Three years ago, I talked to retired Colonel living in Nepal. From what I gathered from him, if ever there was an insurgency that could have been quickly and easily defeated,
Three years ago, I talked to retired Colonel living in Nepal. From what I gathered from him, if ever there was an insurgency that could have been quickly and easily defeated,
It is interesting to know that the retired Colonel from Nepal felt that insurgency in Nepal could be eliminated quickly and easily.

Obviously, he would have inputs for this belief and one would surely desire to know what inputs led him to this conclusion.

On the other hand, Nepal theoretically has all the ingredients for a successful insurgency. And experience including mine, indicates that once an insurgency takes root, it is indeed well nigh impossible to defeat it, especially when external elements in all its facet play a role. And in terrain like in India and Nepal with similar economic, political and social backgrounds.

The present King, I believe, is actually hated since he is imperious and appears to have schemed to ensure that democracy does not succeed. His ruthless use of the Army is well known as is the loyalty of the Army to him. It is believed that the higher ranks are staffed by people screened for the loyalty to the monarchy. This I learnt from the many Nepalese who work in India and in the Indian Army in various economic levels of society. His son, Crown Prince Paras' activities including running over a popular singer has also made him a disliked figure. There are also alleged corruption charges against the monarchy as also the belief that the current King played a role in the massacre of the last King's family and this is widely believed.

In short, the monarchy which should have been the binding factor since he is taken as the incarnate of the Hindu God, Vishnu, was instead reviled. It is also a fact, that Nepali, Maoist or otherwise, is deeply religious in nature.

The infrastructure and the economy were barely sustainable. Yet the aspiration was high given the innumerably Nepalis who work in India, including in the Indian Army (a large majority have settled down in India too!) and who show dissatisfaction when home given the vast difference in the lifestyle and visible economic disparity of India and Nepal.

In addition, there is said to be a nexus with the Indian Maoists (who are of serious concern to India's security) and the spread of ‘revolutionary’ thoughts is believed to be enhanced as the Communist Chinese have about 69 projects in Nepal. Neighbouring West Bengal in India has been a Communist ruled State for over 23 years and the influence of these cadres cannot be ruled out. Therefore, the spread of radical political thought in a semi backward population was possible.

Lastly the terrain, mountainous and harsh with population far and between is ideal country for guerrilla activities.

As I see it, insurgency was coming and it came, even if none wanted to address the issue seriously.

Insurgency came and it has been squashed by the ballot. This is a good sign since the ‘face’ of the insurgent and their actions will be ‘overground’ and can be addressed in a democratic manner within and without Nepal.

Had the insurgency taken root, it may have been difficult to control. But ofcourse, I am not aware of the inputs that the Colonel of Nepal has, which may prove my surmise a trifle off course.

Of course, it is difficult to state if the Govt of Nepal seriously addressed the insurgency. Prima facie, whatever inputs are in the public domain, indicates that they did!