Small War in Mexico: 2002-2015 (closed)

[bourbon]

The Next Disaster: Narco violence is exploding--just as oil prices are plunging and Mexico is bracing for a deep U.S. recession. Forbes, December 22, 2008.

The article surveys continued troubles in Mexico, they include:

Economic
- Mexico's GDP will slow to 1.5% growth this year, down from 3.2% in 2007. Projections for 2009 are between zero and 0.7%.

- 80% of Mexican exports go the U.S. where consumers are not buying. Effects are particularly concentrated in border region with U.S. due to maquiladora sectors. In Juarez 223,000 people work in the maquiladora sector, 22,000 have lost jobs there, most since August. Each maquiladora job supports four jobs in the city.

- Remittances from Mexicans living in the U.S. will be down roughly 10% to $21.6 billion for 2008.

- State coffers will by hard due to problems in oil sector. Pemex's is hit by the fall in oil prices and continued fall in output, as production is down to 2.8 million barrels a day from a 2004 peak of 3.3 million barrels. Much of this production drop attributed to rapid decline of the supergiant Cantarell field.

Upside - For now the banking system is well capitalized, with "no hint yet of a credit crunch."

Narcotics
- Narcoviolence pervades all segments of life in Mexico. The body count in Juarez is 1,110 for 2008, 200+ in the month of August.

- Narcocorruption has penetrated the highest levels of government. Cartels have reportedly employed Mexico's principal link to Interpol and its former senior drug czar.

- The article notes that Atlanta and NW Georgia have become have become the key East Coast distribution hub for the Gulf Cartel and lesser players. The narcotic flow north and bulk-cash transfer flow south is protected from internal graft and meddling by other underworld players through escalating levels of terror and violence.

Upside - Cocaine prices are up 27% in the U.S. since early 2007, while purity is down 16%.

[Jedburgh]

Houston Chronicle, 15 Dec 08: Houston anti-kidnapping expert kidnapped in Mexico

An American renowned as an anti-kidnap expert has himself been abducted in northern Mexico after several days of seminars in which he was teaching police and citizens how to deal with kidnappings.

Felix Batista, 55, is a senior consultant with ASI Global, a Houston-based firm that assists clients with security issues, including both preventing and resolving kidnappings. He was taken Wednesday evening outside a restaurant in the industrial city of Saltillo in the state of Coahuila, which borders Texas....

[bourbon]

From the NYT's Annual Year in Ideas:

Imaginary Kidnappings, By BRENDAN I. KOERNER. The New York Times Magazine, December 12, 2008.

Kidnappings are a daily occurrence in Mexico. So when a resident of Monterrey or Puebla receives a phone call with news that his son or daughter has been snatched, he has every reason to believe the tale — especially if anguished screams are audible in the background. Terrified, the parent may readily obey the caller’s instructions to wire ransom money posthaste or leave a sack of jewelry in a nearby alley. Only later will the victim realize the truth: the abduction was a sham.

A Time magazine article on the Batista kidnapping:

In the same poll, 45% of Mexicans who have a phone line said they've been victims of telephone extortion, in which persons call a residence, claim they've abducted a family member and demand a ransom. Often the claims of abduction are false; but either way, because the fear of kidnapping is so high in Mexico, the callers usually get money.

This is not to imply Mr. Batista's kidnapping is imaginary, it is most certainly real. Just passing along a link.
My thoughts are with the Batista family.

[Jedburgh]

In the same poll, 45% of Mexicans who have a phone line said they've been victims of telephone extortion, in which persons call a residence, claim they've abducted a family member and demand a ransom. Often the claims of abduction are false; but either way, because the fear of kidnapping is so high in Mexico, the callers usually get money.

Telephone extortion of businesses in Mexico is common as well. Whether its an employee or management, the premise is the same. There have been a number of instances where the employee who is claimed to have been kidnapped are the ones who plan and profit (sometimes, and often only temporarily) from the extortion.

[Mark O'Neill]

The title of this thread is hilarious, it wins my vote for the amateur sub-editorial title post of 08,

It really appeals to my aussie sense of humour.

Mark

[Beelzebubalicious]

Hope he is released.

In terms of semantics, he is a kidnapping expert which means that if he is safely released, he will even be a better expert. Of course, his anti-kidnapping business may slip....

[Tom Odom]

if "you are doing a great job, Browny" can then sell himself as a disaster consultant, then this guy can do the same

FEMA chief relieved of Katrina duties


Faces In The News
Ex-FEMA Chief To Do Disaster Consulting

[Beelzebubalicious]

Well, his management of FEMA and the Katrina response was a disaster, so technically, he may be the world's greatest experts on disasters.

[Tom Odom]

Well, his management of FEMA and the Katrina response was a disaster, so technically, he may be the world's greatest experts on disasters.

There ya go!

[SWJED]

General Barry McCaffrey: Mexico Trip Report

General Barry McCaffrey (USA, Ret.) an Adjunct Professor at West Point, visited Mexico 5-7 December 2008 as part of an International Forum of Intelligence and Security Specialists.

In his report, General McCaffrey notes that drug-related violence in Mexico is as severe as terror-related violence in Afghanistan and calls on the new Administration to urgently focus on the growing security threat to the US southern border.

Latest Academic Mexico Trip Report - December 2008 (Full AAR)

[Gringo Malandro]

the drug cartels cannot defeat the government through direct violent confrontation.

