...An explosion on 4 October took place near the Army House in Rawalpindi and was followed on 5 October by the discovery of three rockets near the parliament building in the capital Islamabad.
Previous bombings and security incidents in these cities have been related to opposition to President Gen Pervez Musharraf within the military and intelligence agencies and from Islamic extremist groups. Although there has been speculation that Baluchi militants were involved in the latest incidents, Baluchi rebels have not tended to operate outside of Baluchistan. Meanwhile, the incidents do not fit with Islamic extremists' usual modus operandi. Several additional factors support the assessment that these incidents may be linked to elements within the military and intelligence services who wish to send a warning to Musharraf to express their increasing disillusionment:
* Islamabad and Rawalpindi have strong security measures in place, making militant infiltration difficult.
* The two incidents were well planned, showing tactical sophistication and apparent knowledge of Musharraf's movements.
* They coincided with Musharraf's highly controversial efforts to sideline and replace a corps commander.
Opposition to Musharraf
Musharraf has recently returned from a trip to the US, during which he launched his controversial autography and made highly critical comments about elements within the military. In addition, the president on 5 October appointed new 10 Corps Commander Lt-Gen Salahuddin Satti as Chief of General Staff (CGS) at the General Headquarters (GHQ). These developments have increased speculation that Musharraf's political and military support base might be becoming increasingly disillusioned with the personalised nature of his rule.
There have been three assassination attempts against Musharraf and one against his close associate Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz. In December 2003, two assassination attempts were carried out against the president in quick succession in Rawalpindi. They were initially linked to Islamic extremists, but subsequent investigations revealed links to elements within the military and intelligence services.
Rawalpindi and Islamabad incidents
The explosion in Rawalpindi's Ayub Public Park (1.3 miles (2km) from Musharraf's residence) appears to have been caused by a rocket. The following day, bomb-disposal experts defused three rockets that were found less than half a mile (1km) from the national assembly and were
aimed towards the building. The rockets were attached to mobile (cell) phones to enable remote launching, and were positioned in woods near to the diplomatic enclave, providing an opportunity to target several buildings in the area. This area has high security measures in place because of the presence of the national assembly, several government ministries, the prime minister's office and the president's office. Musharraf was addressing a press conference in the area at the time of the discovery.
Nobody has claimed responsibility for the incidents, which are likely to be linked. The authorities have provided little information apart from these basic facts...
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