as we now operate but I suggest an AC HIC Corps for that rapid response and at least two ArNG / USAR HIC Corps are quite feasible IF we change the way we train. You say:
"...Guard heavy units are really part of the nation's strategic reserve. And given the unpredictable state of the world I think that we need them."
I agree -- and we need more in the RC than we have while the AC will most likely need less for the foreseeable future.

You also mentioned a strategic analysis of need. Good idea. Whether such an analysis could transcend the politics of either COIN units (doubtful IMO) or more HIC in the RC than the AC (possible, barely) remains to be seen.