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Thread: Abu Ayyub al-Masri Captured in Iraq

  1. #1
    Small Wars Journal SWJED's Avatar
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    Default Abu Ayyub al-Masri Captured in Iraq

    Abu Ayyub al-Masri Captured in Iraq at SWJ Blog - will try to keep the page updated...

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    Council Member Abu Buckwheat's Avatar
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    Good catch!

    AQI is going down slowly but definately going down ... now if only we can keep the Shia and Sunnah from killing each other!
    Putting Foot to Al Qaeda Ass Since 1993

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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveMetz View Post
    Sometimes it takes someone without deep experience to think creatively.

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    Council Member Abu Buckwheat's Avatar
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    In. Frick'n. Credible. This had beeter have been an IO to smoke him out. Sometimes I get ahead of myself and actually believe MNF-I.
    Putting Foot to Al Qaeda Ass Since 1993

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    Council Member Ron Humphrey's Avatar
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    Question I thought

    Quote Originally Posted by Abu Buckwheat View Post
    In. Frick'n. Credible. This had beeter have been an IO to smoke him out. Sometimes I get ahead of myself and actually believe MNF-I.
    MNF-I were the ones who said from moment one they could NOT confirm that it was true. Seems like that was a wise decision considering todays news.
    Last edited by Ron Humphrey; 05-09-2008 at 03:09 PM. Reason: add the NOT
    Any man can destroy that which is around him, The rare man is he who can find beauty even in the darkest hours

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    "Iraqi officials have reported his death three times, his capture twice and a mortal wounding once."

    Maybe Marc can explain. I bet it has something to do with his symbolic effect within the Shia community.
    Last edited by Rank amateur; 05-09-2008 at 02:54 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by SteveMetz View Post
    Sometimes it takes someone without deep experience to think creatively.

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    Council Member marct's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rank amateur View Post
    "Iraqi officials have reported his death three times, his capture twice and a mortal wounding once."

    Maybe Marc can explain. I bet it has something to do with his symbolic effect within the Shia community.
    More like wishful thinking I would guess .
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    Council Member Vic Bout's Avatar
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    Default It must be cultural math

    Two things I learned when dealing with both Afghani's and Iraqi's (mostly military types):
    1) Never believe the first report
    2) Combat math is skewed (i.e. "Well, Chief, we were on patrol in town last night and were ambushed by 25 ali-baba. We returned fire but they all escaped"....en realidad for my daily SITREP to higher we divide everything by 10 and come up two guys shooting at our IA patrol from a speeding vehicle
    "THIS is my boomstick!"

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    Council Member marct's Avatar
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    Hey Vic,

    I used to do the same thing, divide by 10, when I was listening to the combat stats on the VC coming out of Vietnam . Must be a human universal !
    Sic Bisquitus Disintegrat...
    Marc W.D. Tyrrell, Ph.D.
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    The Canadian Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies, NPSIA
    Carleton University
    http://marctyrrell.com/

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    Council Member Abu Buckwheat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vic Bout View Post
    Two things I learned when dealing with both Afghani's and Iraqi's (mostly military types):
    1) Never believe the first report
    2) Combat math is skewed (i.e. "Well, Chief, we were on patrol in town last night and were ambushed by 25 ali-baba. We returned fire but they all escaped"....en realidad for my daily SITREP to higher we divide everything by 10 and come up two guys shooting at our IA patrol from a speeding vehicle
    I should have known better. I actualy teach this in my tactical Arabic classes:

    01 (Wahid) = None or maybe even 1, if they feel especially honest
    02 (Ithnayn) = One, Maybe
    03 (Thalatha) = One, for sure
    10 (Ashura) = Two
    15 = Three
    100 = Ten
    1000 = 25
    Too much = 26

    It is Very Bad = SVBIED or any assessment of the enemy
    It is Very Much Bad = 3 or more Jihadis, or any unacceptable interruption of kabab, shisha or tea breaks
    It is Too Much Bad = Any Muj position they have to attack
    It is Too Very Much Bad = Kababs cannot be found, like, anywhere!

    So by this initial report I guess I can add "We have killed the #1 Al Qaeda" to mean = We REALLY don't want to have to find this guy ... he is already dead, see!?
    Putting Foot to Al Qaeda Ass Since 1993

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    Council Member RTK's Avatar
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    I was wondering what the issues would be between MNF-I and MOD since we basically said they were wrong. Anyone else think we should have allowed the Iraqis to correct themselves instead of doing it for them, kinda like when we should have allowed them to announce the capture of Saddam?
    Example is better than precept.

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    Council Member Ron Humphrey's Avatar
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    Post Your probably right

    Quote Originally Posted by RTK View Post
    I was wondering what the issues would be between MNF-I and MOD since we basically said they were wrong. Anyone else think we should have allowed the Iraqis to correct themselves instead of doing it for them, kinda like when we should have allowed them to announce the capture of Saddam?
    But looking at it from a coalition standpoint it may be somewhat difficult still to get some of those within the Iraqi leadership to willingly admit being wrong, and in that case better we point it out than AQI or others suddenly post a vid with him reading tomorrows paper all about how dead he is
    Any man can destroy that which is around him, The rare man is he who can find beauty even in the darkest hours

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