If I had a nickel for every time I heard that one.

There are plenty of faults to be found with the Mexican government, but that bottom line is that these organizations are funded by OUR drug consumption. I hate to be a cynic but this just sounds like a deepening financial black hole to support a strategy that hasn't produced many gains. This at a time when our system of government is a damaged brand and there is a shrinking pot of gold to pull from.

Mexico has lots of poor people, many of whom rely on remittances for survival. So they aren't going to go along with any proposal to wall off the border, which would cut down on THAT shrinking pool of money.

At it's root this isn't just a law enforcement problem but a social problem as well. And until we take a serious interest in the development of Mexico we just pushing a stone up a hill. The only solution is further integration with Mexico and a long hard look at our drug policy, and neither of those will be extremely popular.

[Ken White]

We have not been very nice to either of our neighbors...

That's generally considered to be not very bright and to breed resentment that regardless of wealth and the size of your lot can lead to power outages, disrupted water lines and their dogs using your turf for a dumping ground.

We should do better.

[davidbfpo]

How much can an ex-general and now analyst / reporter learn about a large nation in a two day visit? Even allowing for reading and talking beforehand. Not much I'd say. How much time he spend talking to those on the ground, who IMHO will have a different outlook to anything printed or in electronic format.

davidbfpo

[Cavguy]

How much can an ex-general and now analyst / reporter learn about a large nation in a two day visit? Even allowing for reading and talking beforehand. Not much I'd say. How much time he spend talking to those on the ground, who IMHO will have a different outlook to anything printed or in electronic format.

davidbfpo

It helps it wasn't his first visit and he was the Drug Czar for many years, which meant he dealt with US-Mexico issues regularly.

[Ken White]

some familiarity with the problem but my suspicion is that a flying two day visit and speaking to folks on high -- you can rest assured he did not speak in depth with any peons (LTC and below in his eyes, I suspect) -- does not really give him the depth of current knowledge to be making policy prescriptions. Not that such fact would deter him...

[John T. Fishel]

I would still suggest to all that we don't underestimate his experience with Mexico or his insights. He was, after all, not only the Director ONDCP (Drug Czar) but also CINC USSOUTHCOM at a time when that command had some major responsibilities toward Mexico even though it was not technically in his AOR.

That said, I agree with Ken's assessment about who the General talked with.

Cheers

JohnT

[Majormarginal]

This will not go away. There is de facto legalization in most of urban America. In most of urban America you can sell drugs all day long. All strata of society use illegal drugs. It's time to re boot and think about legalization and regulation.

[Bill Moore]

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/p...nt/import.html

Top five countries we import crude oil from. The numbers below represent 1,000 barrels a day for the month of OCT 08.

CANADA 2,066
SAUDI ARABIA 1,435
MEXICO 1,256
VENEZUELA 1,027
NIGERIA 935
IRAQ 577

What I found interesting was that when you combine Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela we're getting roughly 4,300,000 barrels a day. From Saudi and Iraq combined we're getting roughly 2,000,000 barrels a day of our crude. I'm sure that is 2,000,000 barrels a day we can ill afford to lose, but the same holds true for the oil we're getting from the Americas. Our myoptic focus on the war on terror has allowed other threats to our national interests to emerge relatively unchallenged.

The criminal insurgency in Mexico has been discussed at length in the SWJ council. The threat is very real and very significant. If the proposed reforms that the Mexican Government is trying to implement is going to work, they're going to need a strong ally that they can lean on during this tough fight. If the Mexican people know, really know, that the U.S. is supporting their fight against narco-terrorism and corruption, then it is more likely that those in Mexico who want to see their country put on a track to stability and economic growth will be more likely to support their government. If they think their government is isolated, and that the narco-terrorists are winning, then there will be little incentive to fight. Enabling Mexico to win this war is at least on par in strategic importance to our nation as Iraq. This won't be an easy fight.

I think GEN (R) McCaffrey's call to action is on target, and hopefully it will get to the right audience. While not necessarily in the scope of this article/trip report, I was disappointed he only addressed the income that the Mexican Cartels are making from the U.S.. I assume that they also sell drugs to Europe, Asia, etc? I also didn't follow the plan for dividing the major cartel families into 50 smaller entities. Why 50? How do you accomplish this?

[Bob W.]

Major Marginal said:

"This will not go away. There is de facto legalization in most of urban America. In most of urban America you can sell drugs all day long. All strata of society use illegal drugs. It's time to re boot and think about legalization and regulation."

I agree that we need to re-think our drug policy. We spend billions of dollars on drug enforcement every year and little to show for it. I do not believe that law enforcement has ever changed the American public's drug use/consumption, or even mores. either.

Meanwhile, look at what the "drug war" is doing to democracies in Central and South America, it's absolutely tragic.

Would the world be worse if the US legalized (and taxed/regulated) narcotics like Heroin/cocaine, and of course, the no-brainer marijuana? I suspect not.

I hope more Americans start discussing our current drug policies, and the possibility of legalization, intelligently in the near future. . .

[ODB]

If we legalize it how do we contain it in the work place? No breathalizer to deem someone is under the influence. The worse part of our drug issues is becoming prescriptition medication. We all know the drug companies are loving this, they are making a fortunate at all of ours expense. Who gets the liscenses to grow, make, and sell? Hell if they legalized drugs how many corn fields would turn into pot fields for the profit?