Bolivia on the Brink - Evo Morales leads his country toward disintegration or civil war

Dated: Tuesday, September 16, 2008

IT BECAME clear long ago that President Evo Morales's attempt to import Hugo Chávez's model of authoritarian socialism to Bolivia had polarized his country along ethnic and geographic lines -- risking its disintegration, or civil war. Rather than compromise, Mr. Morales only intensified his efforts to force through a new constitution concentrating power in his own hands and privileging highland indigenous communities at the expense of the rest of the country. The result is that Bolivia stands at the brink of a civil conflict that could destabilize an entire region.

One of the five provinces that have rejected the president's policies is now occupied by the army under martial law after fighting that has killed as many as 30 people in the past few days. Militants on both sides are resorting to force. In the province of Santa Cruz, anti-government demonstrators have sacked and occupied government offices.
Link to Washington Post Editorial

The real problem is that there looks to be some things in common with Northern Ireland - both sides have a whole list of grievances going back, and back, and back. And nobody's letting go.

This one has some real consequences, as it really could effect Peru, Chile, and especially both Argentina and Brazil. For example, both Argentina and Brazil would ideologically be more in alignment with President Evo Morales ideology, except for the fact that he's already made a point of sticking it to both Argentina and Brazil over energy, particularly arbitrary increases in natural gas prices. In fact, there's some thought out there that both Argentina and Brazil find it much easier to deal with the governors of the five lowlands provinces than the national government of Evo Morales.

And, Hugo Chavez is of course sticking his big nose in - he's actually threaten to intervene militarily in Bolivia on the side of Evo Morales, except he's got no direct access. But I'm sure that mouthing off put him in good stead with all the neighbors.

Going to get ugly.