties. Our PUC for the Sadr Rebellion credits my unit with over 1500 militiamen killed. We lost seven soldiers. They didn't even knock out one of our M1's. And don't get me started on "Iranian Armor" overruning us.

[Entropy]

Unless someone here has beaten me to the punch, I'm calling my publisher right away to get the rights to this great fictional story.

Besides what others have said, does Lind really think we'd sit idly by while Iran preps and masses divisions at the border? Aparrently we are incapable of doing all the things to Iran that Lind believes Iran is capable of doing to us.

[Ron Humphrey]

that in reality they would probably have their hands more than full trying to deal with an constantly beefed up IA, IP who would probably much prefer larger conflict to the COIN ops their currently having to perform. And thats assuming some of the militia wouldn't join in AGAINST IRAN. There are so many ways this could go so much differently than what he states I'm not really sure why he bothered.

[selil]

If anything was going to happen Iran would infiltrate KBR and electrocute our soldiers while they were showering or poison their drinking water. Nyah. Never happen though that were be more likened to something like fourth generation warfare.

[Ron Humphrey]

If anything was going to happen Iran would infiltrate KBR and electrocute our soldiers while they were showering or poison their drinking water. Nyah. Never happen though that were be more likened to something like fourth generation warfare.

But they'd still git beat
End of story

[William F. Owen]

Iran sends two to four regular army armor and mech divisions across the border. Their objective is to pocket American forces in and around Baghdad

How? This just ignores all of the teaching of any school of operational analysis I am aware of.

I submit, as the Manoeuvre Warfare Handbook and 4GW concept were all based on poor history, this is hypothesis is based on a poor understanding of modern operations.

However, never underestimate the propensity for so-called "military theorists" to keep pressing the alarm bell in order to stay in view.

[jcustis]

Iran sends two to four regular army armor and mech divisions across the border. Their objective is to pocket American forces in and around Baghdad

How? This just ignores all of the teaching of any school of operational analysis I am aware of.

I submit, as the Manoeuvre Warfare Handbook and 4GW concept were all based on poor history, this is hypothesis is based on a poor understanding of modern operations.

However, never underestimate the propensity for so-called "military theorists" to keep pressing the alarm bell in order to stay in view.

Thank you for pulling back the curtain to reveal that the wizard is just some clumsy, pitifull guy .