Insurgent Video Targets Blackwater

[tequila]

How are any of those things attributable to AQ's IO campaign?

Bush's win in 2004 is also attributable, given this episode:

At the five o'clock meeting, once various reports on latest threats were delivered, John McLaughlin opened the issue with the consensus view: "Bin Laden certainly did a nice favor today for the President."

Around the table, there were nods....Jami Miscik talked about how bin Laden — being challenged by Zarqawi's rise — clearly understood how his primacy as al Qaeda's leader was supported by the continuation of his eye-to-eye struggle with Bush. "Certainly," she offered, "he would want Bush to keep doing what he's doing for a few more years."

[marct]

How are any of those things attributable to AQ's IO campaign?

Withdrawl of Spain from the MNF

Distributed propaganda leading to a call for global jihad appears to have been, at least in part, a major source of the Madrid bombings which caused the change in the Spanish government leading to a withdrawl of Spanish troops once the new government took power.

Decrease in UK troops in Iraq

The London bombings and other activity has been spurred on by irhabi IO ops to the point where the always volatile British public is now extremely concerned with the possibility of aggravating the international Muslim community even more. This, along with Blair's resignation, has led to an increase in overall security in schools which, in turn, is increasing general levels of frustration with the government. Troop decreases in Iraq came about as a result of the change in government and efforts by the current PM to ameliorate the image of the UK as Bush's "lapdog".

Increase in global price of oil

Basically, take a look at how their IO campaign has raised fears globally as well as their destabilization efforts in a number of countries.

Election of a Democrat congress (2006)

Ask GEN Pelosi .

None of these are the direct result of AQ IO campaigns, but the IO campaigns set the stage for their interpretation and, in the case of irhabi attacks in Spain and Britain, were instrumental in making them happen.

[tequila]

Distributed propaganda leading to a call for global jihad appears to have been, at least in part, a major source of the Madrid bombings which caused the change in the Spanish government leading to a withdrawl of Spanish troops once the new government took power.

That and the UK bombings only works if you accept Sageman's thesis of open-source jihad. It runs up on the shoals of certain facts about the bombers, for instance that many of them were hardcore jihadis from before 9/11 with dedicated al-Qaeda links - i.e. they were not principally inspired by IO efforts.

Troop decreases in Iraq came about as a result of the change in government and efforts by the current PM to ameliorate the image of the UK as Bush's "lapdog".

Ignoring the fact that troop decreases were on the agenda before and would have occurred if Blair had continued in office, and was a function more of the rabid unpopularity of the war in Iraq than of any terrorist attack. The change in government was again due to intra-Labour Party politics and Iraq, not any AQ propaganda effort or some sort of bizarre attempt to curry Islamist sympathies.

Basically, take a look at how their IO campaign has raised fears globally as well as their destabilization efforts in a number of countries.

This is so generalized an argument as to be useless. How has their IO campaign "raised fears" in a way that led to a sustained price rise in oil? In what way has their IO campaign destabilized a major oil producing country? How much "risk premium" is built in specifically due to AQ's IO campaign, and how much has this affected world oil prices vs. things like a world-historical mass industrialization event such as has taken place in China over the past 15 years?

[marct]

That and the UK bombings only works if you accept Sageman's thesis of open-source jihad. It runs up on the shoals of certain facts about the bombers, for instance that many of them were hardcore jihadis from before 9/11 with dedicated al-Qaeda links - i.e. they were not principally inspired by IO efforts.

True, although he Edinburgh bombings don't appear, at least from what I have heard, to have had a pre-existing AQ link. Even granting pre-existing links, how were they mobilized? What is the rhetoric/IO used to activate them?

Ignoring the fact that troop decreases were on the agenda before and would have occurred if Blair had continued in office, and was a function more of the rabid unpopularity of the war in Iraq than of any terrorist attack. The change in government was again due to intra-Labour Party politics and Iraq, not any AQ propaganda effort or some sort of bizarre attempt to curry Islamist sympathies.

Hmmm, you might want to check out some of the Labour party Lords on that one. Still and all, the IO is helping to condition the general populace.

This is so generalized an argument as to be useless. How has their IO campaign "raised fears" in a way that led to a sustained price rise in oil? In what way has their IO campaign destabilized a major oil producing country? How much "risk premium" is built in specifically due to AQ's IO campaign, and how much has this affected world oil prices vs. things like a world-historical mass industrialization event such as has taken place in China over the past 15 years?

Mainly because I just don't have time right now to draw out all the linkages (it's tax time here and I have a bunch of contracts that have to be finished ASAP). You asked about a risk premium built in specifically due to AQ IO activities, and my guess would be none that is s specified. What their IO campaign is doing, however, is claiming credit for causing the US (and the West in general) to expend vast sums of money that is notbeing put back into the western economies.

Furthermore, by reducing the international perception of US efficacy, it has encouraged anti-US and anti-globalization movements, including Chavez, and exacerbated tensions in a number of other producing areas (e.g. Nigeria). Direct effect? Very little, but as one component of the overall political "atmosphere" it's been fairly large.

Anyway, back to my taxes

[tequila]

Let's just say that I disagree with almost 100% of your assumptions, most especially the idea that the British public is being "conditioned" by AQ IO or that AQ IO somehow "emboldens" anti-globalization forces, Hugo Chavez, or conflict in the Niger Delta, which is not a Muslim area. AQ claiming credit for higher oil prices does not mean they are correct at all, and tying AQ's IO campaign in with the 2006 Congressional elections strikes me as frankly comical.

[Ken White]

...tying AQ's IO campaign in with the 2006 Congressional elections strikes me as frankly comical.

tying Bush's 2004 win to that IO campaign.

I suspect the truth is that they've had some effects along the line Marc mentioned and 'emboldens' is perhaps a question of degree or might be replaced by 'mildly encouraged.'