Germans in Afghanistan

[Fuchs]

The PzH2000 thin is old news. They'll probably arrive by November.

I wait for confirmation before I believe the helicopter story (the Tiger is expected to be operational by late 2012, and German Apache crews wouldn't be available much sooner anyway - and there's no need for 50.
The most likely explanation for the claim is that the U.S. moves simply some helos up to the North.
The source (Bild) is a crappy wannabe-newspaper. Big letters, primitive stories, strong conservative bias, #### on page 1.

[Fuchs]

Yep, another newspaper (in German, the kinda serious brother of the Bild) confirmed that the U.S. will move 50 helicopters to the North, not give them to the Bundeswehr.

[Surferbeetle]

Firn, Igel, Fuchs, and Mike,

Many projects have at least three parts, a political part, a economic part, and a technical one (security in this case). In theory at least, all portions of a project need to be at least somewhat synchronized or harmonized in order to achieve success (defining success, however, can be tough)...

Recent German elections in the Land (or State) of North Rhine Westphalia, the most populous state with ~ 18 million out of ~82 million people, point towards a democratic dissatisfaction with the direction of Germany's course under the current political coalition. Does this particular Land represent the national consensus across all 16 of Germany's Lander?

The majority of the reporting seems to focus upon economic (Euro) issues at this point, but as we have discussed previously over 60% of German voters seem to be against the Afghanistan expedition.

From the May 13th edition of the Economist, Now what?

MAY 9th is not a day Angela Merkel will soon forget. First voters in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany’s most populous state, booted the chancellor’s allies out of office, meting out her worst political drubbing in more than five years in office. That evening European finance ministers meeting in Brussels armed a financial bomb to deter speculators threatening the stability of the euro (see article). It seemed to work, but may also demolish Germans’ long-term trust in the single currency. Both events will transform Mrs Merkel’s chancellorship.

The setbacks are at least partly of her own making. In NRW voters unseated a coalition between her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) akin to the one she leads nationally. That was in part a slap at Mrs Merkel’s seven-month-old government. Jürgen Rüttgers, the defeated CDU premier, had struggled against a “headwind” from Berlin, she acknowledged.

From the 9 May edition of the German Newspaper/Magazine Stern, Warum NRW Berlin erzittern lässt

Dort leben knapp 18 Millionen Menschen, deutlich mehr als in den Niederlanden, Belgien oder der Schweiz, von Dänemark ganz zu schweigen. Von diesen 18 Millionen Menschen sind 13,5 Millionen wahlberechtigt. Allein deswegen werden die Landtagswahlen in NRW völlig zu Recht als "kleine Bundestagswahl" bezeichnet. Darüber hinaus ist NRW eine Art politischer Seismograph: Die Ergebnisse spiegeln auch die (Un-)Zufriedenheit mit der Bundesregierung.

[Fuchs]

Does this particular Land represent the national consensus across all 16 of Germany's Lander?

Our equivalent of a senate is manend with representatives of the state governments - they do always vote according to the state government's line and are exchanged with a change of power in that state.

The recent election destroyed Merkel's majority in the Bundesrat (~senate).
This means that the German federal government cannot push federal bills into law* if those laws incurr additional responsibilities on the states (that would give the Bundestag the right to be included in the process).

This is not going to be relevant for defence or foreign policy.

*: (The Bundestag ~congress is usually loyal to the government because the government is almost always a coalition project that the parliamentarians agreed to as well)



Besides; Germans are always unsatisfied with a government that's not reforming or active in times of crisis. This means that conservatives are always unpopular in such times because they're the embodiment of "no real reform". <- my political opinion
The greater problem is at this time the junior coalition partner, the FDP (liberals, most pro-business party in Germany). The did some horrendous things and their chairman is an opposition politician (has led the FDP in opposition for about a decade) who's apparently useless as minister (he's foreign minister).

[Surferbeetle]

Fuchs,

As always I appreciate your european-based analysis. I do wonder about this statement however,

This is not going to be relevant for defence or foreign policy.

From the FT The death of the European dream, By Gideon Rachman
Published: May 17 2010

What Europe represents is not so much raw power as the power of an idea – a European dream. For internationalists everywhere, for believers in much deeper co-operation between nations, for those pushing for the establishment of an international legal order, the EU is a beacon of hope.

If the European experiment begins to unravel – after more than 60 years of painstaking advances – then the ideas that Europe represents will also suffer severe damage. Rival ideas – the primacy of power over law, the enduring supremacy of the nation state, authoritarianism – may gain ground instead.

The foreign supporters of the European dream are not just obscure professors at American liberal arts colleges – although there are plenty of those. The fans of the European dream include the prime minister of Japan and the president of the US.

While the EU’s foreign admirers are on the defensive, international Eurosceptics are in the ascendancy. Charles Grant, head of the Centre for European Reform, a pro-EU think-tank, says he has been struck on his recent travels by the growing disdain for Europe in Delhi, Beijing and Washington. “We’re seen as locked into permanent economic and demographic decline, and our pretensions to hard power are treated with contempt,” he laments.

