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Thread: Next Small War

  1. #81
    Join Date
    Oct 2005

    Default Venezuela Backs Plan to Sell Oil in Euros

    CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuela's oil minister said Thursday that he backs the idea of selling oil in euros instead of U.S. dollars, a proposal also supported by fellow OPEC member Iran.

    "Iran has an initiative that we support. They are going to start to do oil transactions in euros," Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said in an interview with state television.
    Selling oil in euros would in theory boost world demand for the European currency at the expense of the dollar.
    Analysts have said the proposal is highly unlikely to materialize but could in theory have serious consequences for the U.S. economy by undermining the value of the dollar and diminishing its status as the currency used in central-bank reserves.
    Last nail in the coffin. Venezuela is next.......

    (US currency floats because it is backed by US military power)
    Last edited by GorTex6; 06-03-2006 at 09:12 PM.

  2. #82
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    Oct 2005

    Default Russia in arms talks with Chavez

    On Tuesday, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Russia planned to build two munitions plants in the country.
    Moscow has already signed a deal to supply Venezuela with 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles.
    The move is likely to worry the US, which regards Mr Chavez as a destabilising influence in the region.
    In May, the US State Department banned arms sales to Venezuela because of concern over its contacts with Iran and Cuba and what it called Venezuela's lack of support for counter-terrorism efforts.

    'Defend every street'

    Mr Chavez made his announcement during a visit to Ecuador to sign a series of energy deals.
    "The Russians are going to install a Kalashnikov rifle plant and a munitions factory," he said. "So we can defend every street, every hill, every corner."

  3. #83
    Council Member sgmgrumpy's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Ft Leavenworth Kansas

    Angry UPDATE Venezuela's Chavez to sign Russia arms deal

    Quote Originally Posted by NDD
    Couple of observations from the TAOR:
    1. Chavez and Colombia - he wouldn't dare and there is no way to get a foothold. The Colombians will go the other way just because he is Venezuelan. Colombia has made tremendous progress in the last 4 years - unfortunately, the reporting of it is being lost in the bigger global picture. The ROI is paying huge dividends, but there is an election on the horizon and all that could change with one stuffing of the ballot box. The next step in Colombia is to either re-elect Uribe or elect someone just like him, there are several candidates. I never thought I would say it, but Colombia is on the fast track to becoming the most stable democracy in the region.
    2. Brazil will never fall into a Chavez or Ortega-led fold. Brazil isn't really a Latin country and they are looking for a seat at the Big Table, not regional coalitions.
    3. Personally, I see Mexico in the same boat as Brazil. What happens in the US has a far larger impact on Mexico than anything in Central or South America.
    4. South America does not follow Central America or the Carribean's lead. Case in point - Che's foco fiasco.

    Much more concerning to me is Chavez' new love for ME shady characters and Venezuela's membership in OPEC. If Chavez gets desperate enough, I doubt he will hesitate to swing even further that way for help. And we've all seen what happens when you let the AQ virus in.

    The tri-border area is also concerning, mostly due to a complete lack of any real state presence.

    If Ortega does re-gain control, I think he will be mostly a nuisance, much like Chavez. And like Chavez, the risk of him looking to the ME for support could become real.

    I would hope that even idiots like Ortega and Chavez could see what will happen to them if it comes to pass.

    Wednesday, July 26, 2006; Posted: 11:06 a.m. EDT (15:06 GMT)

    Start breaking out the Jungle Fatigues!

  4. #84
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005

    Default Thanks to the DEA

    The fact that Columbia is on our side now and has made incredible progress in the drug war is due largely to your friendly folks at the DEA. Who for security reasons will never get the credit they deserve for doing what was thought to be mission impossible.

  5. #85
    Small Wars Journal SWJED's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Largo, Florida

    Default Talking About Colombia...

    Tom Regan of the Christian Science Monitor did his round-up of the news today on Colombia - FARC Rebels Still Undermine Peace Effort. His online column regularly covers a topical issue and links to all the recent news and background / reference material. I find it useful - check it out.

    The killings last week of more than a dozen rural woodcutters in a rural region of Colombia mark the most recent move by the left-wing Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) "to exploit the power vacuum left by the demobilization of 32,000 right-wing militiamen."...

    But the Colombian military is not without its successes. Deutsche Presse-Agentur reports a military spokesman announced Monday evening the capture of a high-ranking rebel chief with the nom de guerre "King Kong." Carlos Ipia Dizu is the head of the 6th Company of the FARC and is best known for his kidnapping of three Germans in 2001. One of the men escaped and the other two were eventually released. BBC provides an overview of the conflict, including the US role in the region...

