Tactical Jenga vs. The Strategic Stopwatch

[Gian P Gentile]

Ken jumped in and caught me laughing then whipped me back into professional shape. I need this every now and then as many out there probably know. I have been lost ever since I gave up command and no longer have the benefit of a CSM as battle-buddy and keeping his colonel straight.

But back to the thread; I wonder if Dave D might comment on whether or not Dr Kilkullen ever mentioned or was it discussed at this conference the deteriorating situation of the American Army to the point, if not already there, of breaking? We tend to treat the American Army (and marines?) in all of these analyses in a clinical manner; like they both are unaffected masses that will just keep happily rolling on with no effect at all on them.

(thanks ken, but wilf you did have me rolling)

[Ken White]

he sometimes pushes the envelope. I guess we all do on occasion. I just tend to encourage avoiding personalizing the argument and being too dismissive of the opinion of others. We all, me included, err on that occasionally. Not a good medium for that IMO.

I am not sharing my poncho liner -- you guys keep trying to hog the covers...

On a more serious note, Dave will have to speak to Dr. Kilcullen, of course. However I'd suggest the Army and Marines are far from unaffected but are also far from broken. I may be wrong but my sensing is that there'll be a slow drawdown for a couple or three years and then the residual force, maybe three BCTs (+), will be there for a long time. As in real long...

Thus I rather tranquilly await Iraqi restaurants on the streets of Barstow, the Springs, El Paso, Hinesville and Killeen (to go with the Afghan models in Clarksville, Jacksonville, Fayetteville and Watertown)...

[Cavguy]

However I'd suggest the Army and Marines are far from unaffected but are also far from broken. I may be wrong but my sensing is that there'll be a slow drawdown for a couple or three years and then the residual force, maybe three BCTs (+), will be there for a long time. As in real long...

Been doing a lot of thinking about this recently - and have to agree.

"Platoon" was on the other night, followed by "Full Metal Jacket". I wasn't around then to comment on the accuracy of those units relative to the rest of the Army/Corps, but watching "Platoon" especially made me realize that I had never seen an Army unit anywhere near the state of Charlie Sheen's unit, or the general lack of discipline and standards, or the fighting spirit of the men.

I was watching Ralph Peters the other night on a PBS news show, he made one comment that struck me - "The army is not broken. I just got back from Fort Bragg and morale was not high, but not bad either, not as I would expect it six years in ... I don't even understand it myself." I don't always agree with Mr. Peters, but his comment rang true. The force is tired, even bitter, but hasn't lost the will to fight or its cohesion/discipline. As I read about the post/late -Nam army - drugs, insurbordination, indisipline - I haven't seen any of that emerge (beyond what is normal)- yet.

I think the indicator to watch for, and the one most dangerous for the army, is the collapse of discipline. Numbers can be rebuilt, but from my observations the "soul" of the force is the key. It still seems healthy right now, even given the stress.

That's not to get cocky either, it could happen suddenly, in a tipping point fashion, rather than a long decline. Anyone with experience have advice on the indicators to watch?