Saudi Arabia: seeking security (catch all)

[Bob's World]

With nearly 50% of foreign fighters going to Iraq being Saudi citizens, and of course 3/4 of the 9/11 attackers, there is clearly a deep-seated disconnect between the people of Saudi Arabia and there Government. There is equally clearly a blame placed upon the United States for that particular situation.

No number of new prisons or re-education programs are likely to resolve this fundamental problem. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is arguably the Decisive Point for what we call the GWOT. This is not to adocate any type of military operation there, but certainly to suggest that this needs to be at the top of the new President's list for governments that he needs to have a serious heart to heart with. Until we stop supporting this government, we can expect to a target of frustrated young Saudi men who recognize that step one to a successful insurgency at home, is to break the support to that government from abroad. Until the Saudi government implements serious reforms to better serve its populace, it can expect to be the target of those same young men.

[120mm]

With nearly 50% of foreign fighters going to Iraq being Saudi citizens, and of course 3/4 of the 9/11 attackers, there is clearly a deep-seated disconnect between the people of Saudi Arabia and there Government. There is equally clearly a blame placed upon the United States for that particular situation.

No number of new prisons or re-education programs are likely to resolve this fundamental problem. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is arguably the Decisive Point for what we call the GWOT. This is not to adocate any type of military operation there, but certainly to suggest that this needs to be at the top of the new President's list for governments that he needs to have a serious heart to heart with. Until we stop supporting this government, we can expect to a target of frustrated young Saudi men who recognize that step one to a successful insurgency at home, is to break the support to that government from abroad. Until the Saudi government implements serious reforms to better serve its populace, it can expect to be the target of those same young men.

Here, you pick a "wicked problem". Continue support the status quo and risk the almost certain eventual pot boiling over of extremism. Stop supporting, or even attack the status quo, and almost certainly guarantee a new Iran for Wahhabism.

You'd almost certainly have to engage some pretty radical folks to keep a lid on, with the accompanying danger of supporting folks who will end up attacking you anyway.

[Bob's World]

Absolutely this is complex business. Clearly the Status Quo is a policy that became obsolete with the end of the Cold War that gave birth to it. We need a new, post Cold War policy that helps the populaces of the middle east and their governments evolve. The baggage of our Cold War engagement, and European engagement prior to that; along with the incredible complexity of a Muslim religion that due to Globalization is facing the same type of reformist pressures that threw Christianity and Europe into 250 years of violence and upheaval (1450-1700), it is a mine field.

We need to extricate ourselves from being overly engaged directly, and get into more of a mediator role to help guide what could be an incredibly explosive transition. It will call for brand new policies, new thinking, and a major suppressant of our urge to CONTROL the process, and instead simply guide it so that our own national interests to not get trampled in the chaos.

[120mm]

Absolutely this is complex business. Clearly the Status Quo is a policy that became obsolete with the end of the Cold War that gave birth to it. We need a new, post Cold War policy that helps the populaces of the middle east and their governments evolve. The baggage of our Cold War engagement, and European engagement prior to that; along with the incredible complexity of a Muslim religion that due to Globalization is facing the same type of reformist pressures that threw Christianity and Europe into 250 years of violence and upheaval (1450-1700), it is a mine field.

We need to extricate ourselves from being overly engaged directly, and get into more of a mediator role to help guide what could be an incredibly explosive transition. It will call for brand new policies, new thinking, and a major suppressant of our urge to CONTROL the process, and instead simply guide it so that our own national interests to not get trampled in the chaos.

The key issue is control. I sincerely doubt it is possible for our polity, or military decision-makers to NOT dominate and attempt to control anything within their purview.

So, the question is, schto delyat? What do we do, going forward, in the imperfect nature of our system?

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to LWOT:

Saudi Arabia on January 8 began the trial of 16 suspected members of al-Qaeda accused of killing a policeman, plotting to attack government officials and military weapons facilities, smuggling weapons and training militants to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan (Reuters). The suspects are just a few of several thousand arrested in the Kingdom's clampdown on militancy between 2003 and 2006, of whom most have already faced trial according to the Saudi government, though human rights groups disagree and have said the government continues to hold thousands of political prisoners under the pretense of militancy.

Link to Reuters report:http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...80708W20120108

Link to LWOT briefing, KSA is just one item:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...nse_in_florida

[davidbfpo]

Today I have renamed this thread, it was 'Failed Attack in Saudi Arabia' and after that attack had moved along to other internal issues of terrorism.

There is a parallel thread 'US policy with an ally like the Saudis...', it appears not to cover acts of terrorism and the Saudi response. It is at:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=2119

[davidbfpo]

Recent disorder in the Eastern Province received some coverage here and then faded away:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16543013

This link is to a background comment, although the author is Washington-based let's say his viewpoint is slanted:http://www.opendemocracy.net/joshua-...n-saudi-arabia

I know disorder in this reportedly mainly Shia minority dominated province has long been feared by outsiders, being adjacent to the oilfields.

[AdamG]

PARIS: Saudi Arabia has threatened military action against Qatar if it goes ahead and acquires Russia's top of the range S-400 air defence missile system, Le Monde daily reported. Citing information it had obtained, Le Monde said Friday that Riyadh had written to French President Emmanuel Macron asking him to intervene to prevent the deal going ahead and to help preserve regional stability.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/64427860.cms