The Taliban collection (2006 onwards)

[SWJ Blog]

Taliban Are Rising Again in Afghanistan’s North

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[davidbfpo]

Wayback in 2012 Posts 15 & 16 refer to a book edited by Alex Strick van Linschoten and Felix Kuehn, 'My Life with the Taliban'.

Today they won the Michael Howard prize, awarded by Kings College London:

Alex Strick Van Linschoten and Felix Kuehn have been awarded the Sir Michael Howard Excellence Award, for their book, An Enemy We Created: The Myth of the Taliban/Al Qaeda Merger in Afghanistan, 1970-2010 (Hurst and Oxford University Press, 2012). Alex and Felix are both PhD students in the Department based in Kandahar City in Southern Afghanistan, where they are undertaking research on their respective PhD theses. Alex and Felix are at the forefront of developing our understanding of the Taliban movement. They translated and edited Mullah Zaeff’s memoir, published as Abdul Salam Zaeff, My Life in the Taliban (Hurst and Oxford University Press, 2010), and currently are developing an archive of Taliban documents which will be placed online for researchers the world over to use.

Link to archive project:http://www.anenemywecreated.com/An_E...d/Welcome.html

Link to Kings announcement:http://www.kcl.ac.uk/sspp/department.../smhaward.aspx

[blueblood]

A statement this week from Sartaj Aziz, Pakistan's national security advisor to the BBC saying : "Why should America's enemies unnecessarily become our enemies?" may have further added to this mistrust.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-30105416

I find it incredibly surprising that post Abottabad, Americans still end up getting played by Pakistani army and ISI.

[davidbfpo]

Thirty one smaller threads referring to the Taliban have been merged into this thread today. Those left alone appear to deserve to be 'stand alone'.

[davidbfpo]

The author of this article in The International Journal Stability of Security and Development is Michael Semple, once the EU's Irish expert on Afghanistan and the Taliban, now an academic @ Queens, Belfast:http://www.stabilityjournal.org/article/view/sta.eh/246

Abstract:

Reacting to corruption and oppression in the Kandahar of 1994, the Taliban is seen as working with Sunni clerics to foster a shariat movement for advancing economic justice and (corporal) punishment. Before long, the organization began substantially rewarding joiners, arming for jihad, and resisting international forces in Afghanistan. Now, with less foreign resources to fight the Taliban, the Kabul central government has unfinished business with its still-robust challengers. In the face of recent modernization in sectors such as education and media, the author details three plausible scenarios for the Taliban to maintain its core shariat mission. One scenario is for the Taliban to re-secure (through continued force) its initial goal, viz., overall state power to promote and enforce shariat across urban as well as rural areas. Another possibility projects Afghanistan as operating a dualist system of separate zones, one for the Taliban’s ‘liberated territory,’ the other for the rest of Afghanistan as governed by Kabul. Achieving scenario three would be formidable: it posits that Taliban leaders may be persuaded that their armed jihad has run its course and can profitably be disconnected from the Middle East’s broader Islamic conflict. Conceivably, then, through accommodations with a shariat-accepting Kabul government, Taliban might be able to win buy-in for peace from its own military and its own fighting priests with their strong ties to Afghan communities in Pakistan.

I expect many here will wish that by 2024 Afghanistan will be a distant memory and a land of "milk & honey".

[AdamG]

This is *not* from THE ONION NEWS NETWORK

Mashaal Radio has published a report stating that Daesh and Taliban group have announced Jihad against each other.

Nabi Jan Mullahkhil, police chief of southern Helmand province has told Mashaal Radio during an interview that he has received documents in which both the terrorist groups have announced Jihad against each other.

Mashaal Radio which is related to Azadi Radio quotes Mullahkhil as saying when the matter of peace talks between government and Taliban comes into discussion some intelligence agencies make new groups to keep the war ongoing in Afghanistan.

http://www.khaama.com/isis-taliban-a...ach-other-3206

[davidbfpo]

AdamG,

Given the character of Afghan society that is byzantine in its intrigues and relationships an accusation of ISIS activity can hardly come as a surprise. Cast your memory back to the period between the post-Soviet exit to the victory of the Taliban (backed by Pakistan) Afghanistan was wracked by a bloody civil war.

Whether a ANP chief in Helmand Province is the most reliable source is a moot point. If you were engaged in an insurgency and under pressure from the Taliban, what better way to try and entice old allies to give you support?

[blueblood]

Not surprising. ISIS has been poaching Taliban and TTP commanders for quite some time. Recently 5 TTP commanders pledged allegiance to ISIS including the spokesperson Shahidullah Shahid. It was rumoured that 4 of them came back to TTP.

[omarali50]

If there really is such a thing as ISIS in Afghanistan (i.e. if it is not just a deniable front for the Haqqanis or their masters) and it gets into a turf fight with the Haqqanis and the Taliban then we will have an interesting experimental demonstration on our hands: a chance to see what counts for more? Ideological purity or state sponsorship? (I vote for state sponsorship, but if regional states fall into serious disrepair, then I vote for ideological purity).

[davidbfpo]

The Soufan Group's contribution:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...e-of-khorasan/

[davidbfpo]

Today there's a variety of commentaries after the Taliban finally announce their leader died sometime ago, two years maybe and in a presumably comfortable villa in a Pakistani city, Quetta and Karachi being mentioned.

