We agree that leaders are important. So are cadres (we middle-rankers) and also the mass of the populace. I believe a fair generalization (yes, there are exceptions) is that leaders are more motivated by ideology, cadres more by perceived opportunity, and the masses more by perceived security (or more realistically in these screwed-up environments, the better perceived insecurity - credit: M-A Legrange).

I believe that COL Jones has refined his position on Causation, Motivation and Causes (as contained in the Narratives) - see Distinguishing "Causes" from "causes" and Agreed as to what a cause is.

I have no position about the Saudi program cuz I don't have enough knowledge about it and no experience with it. I do know that the Saudi ideology is not that far removed from UBL's; but the "Causes" in their "Narratives" are quite different. As you correctly state:

The jihadis are actual a threat to the Saudi's existence. The jihadis want nothing more than to rule over their holy land.
The Powers That Be in the Kingdom are betting that their Narrative will beat AQ's Narrative. In confined conditions, that probably is a good bet; but whether that will stick once people are out of the program is something else.

In a way, this reminds me of our Socialist allies in the Cold War (certainly Marxist-based, but with a different Narrative than the Coms). That alliance won a few political battles and avoided some military battles.

Regards

Mike