Nepal (catch all)

[Ken White]

Malaya and Kenya were. Rhodesia was. Viet Nam was. So was Iraq. In fact in the latter, aside from all the obvious signs which the Army War College study, State and the CIA predicted, Saddam himself told us. He publicly released all the prisoners in jails, told us he was going to arm the populace and put weapons and ammo everywhere and that the whole nation would arise to defeat us. Gave the two russian generals who suggested all that gold medals just before we went in. We all missed it or at least missed the total significance. Then compounded that felony by disbanding the Army and putting a bunch of political twits in the CPA -- which should never have been formed. We not only missed the warning signs, we exacerbated the problem by not knowing what to do once the battle for Baghdad was finished.

So we have a an Intel failure (in the sense of lack of force by the community in stating the indications adequately in their ceaseless effort to never be wrong...), followed by political failure, followed by military failure, leading to a full blown insurgency. Which, like most of them, will be fixed by military effort, followed by political improvements. On the Intel improvements, the jury's out...

I further suggest that all those I mention could have been avoided and rechannelled with little effort early on had not a little old fashioned hubris (or our stupid egos...) gotten in the way. I honestly have not paid that much attention to Nepal but I suspect that the same thing holds true.

[William F. Owen]

I further suggest that all those I mention could have been avoided and rechannelled with little effort early on had not a little old fashioned hubris (or our stupid egos...) gotten in the way. I honestly have not paid that much attention to Nepal but I suspect that the same thing holds true.

If I had more time, I'd bring myself up to speed on Nepal, but....

I think it took some time for the Thais to acknowledge that the "Insurgency in the South" was a real problem. Having said that, I it being an insurgency I know pretty well, why the Thai Army doesn't even do the basics, is an utter mystery to me.

As an aside, there are several very competent ex-British Army officers living in Thailand, two of whom have offered to help. One spoke with me at the COIN Study week at their staff collage, but that was it.

The Thais know what needs to be done, but they choose not to do it. I suspect Nepal had the same symptoms.

[Ken White]

wondrous strange. Circular logic is an intriguing thing. They usually seem to get there but the route is in my observation often unfathomable.

[Ray]

Nepal Peace Plan May Slow as Army Won't Accept Rebels (Update1)

By Jay Shankar

April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Nepal's army said it will refuse to accept former communist rebels into its ranks while they remain ``politically motivated and indoctrinated,'' a move that may delay the Himalayan nation's peace process,,,

Puspa Kamal Dahal, the leader of CPN (Maoist), on Jan. 9 accused the government of delaying the integration of his fighters into the army, saying the holdup may harm the accord that ended the civil war in which 13,000 people died.,,,

Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala said in the same month he opposes former guerrillas joining the army because he doesn't want the institution to be politicized. He suggested former rebels be recruited into a security force for industries.

Nepal faced a similar problem in 1951 when fighters of the Nepali Congress were to be integrated, Lal said. The Nepal Police was formed as a result and Nepali Congress members recruited. ``There was only the army until then,'' he said......

The Maoist fighters, who follow the ideology of former Chinese leader Mao Zedong, may become part of a security force or used to protect national parks and resources or to guard television and telephone towers and radio stations, Lal said......

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Q&refer=france

If the Communists "revolutionaries" are inducted into the Army, it will create serious problems.

Therefore, one has to watch how things pan out,

[JJackson]

I don't know how big an army Nepal thinks it needs.
The CPN look like they are going to be able to form a government with an absolute majority, without coalition. If the Army dont think they can work with their former enemies it does not bode well with them taking orders from those same former enemies as their political masters. Might they not have a more reliable army if they keep the 32,500 that were on their side and disband the Kings army that were against them - or make them park rangers.

[Ray]

They could.

But the consequence would be grave for the sucontinental stabilty!!

It is scary!!

[Ray]

The Indian TV news indicates that King Gyanendra of Nepal fears for his safety since the Maoists have won.

The Indian govt has stated that there is no reason for the King to be concerned, though if there is any request, the Indian govt will grant asylum provided he guarantees that he will not indulge in political activities.