NGIC, 24 Nov 09: Complex Environments - An Alternative Approach to the Assessment of Insurgencies and their Social Terrain
Part 1: Identifying Decisive Factors
This assessment is the first in a two-part series that outlines additional principles for intelligence preparation of the operational environment (IPOE), information operations (IO), and strategic intelligence assessment. This assessment represents an alternative to many current approaches to behavioral and motivational assessment. The approach uses widely replicated findings from psychology and neuroscience research to explain and assess the likelihood and impact of large-scale and/or significant changes in the behavior of large populations. This assessment outlines why many current approaches to analyzing the likelihood and impact of popular movements, while often useful, lead to problems in both analysis and implementation. It also defines a viable alternative for explaining, forecasting, and making decisions about populations. The second assessment in the series will lay out specific, practical guidelines for implementing the approach described in this assessment.
NGIC, 31 Mar 10: Complex Environments - An Alternative Approach to the Assessment of Insurgencies and Their Social Terrain
Part 2: Constraint-Based Analytic Procedures
This assessment offers and explains a new set of analytic procedures for assessing the behavior of local populations (LPs). It is based on the approach set out in Complex Environments - An Alternative Approach to the Assessment of Insurgencies and their Social Terrain Part 1: Identifying Decisive Factors. The procedures identify and analyze LP behavior in a way that facilitates the capability to target and to alter the influences that make the behavior likely. The procedures are designed to achieve both the short-term goal of minimizing undesirable behaviors and the long-term goal of encouraging desirable behaviors, particularly by improving the ability to derive decision advantage from LP intelligence.