Small War in Mexico: 2002-2015 (closed)

[AdamG]

At least 13 people were killed Saturday, some of them beheaded, around the popular beach resort of Acapulco, just as foreign visitors have begun arriving for spring break.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-a...,5589087.story

CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico (Reuters) – Gunmen in the drug war-plagued Mexican city of Ciudad Juarez killed two Americans and a Mexican linked to the local U.S. consulate, an attack U.S. President Barack Obama said "outraged" him.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100314/...mexico_murders

[AdamG]

Dozens of gunmen mounted rare and apparently co-ordinated attacks targeting two army garrisons in northern Mexico, sparking off gunfights that killed 18 attackers.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...escalates.html

Juarez, Mexico (AHN) - Mexican Army soldiers started returning to their barracks Thursday in the border town of Ciudad Juarez as they turned most of their duties of fighting drug gangs over to the federal police. Instead, the Army will be assigned to monitor access to the city, international crossings and airports.

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/artic...#ixzz0jtV1mE1i

Mexico military faces political risks over drug war
As the death toll keeps climbing in Calderon's crackdown on the drug trade, there is a growing feeling that the army has been less than effective as a police force.
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/mar...my23-2010mar23

[AdamG]

Mexico drug gangs turn weapons on army

In northern states this week, gunmen fought troops and sought to confine some to their bases by cutting off access and blocking roads. The aggression shows they are not afraid to challenge the army.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...,5886596.story

At what point does a fight officially transition from "bandit gang" to "rebel army"?

[jmm99]

from AdamG
At what point does a fight officially transition from "bandit gang" to "rebel army"?

when the incumbant government officially pronounces that it is involved in an internal armed conflict subject to Common Article 3 of the 1949 GCs, etc. - e.g., by enacting an "AUMF".

Before that, the incumbant government is likely to have begun a transition by changing the rules of engagement (less law enforcement oriented, more wartime oriented) and its legal rules (state of emergency, etc.).

Of course, the public relations people may still talk in terms of "bandits" - e.g., the ChiComs as they mopped up some one million ChiNat troops in 1949-1950. And, transition from a law enforcement to wartime approach can take time - e.g., US Civil War from 1861-1863 (adoption of Lieber Code).

Regards

Mike

[AdamG]

Thanks, Mike.

Back on the border, the Sam Peckinpah-fest continues.

EL PASO – Texas law enforcement officials are bracing for a bloody weekend along the border, advising farmers to arm themselves as signs across northern Mexico point to a new escalation of violence after coordinated drug cartel attacks against the military this week.

*
Worries about IEDs

In Tamaulipas and Nuevo León, across the border from South Texas, the Gulf cartel is battling its former enforcers, the paramilitary group known as the Zetas.

In an alarming new development, the criminal groups are experimenting with improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, said Alex Posey, a Mexico security analyst with Austin-based Stratfor.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcont...s.1b8b36a.html

[AdamG]

Mexican 'Assassin Teams' May Target U.S. Law Enforcement, DHS Warns

Law enforcement officers in west Texas are on guard following an alert issued by the Department of Homeland Security warning of retaliatory killings for a recent crackdown on the Barrio Azteca gang.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/04/06...est=latestnews

The Gulf-Zeta Split and the Praetorian Revolt

The recent split between two former allies in Mexico's criminal underworld has torn open a new chapter of violence in northern Mexico that has already tinged Monterrey and threatens to spread down the border line, Samuel Logan and John P Sullivan write for ISN Security Watch.

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-A...g=en&id=114551

[AdamG]

Sinaloa cartel wins Juarez turf war

CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico – After a two-year battle that has killed more than 5,000 people, Mexico's most powerful kingpin now controls the coveted trafficking routes through Ciudad Juarez. That conclusion by U.S. intelligence adds to evidence that Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman's Sinaloa cartel is winning Mexico's drug war.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100409/...hjbHVzaXZlcw--

U.S. lawmakers: Rush supplies to Mexico

WASHINGTON — Following a meeting with President Felípe Calderón, U.S. lawmakers from Texas and Arizona said Thursday they would seek to expedite a transfer of helicopters, airplanes and equipment to Mexico

Congress has approved the transfer under the $1.3 billion Merida Initiative designed to help the Mexican government combat narcotics cartels operating in that country.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/nation/6950760.html

[AdamG]

MEXICO CITY -- Mexico's drug cartels have changed tactics and are turning more attacks on authorities, rather than focusing their fire on rivals gangs, the country's top security official said Sunday. Interior Secretary Fernandez Gomez-Mont said at a news conference that two back-to-back, bloody ambushes of government convoys - both blamed on cartels - represent a new tactic.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...042501708.html

