Quote Originally Posted by Rank amateur View Post
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Near as I can tell, anyone who wants to withdraw troops is admitting defeat and anyone who wants to stay supports victory. There doesn't seem to be a very big "weigh the costs and benefits" camp and those people seem to end up being quickly labelled defeatists. It might change after our election but both candidates have a vested interest in keeping the debate binary until then. I don't really see any candidate saying "I just saw a 15 slide PowerPoint that made me change my mind."
I suppose one could look at it that way. I have a strong personal dislike of the terms victory and defeat attached to any COIN or nation building effort. The best one can hope for is a satisfactory outcome -- that obviously can vary dependent upon outlook.

In any event, I think it's safe to say that if we do withdraw precipitously, the Islamists will claim 'victory' and thus trumpet our 'defeat.' That can have a detrimental long term effect albeit not probably a fatal one -- so any cost benefit analysis should consider that in some detail.

What the candidates now say and what they will do if elected and getting all the detailed classified briefings are more than likely to be quite different things. I was almost looking forward to Kerry being elected in '04 so I could watch him back and fill in December. You're correct that both do have an interest in keeping it binary until then, though.
Interestingly, I found a game theory simulation that suggested we should be lowering our definition of victory. Which would suggest that I'm wrong or the country isn't being rationale.
Americans. Not being rational? Surely you jest, Sir!

Heh -- I thought that was an American specialty...

In fairness to them, though, in this case they're using the worlds that ignorant politicians and media (and even the random General...) use. That misue of the words has skewed the meaning of them beyond all hope of redemption for this one, I'm afraid. This may not be the most politicized war we've ever had but it sure is the one with the widest communication (of sorts...).