Israel & intelligence (merged thread)

[Firn]

I suspect that:

1) Not everyone so far identified is actually Israeli

2) Dubai is IDing (as the article suggests) Israeli operatives who may have passed through for other reasons,

The IDing should pose no difficulties to the crafty Dubai police:

The National, an Abu Dhabi newspaper, reported on Monday that Mr. Tamim “claimed the police could identify Israelis by physical features and the way they speak.”

“It is easy for us to identify [Israelis], through their face or when they speak any other language,” the police chief told the newspaper. “We used to respect them when they would come holding European passports; we regarded them as Europeans and never treated them badly. But from now on, anyone we suspect to have a dual citizenship, they will be treated with great suspicion.” *

Said that, just like many other speakers, almost all Israelis I met had a quite telling accent when speaking English. I don't know if any Mossad agents were among them.

But good luck with the physical features .


Firn

[bourbon]

How Dubai unraveled a homicide, frame by frame, by Borzou Daragahi. Los Angeles Times, March 14, 2010.

A mix of old-fashioned legwork and high-tech razzle-dazzle, scouring hundreds of hours of surveillance videos, helped police home in on suspects in a Hamas man's slaying, blamed on Israel's Mossad.

A Perfectly Framed Assassination, by Robert Baer. The Wall Street Journal, February 27, 2010.

Stepped-up surveillance technology may be tipping the scales in the cat-and-mouse game between spies and their targets. Robert Baer on the current state of spycraft.

[stanleywinthrop]

How Dubai unraveled a homicide, frame by frame, by Borzou Daragahi. Los Angeles Times, March 14, 2010.


A Perfectly Framed Assassination, by Robert Baer. The Wall Street Journal, February 27, 2010.

I don't buy the WSJ angle on this. The fact is that all 20 or so supsects got away clean on this. In fact, they were all out of Dubai before the Hamas dude was discovered dead.

Until modern surveillance advances to the point where it can prevent these types of hits, or at least lead to quick captures of suspects, this type of operation remains an option for organizations like the Mossad.

Mossad isn't stupid. They knew that thier team members would be captured on film. They made the conscious decision that it was worth exposing operatives to get this guy. We can argue whether that was a good decision, but trust me it is no suprise to Mossad that these guys pics are being flashed all over the interwebs.

These 20 individuals are now in the process of transforming into Isreali farmers or shopkeepers where they will spend the rest of their lives. Mossad knew they could never be used in an international operation again.

[Uboat509]

The bottom line on this is that none of us will likely ever know the full story behind this, and even if we did, we would not be able to discuss it in an open forum. They may have decided that it was worth the exposure, or they may have not realized the extent of the surveillance or they may intentionally exposed themselves as a message to their enemies that they will do what they deem necessary to protect the state of Israel. Speculation about it is really kind of pointless since we will never know.

pacifist, I find nothing surprising in your letter, but I do have a prediction: In a few years, the media equation will start to change AND the costs of blindly supporting Israel will accelerate until even the rich and powerful US will have to think twice before spending billions carrying water for Israel all over the world...then, these apparently "normal" views will change.
Dont take my word for it, just be willing to rethink assumptions and look around...you will see that this situation is not tenable forever. It is in the interest of the Israeli people to make a reasonable peace with the Palestinians. Trying to beat and bludgeon their way out of this will not work.

Omar, long before that happens, the Arab nations of the world will have to do something about the perception that these nations are, by and large, populated by people who hate America. As long as that perception exists, Israel will be looked on as our only ally in the region. You can argue about whose fault it is that the perception exists but it does not change the fact of the perception.

[bourbon]

Until modern surveillance advances to the point where it can prevent these types of hits, or at least lead to quick captures of suspects, this type of operation remains an option for organizations like the Mossad.

The advances will come sooner rather than later; it’s a matter of if, not when. Dubai authorities now have the biometric data of 20+ operatives. It is not implausible that in the short-term future (if not now), that they’ll be able to run that data through years of video and pull up prior activity of operatives. That is going to expose more operatives and sources. Imagine if that info is networked with other countries.

Mossad isn't stupid. They knew that thier team members would be captured on film. They made the conscious decision that it was worth exposing operatives to get this guy. We can argue whether that was a good decision, but trust me it is no suprise to Mossad that these guys pics are being flashed all over the interwebs.

They took the risk potential exposure, yes; but they intended to make it look like a natural death. Being filmed does not matter if the authorities have no reason to go back and look at the tapes.

