Saudi Arabia: seeking security (catch all)

[davidbfpo]

Another article by Nawaf Obaid (bio in previous post) and is hardly reassuring:

Saudi Arabia has for past several years been laying the groundwork for a civil nuclear program with no PMDs (possible military dimensions). However, there is a strong possibility that the Kingdom might begin to engage in contingency planning for a defensive nuclear program with PMDs. This planning represents an emerging Saudi nuclear defence doctrine.

(Later) None should doubt that the Saudi scientific community possesses the know-how and technical infrastructure to realize this nuclear defense doctrine

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gene...r-weapons.html

Somehow I doubt KSA has such a national capability, given its track record in importing talent in the securitys ector and elsewhere. More likely the talent will be imported, from Pakistan in particular.

[davidbfpo]

A succint briefing from The Soufan Group and BLUF:

The Saudi Arabian government announced that it has arrested 431 individuals, most over the last month, on charges associated with the Islamic State • Few countries are as sensitive to instability concerns as Saudi Arabia, and the country faces a serious domestic threat of Islamic State cells
• Following a steady procession of suicide bombings and shootings, Saudi Arabia is trying to disrupt the Islamic State’s momentum inside the country
• The number of Saudi nationals who have traveled to join the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq pales in relation to the potential recruiting pool of radicalized young Saudis who might prefer to fight at home.

Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...state-at-home/


I wonder if anyone in KSA has pointed out that in the Yemen the KSA is acting in apparent concert with AQAP?

[davidbfpo]

From a short paper by the Washington DC based Wilson Center:

The Yemeni civil war is making for strange bedfellows. Who would have predicted that Saudi Arabia and al-Qaeda might become allies despite the terrorist group’s near success in assassinating the current Saudi crown prince six years ago? Who would have thought the Kingdom would turn to the Muslim Brotherhood for help even though the Saudis have condemned it as a terrorist group at home? But this is what is happening in Yemen as the struggle between factions, seen by rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran as proxies of each other, relentlessly grinds on with no end in sight. These Saudi alliances may be mainly tactical and of short duration, but they are straining Saudi relations with the United States, which regards al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) as the most dangerous terrorist threat to the U.S. homeland. They are also angering Egypt’s President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, who looks upon the Brotherhood as an existential threat and the main source of the escalating terrorist insurgency he faces.

Link:http://www.wilsoncenter.org/publicat...-allies-yemen?

[CrowBat]

...just because Oblabla is holding half the report on 9/11 locked due to Saudi involvement, means not it's really 'surprising' the Saudis are cooperating with al-Qaida, Moslem Brotherhood etc., especially so in Yemen.

If anybody 'imported' Wahhabism into that country, then it was the Saudis, and that with all force, and every Dollar they could spend for that purpose, already since early 1990s.

Much more worrying is the fact that the Saudis are dumb enough to believe they could hold the powers they have unleashed there 'under control'.

...and that nobody in the West cares about this.

Greetings from 'new' Saudi allies in Yemen:

Al Qaeda's branch in Yemen, which officials have called the terror group's most dangerous affiliate, has issued two threatening new communiques praising recent lone-wolf style attacks against the West and calling for more of them.

"We urge you to strike America in its own home and beyond," says a letter attributed to Ibrahim al-Asiri, the master bomb-maker with al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
...

Hey... when one thinks of it... since Saudi Arabia is a US ally, the AQAP is now de-facto US ally too, or isn't it...?!?

[davidbfpo]

Sometimes I do wonder with all the history of the Yemen a BBC SME, from RUSI, can write this:

The retaking of a key air base to the north of the southern city of Aden is a major strategic victory for the Yemeni government in its fight against the Houthi-led insurgency.The al-Anad air base is important for a number of reasons.....is extremely important for operations against AQAP)....It was a badly kept secret that much of the US drone programme that targeted al-Qaeda operatives in the south of the country was based out of al-Anad....The recapture of the base and the surrounding areas will ensure that a long-term counter terror presence can be maintaine..

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-33778116

Given that part of the anti-Houthi allaince is AQAP, let alone the stance of the Saudis, would the US be allowed to return and attack AQAP? I think not.

Then the BBC's own correspondent, Frank Gardner, reflects on the KSA's new assertiveness:

...the Saudi military has now been at war with Houthi rebels for more than four months....For Saudi Arabia, this is about more than just securing its southern flank.The Saudis fear they are being steadily encircled by Iranian allies and this is something they want to reverse.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-33825064

[davidbfpo]

Not sure what to make of this article, although Saud family rivalry is not new:http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/sa...pse-1612130905

[Firn]

Their intervention in Yemen doesn't seem to go all too well but perhaps more surprising has been the drop in their global assets. 50+ billion is only part of their holdings but it shows they have a huge deficit to cover:

With income from oil accounting for about 80 percent of revenue, Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit may widen to 20 percent of gross domestic product this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. SAMA plans to raise between 90 billion riyals ($24 billion) and 100 billion riyals in bonds before the end of the year as it seeks to diversify its $752 billion economy, people familiar with the matter said in August.

Diversification has been buzzing around for decades, if I'm not mistakes. Funny how the Saudi manager of the pv plants is making exactly the same point as we did some years ago in the energy security thread. Cut the stupid fuel subsidies, save money and sell more abroad to get much more money. Then again this is basic math and common sense so it wasn't all that difficult to get right. In any case the public addiction to those state-sponsored prices will be hard to crack.