MORELIA, Mexico (AFP) - – Gunmen ambushed the motorcade of the top state security official in the Mexican state of Michoacan early Saturday in the latest round of drug-related violence that left 13 people dead around the country.
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/2010042...e-4bdc673.html

[AdamG]

NPR has been doing some interesting interviews of late -

Drug cartels have been linked to corruption, killings and a spike in drug-related violence in Mexico. In a four-month investigation, NPR found evidence that the Mexican army is colluding with one of Mexico's most powerful drug mafias. NPR correspondent John Burnett shares what he uncovered in Mexico.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...ryId=126977941

An NPR News investigation in Ciudad Juarez — ground zero of Calderon's cartel war — finds strong evidence that Mexico's drug fight is rigged, according to court testimony, current and former law enforcement officials, and an NPR analysis of cartel arrests.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...ryId=126890838

and
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...ryId=126894829

and
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...29&ft=1&f=1003

[tequila]

A good question would be: If the Mexican Army has decided to assist one cartel to "win" along the border, would that be a bad thing if it brought down violence?

[tequila]

Border 'Mayhem'? An Illegal Immigration Fact Check Shows Violence Declining

But while several violent high-profile incidents in the Tucson, Arizona, sector have gained national attention and colored political rhetoric, an ABC News analysis of immigration and crime data, combined with interviews with law enforcement officials, shows something very different -- that violence and crime on the U.S. side of the 2,000-mile border with Mexico are generally on the decline.

By numbers alone, the border region appears, as Department of Homeland Security Secretary and former Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano put it, is as "secure now as it has ever been."

More than 646 miles of the border are protected by fence, according to Customs and Border Protection.

More than 20,000 border patrol agents serve on the front lines -- an 80 percent increase over 2004 and the largest number in history.

The number of illegal immigrants apprehended along the border, which CBP uses to gauge the flow of migrants, is down nearly 55 percent from 2005. The agency captured 540,865 last year.

...

In many of the U.S. border communities themselves, local law enforcement officials report violent- and property-crime rates that have fallen over the past year, and, in several cases, are among the lowest in the country.

Cities like Tucson; Chula Vista, California; and Lardeo, Texas, have all seen year-over-year drops in violent crime, murder, and rape. El Paso, Texas, continues to have one of the lowest rates of violent crime of all U.S. cities, just behind Honolulu, according to the latest FBI Uniform Crime Report.

"I don't see the border in chaos at all," said Octavio Rodriguez, who studies drug-related violence along the Mexican border at the University of San Diego Trans-Border Institute. "The Tijuana-San Diego border area in particular is very secure."

[AdamG]

June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Mexican soldiers confronted an armed group today in the city of Taxco, killing as many as 15 people, the state attorney general said. * He said the soldiers were carrying out a search operation in the town, which is popular with tourists for its historic role in the silver trade.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a9QN9fXX5TlA

[AdamG]

MEXICO CITY – The drug-cartel enforcer told an unsettling story: A woman who worked in the Mexican border's biggest U.S. consulate had helped a rival gang obtain American visas. And for that, the enforcer said, he ordered her killed.

Nonsense, says a U.S. official, who said Friday the motive for the slaying remains unknown.

The employee, Lesley Enriquez, and two other people connected to the U.S. consulate in the city of Ciudad Juarez were killed March 13 in attacks that raised concerns that Americans were being caught up in drug-related border violence.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100703/...hpY2FubXVyZGU-


And this probably sounds like the gunfight crime scene in NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

HERMOSILLO, Mexico -- A massive gun battle between rival drug and migrant trafficking gangs near the U.S. border Thursday left 21 people dead and at least six others wounded, prosecutors said.

The fire fight occurred in a sparsely populated area about 12 miles (20 kilometers) from the Arizona border, near the city of Nogales, that is considered a prime corridor for immigrant and drug smuggling.

The Sonora state Attorney General's Office said in a statement that nine people were captured by police at the scene of the shootings, six of whom had been wounded in the confrontation. Eight vehicles and seven weapons were also seized.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...070107064.html

[slapout9]

And this probably sounds like the gunfight crime scene in NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

Great movie

[Misifus]

For you Sam Peckinpah and The Wild Bunch fans, you may recall the opening shootout (bank robbery) was in the fictional town of San Rafael, TX. The final shootout (where Angel gets his throat cut) was in the fictional ruins known as Mapache's Hideout. Both of these locations are in reality located in Mexico, in the state of Coahuila. San Rafael,TX actually being the town of Parras de La Fuente, and Mapache's Hideout actually being the ruins of the old hacienda La Cienega del Carmen which is just a short ride outside of Parras, if one knows the way. I frequent Mexico often on my motorcycle and was just at these locations last November. The old ruins are now being converted to a bed & breakfast.

