First, I know I'm not supposed to think the enemy is stupid, but in this case they do seem a bit scitzo...

Anyhow, we can parse it out a little....

Political Wing - used to have one, do they still... yes but underdeveloped and largely underground

External support - yes at least in the form of sanctuary in the FATA, but not a nation-state and it doesn't confer legitimacy accept perhaps amongst Pashtuns... so yes but limited

Focus of attacks on AFG and Coalition forces and infrastructure - IO directed at populace

My SWAG is Phase II protracted, with a goal of transitioning to a subversive strategy but not able to position candidates to win / assume seats of government.

I shall return to building pretty slides boss