Nepal (catch all)

[Ray]

It is a very delicate and tricky situation; more so, it the guerillas are taken into the Army!

It is the power hungry and ruthless King who has led this situation to come to pass to this sorry state!

One must watch the situation carefully.

With Tibet up in flames, China would love a fraternal buffer!

[Ray]

MISSION POSSIBLE - The new Nepal needs to recognize that it cannot do without India
Sunanda K. Datta-Ray

The spotlight that has shifted from Shri Panch Gyanendra Bir Bikram Shah Deva should rightly fall on Sitaram Yechury, to whom the United Progressive Alliance government virtually outsourced India’s relations with Nepal. Since he has been the principal interlocutor between the two countries, our expectations of a stable and responsible regime that is mindful of India’s interests on a strategic border are largely concentrated in him. Much will depend on how Yechury has presented the Indian national position, as distinct from his own ideological inclinations, to Prachanda and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist).

Strictly speaking, the transformation of the world’s only Hindu kingdom into a republic is no concern of India’s. Forms of governance are internal matters. But since domestic evolution is intertwined with foreign policy, especially for a landlocked country whose fortunes are so closely linked with those of its southern neighbour, New Delhi will carefully watch how the new men in Kathmandu conduct themselves in the coming weeks and months. The jubilant crowds we see on television screens speak of relief and hope. Since neither is a permanent factor in the merry-go-round of politics, those crowds can just as easily turn either into the Maoist mobs that have ravaged Nepal for years or protesters to be mown down like the civil war’s 13,000 victims.......

[Ray]

Monarchy gone, but no consensus on government

Nava Thakuria
12 June 2008

As the King vacates the throne, Nepal's political parties squabble for power

More at:
http://asiasentinel.com/index.php?op...1254&Itemid=31

The old guards of Nepal politics are not ready to abdicate their space to the new kid on the block, no matter what be its popularity.

Troubled times ahead.

[Jedburgh]

A pair of reports from ICG, 3 Jul 08:

Nepal's Election: A Peaceful Revolution?

.....Nepal’s elections were a major step forward in the peace process, and for this all political parties and institutions – from the Election Commission and security personnel to civil society groups who kept up pressure for a free and fair vote – deserve much credit. The fact that they were also a triumph of democracy owes more to the Maoists and new parties such as the MJF than the old “democratic” mainstream. For all the Maoists’ use of intimidation and the MJF’s policy flip-flopping, it was their campaigns that allowed voters to wield power, not only delivering a more representative assembly but voting out many unloved old faces that most citizens had thought they would be burdened with in perpetuity.

However, the results have left a confused political landscape with the potential for many future disputes, even the resumption of conflict. The Maoist victory was surprisingly clean in terms of their behaviour but much less clean in pure numbers: commanding just over one third of the new CA, they have the power to block anything but can achieve nothing without support from other parties. Their opponents have shown little willingness to recognise their defeat or to smooth the way towards completion of the peace process and the writing of a new constitution. The way in which political leaders cope with the political challenges of the election aftermath will determine whether the revolutionary result delivers peace and change or further conflict.

Nepal's New Political Landscape

.....The aftermath of the election has been marred by the behaviour of powerful losers. In a reversal of the normal grieving process, the NC and UML’s initial acceptance has given way to stronger denial. Both they and the leaders of other parties have been happy to see power quickly returned to its usual locus – in the hands of a few men who will take all major decisions based on private horse-trading, without consulting their own parties, let alone the elected CA or the people at large.

For some, the rapid return to politics as usual may be reassuring. Back-room haggling is, after all, better than armed warfare. For a prime minister and party still in office nearly three months after a crushing election defeat, life must seem surprisingly sweet. But parties who pride themselves on blocking the Maoists’ ascendancy should be aware that they are also dishonouring a clear popular mandate. For the CPN(M), the jury is still out on whether its peaceful revolution strategy will mark an ideological triumph, and it have much to do to win trust through reformed behaviour. But a peaceful revolution is precisely what millions of Nepalis have been demanding for years, if not decades. As the CA elections showed, they are perfectly capable of using non-violent protest and the ballot box to punish those who betray their aspirations.

[davidbfpo]

I spotted an unusual headline this week 'Why do Nepal's former rebels want to join the army?' and returned today to read it fully. Nepal has been at peace since 2006, after a Maoist-inspired insurgency and has had five years of negotiation over the peace agreement, notably the full demobilisation of the 19,000 insurgents in camps:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-15542959

The 'Why do' link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-15922387

By Monday, government monitors had interviewed around 16,000 rebels. At the last count, more than half had opted for the army while most of the others went for voluntary retirement...

..Exactly why she and so many of her comrades are so keen to sign up is a mystery given that most former fighters will not get senior positions in the army and where their mandate is limited to a strictly non-combat role.

The agreement states that former Maoists will become forest guards, disaster management personnel and security forces at industrial units...

...The flood of fighters wanting to join the army, however, demonstrates the weak hold the hard-liners within the Maoist party have on their followers.

In a subsequent BBC report it appears the matter may - once again - delay implementation of the peace agreement:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-15981461

[davidbfpo]

Some insight into Nepal:

Global Poverty project, Gabriel Neely-Streit speaks with conflict and reconstruction expert Prof. Paul Jackson, who heads the International Development Department at the University of Birmingham in the UK. Over the past three years, Prof. Jackson has been advising authorities in Nepal on integrating some 20,000 Maoist former guerrillas into the Nepali Army or civilian life. Here, he discusses the challenges and rewards of his direct-impact work in Nepal and elsewhere, and how it has affected and been shaped by his academic research.

Link:http://academicsstand.org/impact-sto...ters-in-nepal/ and more on his blog:http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research...ogs/nepal.aspx

[davidbfpo]

News from Nepal rarely gets on the front page and I missed this completly until a Foreign Affairs alert landed:

The centrist Nepali Congress party won the most votes in last week's general elections, latest results announced on Thursday show.

The Maoists - who formed the single largest party in the previous Constituent Assembly - have been relegated to third place.

In many places this popular rejection would mean an exit from power, it appears not:

The BBC's Bhagirath Yogi in Kathmandu says that Nepal's future stability - as well as any new constitution - may well depend on the Maoists joining a national government, which is why intense negotiations are likely to take place in the next few days over the allocation of ministerial portfolios.

Link to a short BBC report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25135595 and a longer one:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25087224

After a ten year civil war, ending in 2006 and the Maoists winning power via the ballot box, will they change course?