A selection made by Shashank Joshi (RUSI):https://shashankjoshi.wordpress.com/...r-mullah-omar/

He includes IMHO the best expert, Michael Semple:http://www.politico.eu/article/the-m...stan-politics/

The Soufan Group:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...f-mullah-omar/

On Twitter Ali Soufan pointedly remarked so much for technical intelligence, Mullah Omar has been dead for two years and oh for a reliable human source.

This the thread on Afghan politics, which includes talking to the Taliban (by the Afghan state and IIRC ISAF):http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=21567

There is an older thread just on the Taliban:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=5299

Just what it means for Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Taliban is a moot point.

[davidbfpo]

Hardly a surprise that WaPo reports:

In early 2011, then-CIA Director Leon Panetta confronted the president of Pakistan with a disturbing piece of intelligence. The spy agency had learned that #Mohammad Omar, the Taliban leader who had become one of the world’s most wanted fugitives after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, was being treated at a hospital in southern Pakistan. The American spy chief even identified the facility — the Aga Khan University Hospital in Karachi....

Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...0ee_story.html

[davidbfpo]

It must be the week to say leaders are dead:

Chief of the Haqqani militant network and father of Sirajuddin Haqqani, Jaluluddin Haqqani, died almost a year ago of natural causes and was buried in Afghan province of Khost, according to reliable sources among the Afghan Taliban.While news of Jalaluddin Haqqani's death had been making rounds for almost a month now, multiple credible sources in Taliban confirmed today that he had died of illness almost a year ago.
The militant group has not officially given out a statement over Haqqani's demise yet.
Sources, however, say Sirajudin Haqqani, Jalaluddin's son, has been running the militant network for over a year now, ever since his father's illness.

Link:http://www.dawn.com/news/1197598/jal...aliban-sources

The Haqqani group was (is) noted as a very capable insurgent group and were loyal to Mullah Omar. Their name appears on many threads and there is an old (2011) RFI thread on them:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=10387

[omarali50]

so the multibillion dollar intelligence agencies of the West did not know this till yesterday? isnt that interesting?

[davidbfpo]

A column by an Indian SME and ex-RAW insider. The full title being:

Don’t Blame The ISI
It didn’t create the Taliban. The elected government of Pakistan did

Link:http://indianexpress.com/article/opi...blame-the-isi/

It starts:

Some commentators have described the late General Hamid Gul as the father of the Taliban. Gul was no doubt the most virulent anti-Indian face among all ISI chiefs.
But it is not true that he created the Taliban, which was the brainchild of General Naseerullah Babar, Benazir Bhutto’s interior minister during her second tenure as prime minister (1993-96). Benazir did not trust the ISI. She tried to cut it down to size by firing Gul during her first tenure (1988-1990) for the ISI’s failure to oversee mujahideen operations to capture Jalalabad after the 1989 Soviet withdrawal.

[davidbfpo]

[120mm]

I'm not sure if this will link correctly here, but both Abdur Rahman Khan and the Soviets understood geopolitical reality.

Abdur Rahman Khan resettled Pashtuns in key areas where they a) conducted genocide and ethnic cleansing against the Hazara and b) provided a presence in every district, which lines were redrawn to provide "divide and conquer" in geographically defensible areas.

The Soviets attacked the drainage basins to depopulate these areas and drive them into more easily managed cities.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/afgha...spock-articles

Headwaters in the Central Highlands

Rivers always have relevance, but that significance varies based on their geographic context. In countries like Colombia, for example, many rivers are navigable and serve as transportation avenues through or around physical barriers. In countries like Afghanistan they are the opposite; the rivers there are the physical barriers to movement. Their importance, however, is indisputable in regard to agriculture, which directly relates to Afghanistan’s (ethnic) population distribution, peoples’ livelihoods, resource use, and the country’s overall (in)stability.

That a significant number of major rivers have headwaters in the higher elevations of the country’s Central Highlands—in Bamyan, western Maidan Wardak, and western Ghazni Provinces—in proximity to each other often escapes attention. Control over this area, at least in theory, would allow control over Afghanistan’s lifeblood, if the group who controls it is powerful enough. Hence, this is an important issue when considered in the context of ethnic politics and regional stability.

More at the link.

[davidbfpo]

A CFR InfoGuide Presentation on The Taliban that starts with:

The Taliban has outlasted the world’s most potent military forces and its two main factions now challenge the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan. As U.S. troops draw down, the next phase of conflict will have consequences that extend far beyond the region.

Link:http://www.cfr.org/terrorist-organiz...n_ig-012116#!/

[omarali50]

Meanwhile across the border (and yes, they are exactly the same movement)

http://brownpundits.blogspot.com/201...acha-khan.html

[davidbfpo]

A lull maybe here, but the Taliban have 'not gone away' and there are some posts on their recent activity elsewhere.

This article via AP is to say the least not good news. It starts with:

A shadowy, Pakistan-based militant faction is on the rise within the Taliban after its leader was appointed deputy and played a key role in unifying the fractured insurgency. The ascendency of the Haqqani network, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, could significantly strengthen the Taliban and herald another summer of fierce fighting in Afghanistan. The firepower it brings to the Taliban was shown by a Kabul bombing last month that killed 64 people, the deadliest in the Afghan capital in years, which experts say was too sophisticated for the insurgents to have carried out without the Haqqanis.

Link:http://bigstory.ap.org/urn:publicid:...39695f77be3b55

Even more amazing is that the story relies upon a tape recording of a meeting where Sirajuddin Haqqani addresses a leadership meeting. Now would the Haqqani's associate ISI want that in the public domain?