There is one factor that will always be predictable,

Unpredictability

The key seems to be to Hope for the best, expect and plan for the worst and in the end generally things come out somewhere in between

That said as long as there is an accepted end state your aiming for it should be much easier to keep from getting thrown to far off track along the way no matter how confused things get.

North is always north the trick would be making sure we know which way north is from the start