    US and Colombian officials have often accused Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez of aiding the FARC by not providing touger security along the border of the two countries. The Colombian army says the FARC has many bases just across the Venezuelan border which it uses as places of refugee when under heavy military attack...

  6. #86
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005

    Default Don't worry Miami Vice starts this friday

    Crockett and Tubbs are back on the beat this Friday so everything will be OK.

    On a more serious note I am afraid the success of the drug ops pushed them across the border. I suspect this happened because we finally were allowed to extradite drug dealers from Columbia instead of just collecting Intell on them. Don't think Hugo Chavez will let us do that. What a shame he should be the first one on the list.

  7. #87
    Council Member
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    Jul 2007

    Default Methinks It Could Be Bolivia....

    Here's a little background:

    Bolivia's autonomy referendums signal rightist backlash

    On Sunday, the Amazonian states of Beni and Pando voted overwhelmingly in favor of more autonomy from the socialist government of Evo Morales.
    Link to the article

    Now, this makes four of the five lowland provinces which have now all voted OVERWHELMINGLY for Autonomy: Pando, Beni, Santa Cruz, and now Tarija. The only (partially) lowlands province not yet voting for autonomy is CHUQUISACA, which is split.

    Here's A Provincial Map of Bolivia

    Most of Bolivia's oil (some, but primarily gas) production is all based in the lowlands, and that's where the real money is. Bolivia's socialist government of Bolivia's first indigenous president, Evo Morales has been making a concerted attempt to move most of the revenue obtained from the developing hydrocarbon based industries into his Socialist oriented projects, most of which are not in the lowlands areas where the hydrocarbons are being obtained. So this is more than just a right/left issue, it's actually more of who in Bolivia is going to benefit from the growing hydrocarbons revenues.

    Problem is, this is affecting all sorts of other players. You have good ole Hugo Chavez stirring up the pot on behalf of his good buddy Evo Morales, but the people he is causing pain for are in places like Argentina and Brazil who are neighbors to Bolivia, and who are the primary natural gas customers of Bolivia.

    Argentina on the South (directly adjacent to Tarjia province, who has the approx. 85% of the gas reserves, and Santa Cruz has virtually all the rest (10.6%+/-), which is also directly adjacent to Brazil).

    Here's another wikipedia link

    It's looking like the uplanders vrs. the lowlanders, with the Socialists being upland, and the opposition being down low.

    This is partially why both Brazil and Argentina both aren't quite so "open arms" with Hugh Chavez. Story goes that when Evo Morales nationalized the Natural Gas business in 2006, the Bolivian government arbitrarily broke a number of existing contracts for natural gas, and much of this occurred at the urging of Hugo Chavez. Don't make friends doing stuff like that, and the paybacks can be hell. Evo looks to be finding that reality out right about now.

    Anyway, this will be a fun one to watch, and in our own back yard.

  8. #88
    Council Member
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    Jul 2007

    Default This is going to get ugly....

    Bolivia on the Brink - Evo Morales leads his country toward disintegration or civil war

    Dated: Tuesday, September 16, 2008

    IT BECAME clear long ago that President Evo Morales's attempt to import Hugo Chávez's model of authoritarian socialism to Bolivia had polarized his country along ethnic and geographic lines -- risking its disintegration, or civil war. Rather than compromise, Mr. Morales only intensified his efforts to force through a new constitution concentrating power in his own hands and privileging highland indigenous communities at the expense of the rest of the country. The result is that Bolivia stands at the brink of a civil conflict that could destabilize an entire region.

    One of the five provinces that have rejected the president's policies is now occupied by the army under martial law after fighting that has killed as many as 30 people in the past few days. Militants on both sides are resorting to force. In the province of Santa Cruz, anti-government demonstrators have sacked and occupied government offices.
    Link to Washington Post Editorial

    The real problem is that there looks to be some things in common with Northern Ireland - both sides have a whole list of grievances going back, and back, and back. And nobody's letting go.

    This one has some real consequences, as it really could effect Peru, Chile, and especially both Argentina and Brazil. For example, both Argentina and Brazil would ideologically be more in alignment with President Evo Morales ideology, except for the fact that he's already made a point of sticking it to both Argentina and Brazil over energy, particularly arbitrary increases in natural gas prices. In fact, there's some thought out there that both Argentina and Brazil find it much easier to deal with the governors of the five lowlands provinces than the national government of Evo Morales.

    And, Hugo Chavez is of course sticking his big nose in - he's actually threaten to intervene militarily in Bolivia on the side of Evo Morales, except he's got no direct access. But I'm sure that mouthing off put him in good stead with all the neighbors.

    Going to get ugly.


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