Next Small War

[M. J. Dougherty]

ALCON,
I am troubled by the what appears to be a complete lack of understanding among U.S. senior political and military leadership with respect to the strategic context of future war. There appears to be little appreciation that nonstate adversaries today are shaping the strategic environment for a conflict they anticipate decades in the future. U.S. leadership is fixated on the crisis de jur and lacks any meaningful plans for any threat other than China.
The coming conflict(s) in SE Asia are predicated on the most intractable of issues: ethnicity, religion, resource wars and perceptions of relative deprivation. Currently we see the states of SE Asia growing more unstable as internal conflicts, crime, corruption and growing disparity between the haves & have nots erode confidence in national and local level government. These instabilities can not be solved by short-tem "quick-fix" military deployments or military aid to corrupt and inefficient governments.
Anybody have comments?

[Martin]

Anybody have comments?

Yes, borne out of your post, but not related to it enough to hijack the thread.

On the other hand, I would really like to hear a more detailed take on SEA, if you ever have the time and desire to expand on your post.

Take care,
Martin

[Bill Moore]

While their are continued problems in SE Asia, I think it is a bit extreme to assume that it is the location of the next war. South America and Africa continue to be much closer to a hot war than SE Asia. Parts of SE Asia have suffered from poverty for years (Myanmar, Cambodia, Philippines, etc.), but the situation has not worsened. Thailand, Malysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and Vietnam (in the initial stages) have experienced economic miracles. Indonesia recently reached a peace setlement in Aech, and they had several recent successes against the JI. Thailand is having some political arrest currently with the situation concerning the PM. That will probably be resolved before the year is over. They also have an insurgency in the south, but it is largely restricted to the south, and it isn't new (the intensity of the fight is new, but not the insurgency). The Philippines continues to suffer from gross corruption, a communist insurgency, large areas of lawlessness, and a Muslim separatist movement, but that has been been standard fare in SE Asia for years. I to would like to hear more on what impending threat you see.

[M. J. Dougherty]

Based on my research and pattern trend analysis, there is significant potential for the next small war to develop in SEA, a region of significant value to U.S. long-term and vital national interests. While not as quick to adapt, JI spent more than 10 years (prior to 9/11) quietly developing strategic and organizational depth. They also fostered the development of a loose and often overlooked alliance of Muslim insurgent groups known Rabatatul Mujahideen that stretches from Bangldesh to the Philippines and Austrailia. Many of the recent fighters captured in Thailand identified themselves as Rabitatul Mujahideen. This has resulted in a slowly rising level of violence that reduces basic human security and increases social angst. The operational objectives of JI are to maintain a level of instability based on ethnic, religious and social instability. One of the more interesting effects of JI attacks is the negative economic impacts they have had on the local and national economies. In one interview, Abu Bakr Bashir identified the Indonesian economy as a primary target of jihadist activities, which once undermined will create a chaotic environment and fracture social cohesion. Violence Futhermore, although a relatively neutral environment, JI wants to shape the strategic environment to a more favorable one by polarizing society into two groups Muslim Indo-Malay and non-Muslim/non Indo-Malays. Indonesia is the key objective of this campaign. While a peace settlement has been reached in Ache, I predict within a year, 18 months at the most, new wave of violence and insurgent activity will break out.

[GorTex6]

Chavez Turns to Iran on Military, Uranium

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is seeking to deepen ties with Iran, with discussions on holding joint military exercises and obtaining uranium, according to Bush administration officials.
Hamas also is talking to Caracas about sending representatives to Venezuela to raise money for the militant group's newly elected Palestinian government.
But relations with another ally, Russia, have soured over a deal in which Moscow is selling 100,000 AK-47s to Venezuela. The South American country was counting on receiving new rifles, but Russia has shipped a number of refurbished models, prompting Caracas to halt the deal, the U.S. sources said.
Mr. Chavez's continuing efforts to cozy up to Iran are of increasing concern inside the Pentagon and State Department.
Mr. Chavez yesterday threatened to expel the U.S. ambassador, after accusing the diplomat of provoking tensions, according to reporters in Caracas. The threat came two days after pro-Chavez demonstrators tossed eggs, fruit and vegetables at Ambassador William Brownfield's car and the State Department warned Venezuela that it faced consequences if it did not protect the U.S. envoy.

[Strickland]

In response to the 77th comment to this thread, reference comment #1 written October 14, 2005.

[GorTex6]

In response to the 77th comment to this thread, reference comment #1 written October 14, 2005.

Just keeping the topic alive (this assumption has been looming in my head since jan/feb 2005-see my views on China)

U.S. aircraft carriers head to Caribbean

ABOARD THE USS GEORGE WASHINGTON -- An aircraft carrier strike group moved into the Caribbean this week to begin two months of naval exercises in what the U.S. military hopes will be a show of its commitment to the region.

The deployment by the USS George Washington group will also focus on threats such as drug and human trafficking, according to the Miami-based U.S. Southern Command, which oversees military activities in Latin America.

Brig. Gen. Kenneth J. Glueck Jr., the Southern Command's chief of staff, called the tour an "opportunity for us to touch base with our partner countries."

He added: "There's no other symbol of American power like the carrier."

Members of the strike group, led by the nearly 1,100-foot long Nimitz-class carrier, made their first port stops Monday and Tuesday. The USS Stout, a destroyer, stopped in Curacao, while the USS Underwood, a frigate, docked in Cartagena, Colombia.

The military has dismissed allegations by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez that it is planning an invasion of his country. But analysts say the show of force sends a signal to Chavez and other Latin American leaders about U.S. strength.