Next Small War

[M. J. Dougherty]

Based on my research and pattern trend analysis, there is significant potential for the next small war to develop in SEA, a region of significant value to U.S. long-term and vital national interests. While not as quick to adapt, JI spent more than 10 years (prior to 9/11) quietly developing strategic and organizational depth. They also fostered the development of a loose and often overlooked alliance of Muslim insurgent groups known Rabatatul Mujahideen that stretches from Bangldesh to the Philippines and Austrailia. Many of the recent fighters captured in Thailand identified themselves as Rabitatul Mujahideen. This has resulted in a slowly rising level of violence that reduces basic human security and increases social angst. The operational objectives of JI are to maintain a level of instability based on ethnic, religious and social instability. One of the more interesting effects of JI attacks is the negative economic impacts they have had on the local and national economies. In one interview, Abu Bakr Bashir identified the Indonesian economy as a primary target of jihadist activities, which once undermined will create a chaotic environment and fracture social cohesion. Violence Futhermore, although a relatively neutral environment, JI wants to shape the strategic environment to a more favorable one by polarizing society into two groups Muslim Indo-Malay and non-Muslim/non Indo-Malays. Indonesia is the key objective of this campaign. While a peace settlement has been reached in Ache, I predict within a year, 18 months at the most, new wave of violence and insurgent activity will break out.

[GorTex6]

Chavez Turns to Iran on Military, Uranium

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is seeking to deepen ties with Iran, with discussions on holding joint military exercises and obtaining uranium, according to Bush administration officials.
Hamas also is talking to Caracas about sending representatives to Venezuela to raise money for the militant group's newly elected Palestinian government.
But relations with another ally, Russia, have soured over a deal in which Moscow is selling 100,000 AK-47s to Venezuela. The South American country was counting on receiving new rifles, but Russia has shipped a number of refurbished models, prompting Caracas to halt the deal, the U.S. sources said.
Mr. Chavez's continuing efforts to cozy up to Iran are of increasing concern inside the Pentagon and State Department.
Mr. Chavez yesterday threatened to expel the U.S. ambassador, after accusing the diplomat of provoking tensions, according to reporters in Caracas. The threat came two days after pro-Chavez demonstrators tossed eggs, fruit and vegetables at Ambassador William Brownfield's car and the State Department warned Venezuela that it faced consequences if it did not protect the U.S. envoy.

[Strickland]

In response to the 77th comment to this thread, reference comment #1 written October 14, 2005.

[GorTex6]

In response to the 77th comment to this thread, reference comment #1 written October 14, 2005.

Just keeping the topic alive (this assumption has been looming in my head since jan/feb 2005-see my views on China)

U.S. aircraft carriers head to Caribbean

ABOARD THE USS GEORGE WASHINGTON -- An aircraft carrier strike group moved into the Caribbean this week to begin two months of naval exercises in what the U.S. military hopes will be a show of its commitment to the region.

The deployment by the USS George Washington group will also focus on threats such as drug and human trafficking, according to the Miami-based U.S. Southern Command, which oversees military activities in Latin America.

Brig. Gen. Kenneth J. Glueck Jr., the Southern Command's chief of staff, called the tour an "opportunity for us to touch base with our partner countries."

He added: "There's no other symbol of American power like the carrier."

Members of the strike group, led by the nearly 1,100-foot long Nimitz-class carrier, made their first port stops Monday and Tuesday. The USS Stout, a destroyer, stopped in Curacao, while the USS Underwood, a frigate, docked in Cartagena, Colombia.

The military has dismissed allegations by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez that it is planning an invasion of his country. But analysts say the show of force sends a signal to Chavez and other Latin American leaders about U.S. strength.

[GorTex6]

Chavez Begins Training Civilian Militia

CARACAS, Venezuela -- President Hugo Chavez constantly warns Venezuelans a U.S. invasion is imminent.
Now he's begun training a civilian militia as well as the Venezuelan army to resist in the only way possible against a much better-equipped force: by taking to the hills and fighting a guerrilla war.
Supporters of the president, a former paratroop commander, are increasingly taking up his call. Chavez wants 1 million armed men and women in the army reserve, and 150,000 have already joined, surpassing the regular military's force of 100,000. Now Venezuelans are also organizing neighborhood-based militia units for Chavez's Territorial Guard.
Critics of Chavez say the real goal of the mobilization is to create the means to suppress internal dissent and defend Chavez's presidency at all costs. Thousands of Territorial Guard volunteers _ housewives, students, construction workers _ are undergoing training, earning $7.45 per session.

[GorTex6]

AP

CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuela's oil minister said Thursday that he backs the idea of selling oil in euros instead of U.S. dollars, a proposal also supported by fellow OPEC member Iran.

"Iran has an initiative that we support. They are going to start to do oil transactions in euros," Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said in an interview with state television.
Selling oil in euros would in theory boost world demand for the European currency at the expense of the dollar.
Analysts have said the proposal is highly unlikely to materialize but could in theory have serious consequences for the U.S. economy by undermining the value of the dollar and diminishing its status as the currency used in central-bank reserves.

Last nail in the coffin. Venezuela is next.......

(US currency floats because it is backed by US military power)

[GorTex6]

BBC

On Tuesday, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Russia planned to build two munitions plants in the country.
Moscow has already signed a deal to supply Venezuela with 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles.
The move is likely to worry the US, which regards Mr Chavez as a destabilising influence in the region.
In May, the US State Department banned arms sales to Venezuela because of concern over its contacts with Iran and Cuba and what it called Venezuela's lack of support for counter-terrorism efforts.

'Defend every street'

Mr Chavez made his announcement during a visit to Ecuador to sign a series of energy deals.
"The Russians are going to install a Kalashnikov rifle plant and a munitions factory," he said. "So we can defend every street, every hill, every corner."

.....