Saudi Arabia: seeking security (catch all)

[Firn]

Well I do focus more on the sinews of war, not the political conflict:

Contracts used to bet whether Saudi Arabia will allow its dollar-pegged currency to weaken were poised for the highest level in almost two decades as oil prices plummeted.

Twelve-month forward contracts for the riyal climbed 260 points to 950 as of 3:49 p.m. in Riyadh, set for the steepest close since December 1996, when Bloomberg began collecting the data. That reflects growing speculation the world’s biggest oil exporter may allow its currency to slide against the dollar for the first time since 1986.

A picture can say sometimes more then a hundred words...


In this context the previously unthinkable to most seems now possible to some: "Saudi Arabia Is Considering Aramco IPO, Deputy Crown Prince Says"

“Personally, I’m enthusiastic about this step,” [Deputy Crown Prince] Salman said.

Saudi Aramco produces all of Saudi Arabia’s crude oil, at 10.25 million barrels a day in December. Among listed companies, Russia’s OAO Rosneft produces more than 5 million barrels a day while Exxon Mobil Corp. pumps out about 4 million barrels.

An IPO will certainly be done in a way that Saudi Arabia de-jure and de-facto still controlls Aramco. Of course like many things it would have been smarter to make such moves in good times but buy high and sell low seems to be the motto of many a miner or driller, public, private or state-owned.

[Firn]

To sum up some of my thoughts on the economic (and political) future of Saudi Arabia:

1. What can't go on forever will end. Even with far higher oil prices - budget breakeven being at around 90$ - the expenditures must be reduced.

2. The McKinsey study is just one in a considerably number of studies and even official policies all aimed at creating a more diversified economy, so it's chances don't look good.

3. However as the economy can in the mid- to longterm no longer work like it does change has to be attempted. It will be very difficult as the terrible track-record shows, but it has to be tried.

4. Success, even a partly one, looks unlikely as past performance is a pretty good indicator, if not a guarantuee of future success.

5. Oil income has been bedrock of the royal might, enabling relatively generous social subsidies but also to pay the organisations of suppression and co-option (obviously all are related).


If we take the simple facts and combine them we have to come to the conclusion that Saud Arabia faces in the long run terrible economic challenges. If those aren't met properly, and history suggests that it will be hard to do so, the political system in Saudi Arabia is at grave risk. Of course it might conserve power for a long time even in the face of a much poorer society, but it is almost certain that Saudi Arabia will have a harder time seeking security then thirty years or so ago.


The Western would certainly do well to prepare well for a variety of scenarios. Things might continue in a certain fashion for a long time but can also change surprisingly quickly...

[CrowBat]

If the following is truth, Saudis should have no major security issues for quite some times any more...

Saudi policical analyst Dahham al-Anzi stating clearly on TV, 'yes Sir, Saudi Arabia has nukes' (via Memri TV, yes, but originally he stated that on an Arabic TV channel, on 15 February):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXuJkVPRjNI

Supposedly, they have a 'handful' of nuclear warheads in KSA, made by Pakistan, but guarded and maintained by Chinese.

Now, if they have such bombs, and considering circumstances, they might really do that test. And then....

...well, what then...?

[CrowBat]

...not to forget a day-earlier 'confirmation' from what sounds like quite an authoritative source: CIA Confirms: Saudi Arabia has Four to Seven Nuclear Bombs, Deliverable by Missile or Aircraft

..."Founding Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Counter-Terrorism Operations Center publicly confirms Saudi Arabia has deliverable nuclear bombs.

Last week, on "The Hal Turner Show" Mr. Turner told his audience that, based on his years of experience as a National Security Intelligence Asset with the FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force, Saudi Arabia is in possession of nuclear weapons. He also made clear that a CIA asset had (earlier) made this revelation in public, on FOX NEWS CHANNEL, and this revelation was a staggering breach of Classified Information protocols.

