Israel & intelligence (merged thread)

[bourbon]

Israeli Hit Squad? Dubai Police Issue International Warrants: 11-Person Team Used Disguises, Fake European Passports in Plot To Kill Top Hamas Leader, by Lara Setrakian and Brian Ross. ABC News, Feb. 16, 2010.

All signs point to an Israeli hit squad, using fake passports and elaborate disguises, in the assassination of a top Hamas leader in a Dubai hotel room, according to current and former intelligence officials.

Police in Dubai have issued international arrest warrants for eleven people wanted in the murder of Mahmoud al Mabhouh, a Hamas military commander, who was found dead in his room at the five-star Al Bustan Rotana Hotel in Dubai.

[davidbfpo]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...passports.html

Trade craft?

[bourbon]

Trade craft?

They must have figured the exposure from the cctv into their calculus, right? Perhaps they decided it was still worth it, and that it would send a message to the enemy. Deniability wouldn’t have been much of a factor then.

[Entropy]

The video the Dubai police put together is pretty amazing.

[omarali50]

If Israeli secret services did this (and they must be top of the list of suspects right now), then this is exceptionally stupid. It reeks of arrogance AND stupidity. What message could be worth this kind of nonsense? Israel may have the self-image of a superpower, but its still a relatively small country and its protectors are not going to take infinite pains for its sake...this seems very stupid to me.

[BayonetBrant]

maybe someone wanted it to look like the Israelis did it. anyone taking a whack at a Hamas leader had to know Israel would get blamed for it no matter who actually did it. OBL could get drunk and shoot an Al-Jazeera news anchor on live TV and someone would still blame the Mossad.

[omarali50]

maybe someone wanted it to look like the Israelis did it. anyone taking a whack at a Hamas leader had to know Israel would get blamed for it no matter who actually did it. OBL could get drunk and shoot an Al-Jazeera news anchor on live TV and someone would still blame the Mossad.

What you say may be generally true, but in this SPECIFIC case, the kicker is in the details: what hamas intelligence agency has the wherewithal to find the passport information of 11 Europeans with Israeli connections?

[bourbon]

What message could be worth this kind of nonsense?

Sow fear and discord amongst the enemy, and their financiers and suppliers. It lets the enemy know that they are not even safe in the peaceful sanctuary of Dubai. Israel has also been trying to bolster its deterrence credibility since the 2006 Lebanon war.

Israel may have the self-image of a superpower, but its still a relatively small country and its protectors are not going to take infinite pains for its sake...this seems very stupid to me.

The U.S. Congress will.

[Firn]

If Israeli secret services did this (and they must be top of the list of suspects right now), then this is exceptionally stupid. It reeks of arrogance AND stupidity. What message could be worth this kind of nonsense? Israel may have the self-image of a superpower, but its still a relatively small country and its protectors are not going to take infinite pains for its sake...this seems very stupid to me.

Ambiguity coupled with apparently irrational or unpredictable behavior can be a precious ressource. But it can also come at a high price.

Even the most secret Secret Services are staffed with humans and errare humanum est, so something could have gone wrong, or perhaps extremely well.


Firn

[Rex Brynen]

There's no particular downside to the Israelis from this hit (other than a few Mossad operatives whose photos have now been circulated). It sends a message, possibly prods Hamas into a poetentially self-destructive mole-hunt, removes an effective operative, and pays off well domestically.

Had they botched it--as they did in Lillehammer in 1973, Amman in 1997, or Auckland in 2004 it would have been a different matter. Also, unlike the Mishal assassination attempt in Jordan, I don't think Israeli relations with Dubai/UAE are of particular concern to the Netanyahu government (although Wilf might want to be careful next time he's traveling to or via the Gulf!)