Much of what is written about Mexico and the narco-wars is highly inaccurate. Intel in the US tends to be "think-tank" generated with little to no real knowledge of how things really work south of the border. Most of the links provided in this thread so far, while having some validity, much of what is written is simply done so in order to get the attention of an audience. The real intel picture, and hence conclusions to be derived thereof, remains elusive. However, I am willing to attempt to answer an questions that y'all may have based on my border journeys.

Let me start by posing a question to the audience here. When a links say that cartels are battling over a "corridor," what do you think that really means?

[davidbfpo]

Misifus,

Thanks for the update on Peckinpah geography.

As to your:

Let me start by posing a question to the audience here. When a links say that cartels are battling over a "corridor," what do you think that really means?

A "corridor" for me - from afar - is a relatively safe route for moving goods and persons and in the Mexican context, drugs and people towards the US border. Safe from Mexican law enforcement, perhaps not rivals; either because only a few give information or law enforcement, if willing, are out-gunned.

[bourbon]

The real intel picture, and hence conclusions to be derived thereof, remains elusive. However, I am willing to attempt to answer an questions that y'all may have based on my border journeys.

Is there a relationship between the recent violence and the end of PRI rule?
Does the government favor any particular Cartel?
What effect does the domestic drug market play?
What role do foreign groups play?

[Misifus]

A "corridor" for me - from afar - is a relatively safe route for moving goods and persons and in the Mexican context, drugs and people towards the US border. Safe from Mexican law enforcement, perhaps not rivals; either because only a few give information or law enforcement, if willing, are out-gunned.

Contrary to popular belief, as popularized by the press, there really is no "corridor" that is being battled over. It's not like they are fighting over highway, roads, trails, etc., and what one would normally consider some type of geographical route leading into the US. What they are fighting over is who runs the business. In other words, who gets to receive shipments from the suppliers and who gets to push them forward into the US. There is no "corridor" in the classic sense of the word to do battle over. Several cartels could use the same corridors if they wanted to. It's not a geographical issue in terms of narco vs. narco.

The battles tend to happen near the larger border cities simply because that's where the guys who work in the "prep for crossing" side of the business reside. Although one should note that battles are also occurring in the Pacific states of Mexico where the "receiving side" of the business resides, and also where the bosses tend to reside. Nevertheless, both coasts are points of ingress as well as the Guatemala border.

The US border is porous and the drugs can come in anywhere. However, what is not reported by the press is that most of the narcotics coming into the US are actually coming through the border by legitimate modes of transportation, i.e., commercial truck and rail. The common perception in the US is that it is smuggled in by individuals crossing the desert in some type of Ranger patrol fashion, or by an individual automobile loaded with contraband. While this does occur, these are for the most part lone operators and are minor in terms of the total smuggling picture. One must think of the transportation in terms of logistics and probabilities of detection - a risk management study. Legitimate transportation is how most of the stuff gets here. Detection technology is insufficient to stop this, and even if it was sufficient, the US government is not really interested in narcotics interdiction - it's too close to home.

[Misifus]

(1)Is there a relationship between the recent violence and the end of PRI rule?
(2)Does the government favor any particular Cartel?
(3)What effect does the domestic drug market play?
(4)What role do foreign groups play?

Here are my opinions.

(1) No. PRI dominance or lack thereof has for the most part no bearing. PRI, however, appears to be back on the rise.

(2) No. But everybody hates the Zetas. Very bad form for them to turn on the their former employers. The Mexican government will turn a blind eye to any attacks on the Zetas by any other cartels. The Zetas have pretty much been pushed out of Nuevo Laredo and are now being pushed out of Reynosa. They are being exterminated as they are pushed further east. Having set a very bad precedent, things may even calm down when they are finally eliminated.

(3) It has been growing. This is actually an aberration in Latin America. Drugs are considered something for Gringos, not for Latinos. The only exception has been marijuana, and even its use was not that common. There are actually signs that the domestic markets will dwindle if the status quo returns.

(4) Foreign groups play a minimal role, with the exception of suppliers, and their role now is as always, to supply.

[bourbon]

What is the domestic demand for methamphetamine?

What is the illicit market for small arms like? Prices, availability, types, price trends over the past few years, etc.

What caused the split between Los Zetas and the Gulf Cartel?

How effective has the Mexican Army been against the cartels? What has been the civilian response to Mexican Army deployment in the north?

What inhibits the government’s effort to capture Chapo Guzman? How would the death or capture of Chapo affect the Sinaloa Cartel, and the overall war between the cartels?