Economic Surge
Rob,Originally Posted by Rob Thornton
I agree with your base assessment that stability in Iraq will lead to greater stability in the Middle East. This increased stability is in the Worlds interest as well as that of the United States, however to date we have had great difficulty expressing this both to the Regional and the World Communities. Perhaps it is time to change our tactics and use a 'new marketing plan' to advertise this change in emphasis.
The definition of security bears closer examination. My 1997 Webster’s Dictionary defines Secure as “a. Free from care, anxiety, fear; safe; fixed; stable; in close custody; certain; confident.“ Iraq is currently at a tipping point while all involved hold their breath and wait for America’s future Foreign Policy to coalesce and take shape following our elections. My thesis is that successfully isolating the civilian populace of Iraq from the insurgency has a significant economic component that has eclipsed the security component at this point. Though it may be politically painful for the current administration to consider, it is time for an Economic Surge.
The December 2006 issue of FM 3-24 advises us, in paragraph 1-124, that insurgents must be isolated from their cause and support and goes on to say “Dynamic insurgencies can replace losses quickly. Skillful counterinsurgents must thus cut off the sources of that recuperative power. Some sources can be reduced by redressing the social, political, and economic grievances that fuel the insurgency.” Dr. Nathan Toronto’s article, Forty Years of Coin, in the 3rd Quarter 2008 issue of Joint Force Quarterly briefly discusses how an $800,000 dollar investment after the Six Day War led to a $48 million dollar increase in Palestinian agricultural production in just three years with an associated measurable increase in security. It has been my personal observation that in Iraq a significant proportion of the population is unemployed, and that of these unemployed workers a significant portion is involved in agriculture. USAID, in their Iraq Transition Strategy Plan 2006-2008, presents as their second strategic objective “Expand Private Sector Opportunities”. This report notes that the agricultural sector is Iraq’s largest employer.
The Commanders Emergency Response Program provides an opportunity for Maneuver Commanders to build upon security successes, capitalize upon indecision inside of Iraq resulting from our upcoming election cycle and execute an Economic Surge in order to further separate the insurgents from the populace.
How can our Maneuver Commanders rapidly and accurately infuse an Economic Surge (Money is indeed a Weapon) into Iraq? Having significant funding (using a ratio of 1 dollar per x dinars in order to ensure both sides have skin in the game) and numerous (nine per BCT?) credentialed arabic speaking Subject Matter Expert Teams (i.e. local Iraqis) using a Public-Private-Partnership model targeted at the local, tactical level (bottom up) with easily measurable results (such as harvest quotas) may be a way forward.
“We need to put the angry young men to work. One of the key hindrances to us establishing stability in Iraq is the failure to get the economy going. A relatively small decrease in unemployment would have a very serious effect on the level of sectarian killing going on. ...For a very small amount of investment, we can put a very large number of jobs in place, long-lasting jobs that will produce goods and services that are wanted by people in Iraq and outside of Iraq.”
Lieutenant General Peter Chiarelli, United States Army
Former Commanding General, Multi-National Corps – Iraq*** More to follow in a subsequent post***“We do believe that reviving the sectors of agriculture, services and industry will develop the Iraqi economy. The government is still the biggest investor because we don’t have an active private sector and huge foreign investments.”
Deputy Prime Minister Barham Saleh
Deputy Prime Minister of Iraq
Regards,
Steve
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