The Basrah Gambit

[Ken White]

This is not a good idea:

Originally Posted by Ken
A: ok here's your money back sorry bout that

B: You have to give it a little more time because we're working behind the scenes to make blue the new purple

Cwhatever your answer is since i'm pretty sure you won't pick either A or B)

This medium doesn't lend itself to the subtleties that direct communication allows and Ken didn't say that.

EDITED TO ADD: Other than not understanding your meaning, I don't personally have a problem with the technique but on an open board, it can cause confusion. Someone else sees it, takes it out of context and a month from now I get accused of saying "You have to give it a little more time..." I respond, correctly, that I've never said that, then he produces the 'quote.' no big thing but I try to quote people verbatim to avoid such problems.

That said, I suggest that I did not and would not offer you any money back because I have none of yours; if, as I suspect, you meant something sort of allegorical by that, it went right over my head???

I am not suggesting that you 'give it a little more time.' My view has been and is that we'll be there for many years, so no reason for me to ask for more time. No attempt to make anything into something it is not. I don't think anybody in DC or Iraq is trying to do that and I know I'm not. If, by that comment, you meant that what the Islamists say about victory or defeat is irrelevant, all I can do is suggest that you might want to give that some thought.

IOW, I think your message got lost in the medium...

B, but when they asked "how long is a little more time?" I'd give them an answer, because this is what I do for a living and I know what a reasonable time is.

And what would your answer be? Ten weeks? Ten months? Ten years? Make it too long and you'll lose, make it too short and you may get stuck with something you can't deliver. So what is your reasonable time? You do messages for a living, if you fail, your client may lose a buck or two and get a tax write off. If we fail in Iraq, even more lives than it's already cost will be at stake. You do it for a living but are lives at risk if you err? not to mention that the ol' fog of war is awfully hard to see through -- and harder to predict.

Not that Politicians don't ignore that and err...

I know how to set metrics and see if we're on the right track or not. I also know that if I don't get results it's because I screwed up. (None of my clients have ever made a mistake.)

Be nice if it were that simple. First, metrics and war do not mesh well; too many intangibles and unforeseeable unknowns. Second, a lot of of folks who are also good at metrics have set or are setting metrics on this one -- most have been wrong and I predict the next crop will be equally wrong.

Your clients must be politicians; they have the same ability -- every time there's a screw up it's never their fault...

We agree. (Although every time I say that, you say we don't.)

Then stop using the word!

I just think that once the commander in chief uses the terms victory and defeat it is extremely difficult to find middle ground.

Too true -- that's one of many reasons I object to the word, it sets up unreasonable -- even unrealizable -- expectations. Hate it when the Pols use it but they and the media I can excuse on grounds of ignorance. Harder to excuse the Generals who should know better.

Now that I think about it, that's probably a more accurate expression of what I meant initially. If we hypothetically came to an acceptable outcome, I don't think many people would accept it. They'd still be looking for victory or looking back at all the mistakes. (It goes back to seeing what you want, biases, self images, allegiances etc. All that spin doctor stuff that has it's uses but can also cause problems.)

Sure, that's the American way. The One third rule applies. 1/3 would object, 1/3 would agree and the middle third would split with a tilt to one side depending on how well, on balance, we came out of it. Always been that way and likely most always will. That's okay.