I think the chances for widening conflict are far greater in the Transcaucasian region and Southern Russia. Too many micronationalities in Daghestan and Georgia who can be agitated into taking up arms - Ossetians, Ingush, Kalmyks, Abkhazians, Mingrelians...

I would not rule out clashes within Ukraine though between nationalistic, Uniate, Western Ukrainians and Eastern, Orthodox, Russophile Ukranians being egged on by local nomenklatura-mafias