According to the LA Times article they injected him with succinylcholine which would paralyze him and then ultimately mimic a heart attack (delaying the time of death?). Something must have gone wrong and he was suffocated with a pillow. Coroners probably would have written it off as a heart attack, but they spotted puncture marks and an abnormality in the blood.

These 20 individuals are now in the process of transforming into Isreali farmers or shopkeepers where they will spend the rest of their lives. Mossad knew they could never be used in an international operation again.

Again, they took that risk; but hypothetically speaking if they knew that the direct cost was the exposure of 20 operatives, would it still be worth it?

[Kevin23]

My question is with all of this though why is the finger only being pointed at Israel so far? Sure they are first suspect to come to mind in a hit on a Palestinian militant organization figure like the guy killed in the case we are talking about. However I feel that everyone speculating on this at large aren't considering other nations or entities being behind the hit like Egypt, Fatah, or someone else, as the fellow who was killed was in the arms business and I'm sure like the Israeli's spokesperson who commented on the Dubai hit after it occurred was that "an arms dealer could have many enemies" not just the Israeli's.

[stanleywinthrop]

Again, they took that risk; but hypothetically speaking if they knew that the direct cost was the exposure of 20 operatives, would it still be worth it?

I don't know if it was worth it.

The point is that Isreal thought it was worth it.

[Rex Brynen]

Britain Expels Israel Diplomat Over Fake Passports

By JOHN F. BURNS
New York Times
Published: March 23, 2010

LONDON — In a rare move by a friendly government, Britain expelled an Israeli diplomat on Tuesday to rebuke the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for what it says was the fraudulent use of a dozen fake British passports in the assassination of a Hamas official in a Dubai hotel earlier this year.
Related

David Miliband, the British foreign secretary, said there were “compelling reasons” suggesting that Israel was behind the misuse of the British passports and called Israel’s actions “intolerable.”

“The fact that this was done by a friendly country only adds insult to injury,” he said in remarks to the House of Commons. “The actions in this case are completely unacceptable and they must stop.”

[davidbfpo]

Here are two UK reports on the expulsion of an Israeli diplomat in London:

Britain's relations with Israel sank to new low as Mossad's top agent was expelled from the country over the use of 12 forged British passports in the murder of a Hamas leader in Dubai.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...tolerable.html

The BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8582518.stm

Found elsewhere is an ex-CIA station chief, on Al-Jazeera:

...they are working from an old paradigm which simply is no longer relevant...The point is that in this day and time, with ubiquitous surveillance cameras, the ability to comprehensively analyse patterns of cell phone and credit card use, computerised records of travel documents which can be shared in the blink of an eye, the growing use of biometrics and machine-readable passports, and the ability of governments to share vast amounts of travel and security-related information almost instantaneously, it is virtually impossible for clandestine operatives not to leave behind a vast electronic trail which, if and when there is reason to examine it in detail, will amount to a huge body of evidence.

Tactical and strategic points made; link:http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/2...732842915.html

[Tukhachevskii]

There was a time when Lebanon was the refuge of choice for the more shady types. Has Dubai now captured that niche market? I only ask because the killing of Ramzan Kadyrov's main rival for power in Chechnya Sulim Yamadaev didn't cause as much of a furore (obviously because MOSSAD/Israel wasn't intimated). Given that the "fugitive" leader of Russia's Chechen unit (the Vostok Battalion) was staying in Dubai (which has a notable community there) can it be reasonably postulated that Dubai now occupies an important "safehaven" for certain groups (thereby replacing Lebanon as the prefered "offshore" destination)?

[davidbfpo]

A surprising development: BBC link http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asi...c/10302022.stm and The Daily Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...i-killing.html

[Fuchs]

I can't believe anyone of them was dumb enough to travel abroad.

[Rex Brynen]

'Mossad Chief to leave post'
Jerusalem Post
06/26/2010 00:21

Mossad Chief Meir Dagan is to leave his post in three months, Channel 2 news reported on Friday.

According to the report, Dagan, who has been head of the Mossad for the last eight years, requested to work another year in the role, but was refused.

...

The decision not to renew Dagan's appointment is likely related to the fallout from the recent attempt to assassinate Hamas commander Mahmoud al Mabhouh in Dubai.

...

[JMA]

I can't believe anyone of them was dumb enough to travel abroad.

Agreed.

[Rex Brynen]

I can't believe anyone of them was dumb enough to travel abroad.

Mossad isn't a large agency, and you can't replace clandestine operatives quickly. I doubt it is possible for all those identified with the Dubai operation to cancel all international travel for an indefinite period without seriously degrading the organization's effectiveness.

Sloppy tradecraft appears to have played a role here too.