Saudi Arabia: seeking security (catch all)

[SWJED]

... on the timely Jamestown Foundation report.

[Jedburgh]

Follow-up report from CSIS: The Impact of the Abqaiq Attack on Saudi Energy Security

It is too early to know the full details of what actually took place at the Abqaiq oil facility in eastern Saudi Arabia, but early reports indicate that an attempted attack was foiled by Saudi security forces on February 24, 2006. The news caused oil prices to jump more than $2 a barrel.

The reaction of the oil market—that is all too aware of geopolitical, security, and economic risks—is expected. The attack comes amidst continuing instability in Iraq, the uncertainty regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, and the ongoing violence and supply disruption in Nigeria.

Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil producer and exporter. It holds 25% of the world’s proven oil reserves (261 billion barrels), produces 12.5% of the world’s oil production (9.0-9.5 million barrels a day), and exports 16% of world’s total exports (7.5 million barrels a day). Furthermore, the Kingdom has the largest surplus oil production capacity (approximately 1.1-1.8 million barrels a day.

The stability of the global oil market depends not only on the Kingdom’s capacity to meet shortages in oil supply, but also in its ability to reassure the market. In the past, Saudi Arabia has played the role of “swing producer” to meet shortages in supply. Now, the attention is focused on the Kingdom’s ability to meet global oil demand and protect its key oil facilities.

In the case of Abqaiq, even if some of the facilities were destroyed, Saudi Aramco has claimed that it has backup and redundant facilities to produce at near capacity. The same fears about Saudi energy security arose after the May 2004 attack in Yanbu. During that incident, the Saudi security forces were also able to suppress the attack. The terrorists were quickly killed and the facilities in Yanbu were not in danger. That, however, did not stop speculation about Saudi energy security.

[Jedburgh]

The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 16 Aug 07:

Extremist Reeducation and Rehabilitation in Saudi Arabia

For the past three years, the Saudi government has been quietly engaged in an ambitious strategy to combat violent Islamist extremist sympathies through an innovative prisoner reeducation and rehabilitation program. Following the May 2003 Riyadh compound bombings, the regime adopted a series of security measures to fight Islamist terrorism. In addition to the aggressive counter-terrorism steps taken by the government, Saudi officials have also sought to combat the support of extremist ideology in the kingdom through a series of lesser-known "soft" counter-terrorism measures aimed at combating the appeal of extremist takfiri beliefs. These measures have included a sophisticated hearts and minds campaign consisting of a combination of state-sponsored education programs, coordinated public relations and media efforts and the deployment of the government's considerable religious resources. It is from this background that the reeducation program has emerged. While only three years old, the program was initially kept a secret in order to encourage its success away from media attention. Thus far, it has generated some noteworthy results, and it is now discussed openly and frequently in the Saudi media. The program's structure, process and relative successes, however, are all but unknown in the United States....

[bourbon]

Saudis arrest 208 men in terror sweep: Arrests ‘pre-empted an imminent attack’ on oil installation, statement says. Associated Press, Nov. 28, 2007

Hit Abqaiq and/or Ras Tanura, during winter months to maximize effect on the far enemy in the West, and hit the near enemy -- Saudi state. Hit two birds with one stone? Or are they mutually exclusive in AQ thinking?

[kehenry1]

Well, I think it's interesting considering I just read that the navy had ordered up four fuel tankers for December as opposed to their usual two/mo. Which was presupposed by the writer to be in relationship to a potential offensive or some operation in the Gulf to intimidate the Iranians.

However, I wonder if they are simply preparing for a potential shortage based on such intelligence?

This was open sourced news report. I'll try to find the link.

[Jedburgh]

Well, I think it's interesting considering I just read that the navy had ordered up four fuel tankers for December as opposed to their usual two/mo. Which was presupposed by the writer to be in relationship to a potential offensive or some operation in the Gulf to intimidate the Iranians.

However, I wonder if they are simply preparing for a potential shortage based on such intelligence?

This was open sourced news report. I'll try to find the link.

It was posted and reposted in newsmedia and not a few blogs. Here's one link:

US Navy steps up fuel deliveries to Gulf forces, Reuters 23 Nov 07

....One of the largest commercial tanker hires is on a time-charter basis, the length of time a ship is sought, stipulating a period of 90 days to carry a range of fuels between locations in the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

The time charter, which begins in early December and allows for multiple journeys in Gulf waters, is to carry a minimum of 310,000 barrels of jet and marine fuel, some of it JP5.

“What’s most interesting is the time-charter in the Gulf. It’s a big ship and here we have a commitment for a lot of movement of fuels, backwards and forwards down to the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman,” the Gulf source said.

“This confirms there is going to be a lot of activity, possibly a serious demonstration to Iran that the military means to protect the Hormuz Strait,” he said.

He pointed out that Saudi Arabia had already promised US forces long-term fuel supplies this year, known as term tenders.

In February, oil industry sources told Reuters Riyadh had raised the amount of jet fuel earmarked for the military from 1.5 million barrels last year to close to eight million in 2007.....

[Jedburgh]

The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 24 Jan 08:

Jailing Jihadis: Saudi Arabia’s Special Terrorist Prisons

Saudi Arabia is nearing completion of new purpose-built prison facilities for its program of rehabilitation and counseling for Islamist militants. Under this program five new specialized prisons have been built in Riyadh, Qassim, Abha, Dammam, and Jiddah over the span of approximately nine months. These new facilities have been designed to facilitate the dialogue process while at the same time housing individuals assessed to be significant security risks. These five new prisons are each designed to hold up to 1,200 prisoners.

The decision to build specially-dedicated facilities in which to focus on the counseling program was based upon a number of considerations. First and foremost was the fact that the existing prison facilities were not designed to promote dialogue and it was determined that successful advancement of the rehabilitation program could best be done through new specially-designed facilities. Furthermore, these new facilities would make the classification and segregation of detainees easier. The classification of detainees into those more predisposed to dialogue, and then separation of them from other more militant prisoners, would encourage and facilitate the work of the Advisory Committee, the Ministry of the Interior body that runs the rehabilitation program.....