The Coming Year of Uncertainty

[Jedburgh]

CSIS, 21 May 08:

The Presidential Campaign, the Iraq and Afghan-Pakistan Wars and the Coming Year of Uncertainty

It may not be polite to say so, but the US, the world, and the next Presidency will be far better off if none of the Presidential candidates take what they are now saying about Iraq and Iran, or are failing to say about Afghanistan, all that seriously. The appendix to this report compares the positions of all three candidates on these issues as reflected in their websites. Some take strong stands based on current perceptions, but it will be nearly a year before the next President is elected, sworn in, and has his or her team in place.

The next President will inherit new facts on the ground about two wars in January 2009, when he or she takes the oath of office. Even if the new President chooses to withdraw form Iraq, his or her actions will have only limited initial impact on the forces in play as the next campaign season begins in 2009. In practice, it may well take until June 2009 to get their senior appointments in place, and it will take months longer to do adequate planning and begin to execute a comprehensive strategy. In the real world, the next President may not be able to fully shape a policy for either war, and gather real momentum in implementing it, until the fall of 2009.

This means the new Administration may only be able to have its full impact on the Iraq and Afghan-Pakistan Wars after two military campaign seasons and a host of political developments from now. A pragmatic, realistic policy should not be based on the exigencies of political campaigning. It should be based on how events change between spring 2008 and mid to late 2009.....

[SteveMetz]

I cackled at the title when I got that via email. Let's see--the coming year is one of "uncertainty" in contrast to all of those other years in the past and future when we know what's going to happen, right?

[Ron Humphrey]

I cackled at the title when I got that via email. Let's see--the coming year is one of "uncertainty" in contrast to all of those other years in the past and future when we know what's going to happen, right?

I thought it was pretty much a forgone conclusion that just like every other
year before it some things will turn out better than expected and most others will be #@$@#

[Entropy]

The thing that jumped out at me was "Afghan-Pakistan war."

[Ken White]

By the end of the year given the period post 1989 when the old wall came tumbling down and a Thousand Points of light were envisioned until end 2009, the US Army will for the first time in over a century have more time in combat than it does in a peacetime environment during the period.

I suggest that might mean that a strong, hard look at personnel, procurement and training systems designed essentially for a peacetime Army might not just be a long overdue and a good idea but might be literally vitally important...

[Old Eagle]

Yep. Tony speaks what no politician can/will. As with so many military efforts, the war in Afg can't be won solely inside the borders of that country. While all of Afg's neighbors are part of the eventual solution (good, bad or ugly), none plays the role Pak will.

Now the challenge is to win in Pak without unraveling the entire S. Asian construct. See that the new nom for Ch, ODC is a squid.