Turner went on to say that "the only way a guy from the CIA would reveal such information is if Washington WANTED the information revealed; otherwise the person who exposed the classified material could be criminally prosecuted."
...

(Added by Moderator) The "CIA guy" film clip on Fox News is available via:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qt3t...ature=youtu.be

[davidbfpo]

Leaving aside the details (as per map), the timing and method one must wonder at the impact within several Western nations, Israel, even Iran and in the USA. Perhaps officialdom knew and just forgot to tell the public?

From my memory there has been reporting about the Chinese-made SSM before and the KSA refusal to allow the USA to pay a "courtesy" visit. As for them having nuclear warheads that IMHO is a moot point. I have a vague recollection that the USA reassured Israel on the SSM's deployment they had only high explosive warheads.

In fact I am sure the SSMs have appeared on SWC before and their bases were then shown as nearer to Israel than the map provided today.

See Post 43 for a detailed report from December 2014:http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles...les-its-saber/

Within is this paragraph:

While Chinese DF-3 missiles were armed with large multi-megaton warheads - and thus did not need to be especially accurate - Saudi Arabia's conventionally-armed variants required far better accuracy to provide effective deterrence. China, apparently with Israeli technical assistance, reportedly produced a more accurate version of the DF-3. In April 1988, China delivered the second consignment of DF-3 missiles with "drastically improved" accuracy to replace those delivered a few months before. In the end, Saudi Arabia imported approximately 40 DF-3 missiles capable of carrying a 2,000 kilogram explosive payload to a range of 3,000 km.

(Chinese helpers on-site?) On balance, however, the evidence suggests that the Royal Saudi Strategic Missile Force is, in fact, Saudi.

[davidbfpo]

The cited "CIA guy" is a Duane Clarridge, who appears in stand-alone posts on SWC awhile back and left the CIA in 1991 "under a cloud" over the Iran-Contra episode. He then ran a private intelligence group. See Wiki for some background:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duane_Clarridge

[CrowBat]

Leaving aside the details (as per map), the timing and method one must wonder at the impact within several Western nations, Israel, even Iran and in the USA. Perhaps officialdom knew and just forgot to tell the public?

'Connect the dots', David - and here's the timing (as posted by Outlaw in Syria-thread):

Did Russia Just Threaten Turkey With Nuclear Weapons?

'Executive Summary': a source close to Putler said to investigative journo Robert Parry that Russia warned Erdogan that it is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons to defend its forces in Syria from Turkish attack.

Why is this important?

Because with one third of the NATO consisting of Islamo- and all other sorts of Xenophobes, one third of presidents and chancelors (or at least members of governments) on Gazprom's and similar paylists, and Oblaba's admin going de-facto pro-PKK/anti-Turkey, it's obvious Erdo is feeling under a threat.

What a better moment but to pull out a big stick - in form of Saudi nukes?

Now the Russians can threat as much as they like, but they have to take into account: Turkey has a sort of 'nuclear umbrella' - with or without shaky NATO.

[davidbfpo]

Crowbat,

A quick note. The original, online story by Robert Parry was published on the 18th February 2016 and the relevant passage is:

A source close to Russian President Vladimir Putin told me that the Russians have warned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Moscow is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons if necessary to save their troops in the face of a Turkish-Saudi onslaught. Since Turkey is a member of NATO, any such conflict could quickly escalate into a full-scale nuclear confrontation.

The author's very slim byline at the end says:

Investigative reporter Robert Parry broke many of the Iran-Contra stories for The Associated Press and Newsweek in the 1980s.

Link:https://consortiumnews.com/2016/02/1...-for-al-qaeda/

Now, isn't that a really interesting coincidence given the past of Duane Clarridge?

The long article touches upon many aspects of the Syrian civil war and USG policy. Needless to say the author is a critic of President Obama.

So one whispered 'source close to Russian President Vladimir Putin told me' and the media circus spins. Makes you wonder, well it does here.