[Fuchs]

"This" meant the past NRW election.
The 16 states have no say on defence and foreign policy matters. The competencies are laid out clearly in the constitution.

The NRW election only adds a domestic policy constriction to Merkel's government.


The views of foreigners about the EU are about 99.9% uninteresting to the common people and I don't recall a specific example when they influenced our policy.

The EU movement is pretty much an ideology that sustained itself with its successes. There's a problem with the monetary union that seems to correct this ideologic drive a bit. Setbacks jump-start the learning process and are not necessarily disastrous.
The problems were utterly predictable, were predicted and I actually learned about them at a university two years before the monetary reform. Ideology won over rational analysis and this negative experience may prevent that this will be repeated on a grand scale anytime soon.

And seriously; almost no Germans have a clue about the abhorrent myths that many Americans and other foreigners have about European demographics. The utter ignorance of people who believe Germany or France are 40% Muslim or Europe is "surrendering to Muslims without a fight in a few years" really belongs to a loud fringe that's rightfully being ignored.

And I doubt that EU politics and bureaucracy are more indecisive or less competent than the U.S., Chinese, Japanese, Indian or Russian counterparts.
We tend to actually regulate when the law says there's regulation. We have no parties that willfully send ineffective people into government positions in order to prove that "the state is the problem, not the solution". Yes, that's actually my impression of the GWB era.

[Surferbeetle]

The visage of Herr Konrad Adenauer used to stare up at me from some of the Deutsche Mark coins I carried around while traveling through Europe. His impact upon German politics, foreign policy, as well as domestic economics is still seen to be significant in some quarters. It was during the course of his multiple terms in office that Germany regained sovereignty, that Europe was unified, and that Germany’s social economic model was constructed. I will use a portion of the history of his fourth German chancellorship, as well as my finite understanding of the German political system, to construct a short case study to examine how State (Landetag) politics have impacted Federal (Bundesrat and Bundestag) politics in Germany.

The Grundgesetz (which translates to Basic Law, and is Germany’s Constitution) was effected on 23 May 1949 and it stipulates the roles and responsibilities of the Constitutional institutions. The federal legislative branch is composed of a bicameral parliament; the Bundesrat and Bundestag. At the state level the legislative branch is unicameral and is composed of the Landtag. The Verwaltungsverfahrensgesetz ( in English and in German ) drives administrative law at both the federal and state levels. Verwaltungsverfahrensgesetz, what a great word…try saying that one fast three times in a row…

The NRW election of May 2010 was a Landtag or state parliament election, which was held to democratically determine the composition of the Land’s 187 member parliament. During Konrad Adenauer’s time the NRW was known for its strength in coal and steel production, it still contributes about 20 percent of Germany’s GDP today, is Germany’s largest state, and was once part of historically significant Prussia. A practical example of the power of the Landtag can be seen in the intersection of Ordungspolitik and the Mittelstand. Mittlestand companies are credited with being the backbone of the German economy.

The Bundesrat is a Federal Council, known as the upper house, which provides indirect representation because it is made up of 69 appointed members who represent the 16 Lander at the federal level. Landtag elections can change the composition of the Bundesrat due to changes in state level government composition. Bundesrat members representing a particular State must vote as a bloc. Furthermore the Bundesrat has a say in which legislation can be considered at the federal parliament or Bundestag. It has a strong administrative role which includes absolute veto powers for bills amending the Grundgesetz, affecting state finances, or administrative sovereignty of states.

The Bundestag is a Federal Assembly, known as the lower house, which provides direct representation through members directed elected by the public. It’s role is to elect the chancellor, exercise oversight of the executive branch, and to act as a federal legislative branch by developing legislative and statutory law.

So, with the definitions out of the way, let’s see how state level politics can significantly influence federal level politics in Germany. In September of 1961, as a result of federal elections, Konrad Adenauer had to form a coalition between his CDU/CSU party and the FDP party in part because he lost support at the state level due to the construction of the Berlin Wall. With the CDU/CSU no longer the majority, his FDP coalition partners were in a position to ask him to replace his foreign minister Heinrich von Brentano di Tremezzo with Gerhard Schroder and relinquish his chancellorship before the end of his fourth term would have normally ended in 1965 (in part due to additional problems - Spiegel Scandal). Chasing Landtag (10 sets!) and Bundesrat composition numbers which stagger across the time periods of the federal elections of 1957, 1961, and 1965 is interesting but consumes more time than I currently am willing to dedicate.

Taking things literally one could ask if I am saying that the current challenges to the fiscal walls of the Euro are analogous to the impacts of the Berlin Wall or if Frau Merkel and her CDU/CSU & FDP coalition are analogous to that of Herr Adenauer and his CDU/CSU & FDP coalition. Unfortunately history is squishy; it is not amenable to rigorous quantitative analysis or direct one for one comparisons. At a minimum there are some interesting parallels to think about between 1961 and 2010: in my opinion one of those parallels is the potential impact that Lander politics can have upon Federal politics in Germany.