The Taliban collection (2006 onwards)

[AdamG]

Letting us know they're still in the game.

As the world geared up to remember the Sept. 11 terror attacks, a powerful Taliban truck bomb exploded at a U.S. military base in Afghanistan late Saturday, wounding 77 American soldiers and killing five Afghan civilians, including a three-year-old girl.

The attack came shortly after the Taliban issued a statement vowing to send American forces "to the dustbin of history."

In the statement, the Taliban also promised to keep fighting U.S. forces until all American troops leave Afghanistan, but they denied any involvement in the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories...n-base-110910/

[davidbfpo]

A broad review of the situation in Afghanistan by the BBC, Why Taliban are so strong in Afghanistan, with a focus on the Taliban, prompted by the "leaked" NATO / ISAF report, which is on this link:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=15080

I read this assessment:

The harsh reality is that an increasing number of Afghans are turning to the Taliban, having grown mistrustful of Nato and Afghan forces.

By contrast Circling The Lion's Den cites a July 2010 opinion poll:

The issue of whether or not the Taliban is growing in popularity is open to question. A report published by the Asia Foundation in November, Afghanistan in 2011: A survey of the Afghan People, found that support for the Taliban among Afghans has steadily declined in recent years. It found that 82 per cent of those surveyed back reconciliation and reintegration efforts with insurgent groups. The number of people who said they sympathized with the aims of the Taliban had dropped to 29 per cent compared to 40 per cent in 2010 and 56 per cent in 2009.

However, a lack of security was identified as the biggest problem in the country by 38 per cent of those polled, followed by unemployment and corruption. Seventy-one per cent of respondents said they feared travelling from one part of the country to another. Most of these problems can easily be placed at the door of the Karzai government and the Taliban can play upon its promises to restore order in the country. The survey was conducted among 6,348 adults in July 2010 in all of Afghanistan's 34 provinces, excluding some dangerous areas.

Link:http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....t-be-true.html

[tequila]

I think one of the things the last ten years has re-taught us is that popularity is largely irrelevant in the wider case (especially of the sort done by polling firms in war zones), though certainly it can sway individuals - what is more important is control, either through military coercion or overriding popular legitimacy.

In the Afghan case, the Taliban was never popular in the Hazarajat, but it also faced no military challenge there once it had defeated the "United Front" in 2001.

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to Circling the Lion's Den for this report, note the source is the Taliban's website and maybe not a place to visit:http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....r-died-in.html

An alternative website is:http://jihadology.net/2012/02/13/new...-allah-akhond/

Opening paragraph:

The Taliban yesterday confirmed that its former defence minister....Shaheed Mullah Obaidullah Akhond ... during the Islamic Emirate had died nearly two years ago in a Pakistani prison. Their website says that he was detained on 3 January 2007 by the Pakistani government in Balochistan, but that little was heard from him after that. Only in the last few days did his family receive news from Pakistan that he died in prison in Karachi due to "heart complications" on 5 March 2010.

Closing paragraph:

Was he seen by the Pakistanis as one of the old guard around Mullah Omar, whose outlook did not suit Pakistani interests any longer? Although he was one of those who began to reorganise the Taliban once it had fled into exile in Pakistan, it is possible that he favoured negotiations to end the conflict. He was close to Mullah Barodar, who was also arrested by the Pakistanis, some say because Barodar was also in favour of negotiations with the Karzai regime. If his death was natural why was it covered up by the Pakistanis for so long? Any more information would be appreciated.

This is all very odd IMO. Whose jail? I understand ISI has it's own custody facilities. Why no leaked news? The questions are plenty. Answers few.

Makes one wonder if recent negotiations, which included his release along with others, led to the family being notified. Hardly likely to endear ISI to the Taliban or was he just a casualty of war?

[Dayuhan]

I think one of the things the last ten years has re-taught us is that popularity is largely irrelevant in the wider case (especially of the sort done by polling firms in war zones), though certainly it can sway individuals - what is more important is control, either through military coercion or overriding popular legitimacy.

I'd think a simple calculation of who's most likely to win would trump either popularity or attempts at control. Nobody wants to be one of those who supported the losing side when the dust settles, for good reason... so people will stay on the fence, try to avoid antagonizing any armed force in their neighborhood, and lean toward whoever they think will win. Survival is a powerful motivator.

[davidbfpo]

An odd newspaper story citing an unnamed veteran Taliban fighter, except the interviewer was Michael Semple, an accomplished ex-UN diplomat in Afghanistan until expelled by Karzai:

Any Taliban leader expecting to be able to capture Kabul is making a grave mistake. Nevertheless, the leadership also knows that it cannot afford to acknowledge this weakness. To do so would undermine the morale of Taliban personnel. The leadership knows the truth – that they cannot prevail over the power they confront...It would take some kind of divine intervention for the Taliban to win this war...At least 70 per cent of the Taliban are angry at al-Qaeda. Our people consider al-Qaeda to be a plague that was sent down to us by the heavens...To tell the truth, I was relieved at the death of Osama [bin Laden]. Through his policies, he destroyed Afghanistan. If he really believed in jihad he should have gone to Saudi Arabia and done jihad there, rather than wrecking our country.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ghanistan.html

There is a bit more on the original publisher's website:http://www.newstatesman.com/politics...member-taliban

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to Circling The Lion's Den for the pointers to two studies, the first on ' Haqqani Network Financing: The Evolution of an Industry' for CTC @ West Point by Gretchen Peters:

Her groundbreaking study shows in some detail how this remarkable Afghan clan has been able to build up unique cash-generating business enterprises to finance its very effective campaign against the Karzai government and its Western allies. From its base in Pakistan's North Waziristan - where it exists with the blessing of the ISI - the Haqqanis have created a mafia-like empire that now stretches across Pakistan and into the Gulf.

Link to report:http://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/u...ort__Final.pdf

Secondly, from a rather unusual angle IMO:

The European Asylum Support Office has published a report on Afghanistan aimed at providing information to support government officials who assess asylum applications from Afghan nationals....gives an overview of Taliban strategy for the recruitment of fighters......Many interesting little nuggets in this report which also contains a very detailed bibliography.

Link to report:http://www.statewatch.org/news/2012/...ecruitment.pdf

Link to Circling The Lion's Den:http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot.co.uk/

[davidbfpo]

As yet unread RUSI Report:

With the Western military draw-down in Afghanistan drawing closer, attention now turns to the shape of the post-2014 political settlement. Some form of accommodation with the Taliban will be required for a stable and secure Afghanistan....presents the findings of discussions with senior Taliban figures, suggesting that the Taliban and the international community may in fact have reconcilable positions.

This paper works to draw out the Taliban's views on three key issues:

International terrorism and the Taliban’s links with Al-Qa’ida and other armed non-state actors
The potential for a ceasefire
Parameters for conflict resolution and continuing presence of US military bases.

There is a short podcast too:http://www.rusi.org/publications/oth...504A22C99538B/