If Israeli secret services did this (and they must be top of the list of suspects right now), then this is exceptionally stupid. It reeks of arrogance AND stupidity. What message could be worth this kind of nonsense? Israel may have the self-image of a superpower, but its still a relatively small country and its protectors are not going to take infinite pains for its sake...this seems very stupid to me.
maybe someone wanted it to look like the Israelis did it. anyone taking a whack at a Hamas leader had to know Israel would get blamed for it no matter who actually did it. OBL could get drunk and shoot an Al-Jazeera news anchor on live TV and someone would still blame the Mossad.
Brant
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What you say may be generally true, but in this SPECIFIC case, the kicker is in the details: what hamas intelligence agency has the wherewithal to find the passport information of 11 Europeans with Israeli connections?Originally Posted by BayonetBrant
And i would add that IF some other intelligence agency did this, then Isreal's goose is cooked more thoroughly than we think: The whole balance of power in this case is supposedly based on Israel and US having such immense superiority in skills that it completely overcomes any advantage Israel's opponents have in numbers...if those opponents are this good with the passports and personal info of people living in Israel or linked to Israel, then its time to short your bets on Israel...
Sow fear and discord amongst the enemy, and their financiers and suppliers. It lets the enemy know that they are not even safe in the peaceful sanctuary of Dubai. Israel has also been trying to bolster its deterrence credibility since the 2006 Lebanon war.
The U.S. Congress will.
Ambiguity coupled with apparently irrational or unpredictable behavior can be a precious ressource. But it can also come at a high price.
Even the most secret Secret Services are staffed with humans and errare humanum est, so something could have gone wrong, or perhaps extremely well.
Firn
There's no particular downside to the Israelis from this hit (other than a few Mossad operatives whose photos have now been circulated). It sends a message, possibly prods Hamas into a poetentially self-destructive mole-hunt, removes an effective operative, and pays off well domestically.
Had they botched it--as they did in Lillehammer in 1973, Amman in 1997, or Auckland in 2004 it would have been a different matter. Also, unlike the Mishal assassination attempt in Jordan, I don't think Israeli relations with Dubai/UAE are of particular concern to the Netanyahu government (although Wilf might want to be careful next time he's traveling to or via the Gulf!)
They mostly come at night. Mostly.
- university webpage: McGill University
- conflict simulations webpage: PaxSims
Wallah! Can't argue with any of that. Nice to see some opinion based on actual understanding.
Well I think I failed the Institute amateur-night try-outs back in my twenties, and these days everyone knows where I stand....although Wilf might want to be careful next time he's traveling to or via the Gulf!
Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"
- The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
- If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition
I disagree with the notion that it sows fear and confusion. If anything, it shows that they cannot do this every day. And whatever fear and confusion there is in the arab world, its imaginary conspiracy variant is already a few hundred times bigger than any real capabilities the Israelis have. I dont see this adding much to that "fear".
I also disagree with the statement that there is no downside. It is always unsafe to assume that current trends will persist forever. Military capabilities are ultimately tied to resources and capabilities of the society fielding that military. There is a large gap between the capabilities of Israeli (and US) society and Arab societies, but its not an infinite gap. Its going to close someday. Meanwhile, Israel is dependent on US support (European support has never been as impressive and is already declining) and that support is easier to provide when it is relatively cheap. When it gets hugely expensive and starts to bite, then the best of friends will start to think twice. Long before Arab military capabilities come close to Israel's, the Arab's ability to manipulate public opinion will improve to the point that US opinion will shift. These shenanigans bring that day closer, so they are not smart from an Israeli point of view. Just my opinion.
I see this as nothing but a win for the Israelis, not just because their adversary was killed, but because everybody is now talking about it, and regardless of whether Israel confirms or denies it, everybody is assuming that they did it. Message: we wanted you dead, and now you are. My only gripe is that nobody seems to see an issue with some supposed man of the people living the high life in Dubai. This is some "freedom fighter" who is fighting for the little guy, right? But he's living large in Dubai? Was he also pimpin around Gaza in an Escalade?
The fear and confusion stems from the possibility that the presumably highly compartmentalized information on al-Mabhouh's mission might have been leaked from within Hamas, or through compromised means of communication. Certainly Hamas as an organization won't be intimidated.
What will be interesting--and in this regard, the operation could have negative consequences for Israel--is whether Hamas lifts its self-prohibition on external operations (ie, those outside Palestine) to retaliate against an Israeli target in a third country.
He appears to have been in Dubai for operational reasons, Schmedlap--he didn't live thereMy only gripe is that nobody seems to see an issue with some supposed man of the people living the high life in Dubai.
They mostly come at night. Mostly.
- university webpage: McGill University
- conflict simulations webpage: PaxSims
Amen to that.The U.S. Congress will.
Omar, the Israelis have been caught red-handed spying on the U.S. several times. A U.S. Congressperson was caught on tape agreeing to try to interfere with an investigation of said spying with a suspected Israeli intelligence asset, signing off by saying "this conversation doesn't exist." There really isn't much that Israel can't do that Congress won't sign off on.
I agree mostly. As I wrote before it is hard to say which positive and negative impacts this possibly Mossad coup will have. We should not just look at the "bright" side.
Firn
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