Quote Originally Posted by Rank amateur View Post
Macgregor says. "if there is no legitimate government to begin with, your intervention is doomed to inevitable failure."

To me this is the key point. We're using tactics designed for use against a single anti government insurgency, but we're fighting multiple factions, many of whom are part of the government.
Rank,
I may be wrong but I think that statement is probably more specifically in regard to the necessity for planning to govern until good governance is established than don't go cause it's broke. And in that context I would think most everyone would agree with him.

Quote Originally Posted by Entropy View Post
Furthermore, we must consider the scale of conflict. We need a COIN capability obviously, but how much do we need? Enough for another large Iraq-style operation or something smaller? Those kind of questions are what underpin the capability requirements in QDR's which determines where the money goes, etc. Personally, I see "small wars" being more the norm in the future, but I think it will be a generation or more before we do something like Iraq again which is a "small war" in name only.
The one question that comes to mind in this regard is
If current ops are viewed in a world context has the precedent been set now that we may be required through no intentions of our own to attend to other areas in a similar fashion whether we like it or not.

Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
We will never be able to account for all contingencies; no democratic nation will -- and that's okay. What we have to do is be prepared, as best we can, for the likely contingencies. I submit our current capability to do that has been lessened but it's a long way from being in the tank. The doctrinal culminating point and many prophets of doom fail to account for the human dimension, the young guys can adapt. The issue is; will the old guys adapt?
As usual I think your dead on but I do have a question for all regarding training/preparation now vs then.

(WARNING: Big time run on sentence coming)
In the last two years I have seen what seems like immense changes in how and what we train. I'm quite certain they would be reflected in how we train what we train as well and as such is there a possibility that much of the training which would traditionally be expected to require X amount of time may actually take less time and or personnel to accomplish?