Toward Sustainable Security in Iraq and the Endgame

[Rob Thornton]

Hi RA- good comments,

I think you are correct in that Iran does influence our negotiations, that seems natural given our interests and those of our partners and allies. I also think it influences Iraq's in multiple ways as well - they have to live there, share many bonds at different levels, and also fought a brutal, exhausting war that left its imprint on many Iraqi leaders and soldiers I know.

I disagree though if you mean Iraq's security needs do not concern us. Here are a few reasons why:

1) A successful or unsuccessful Iraq has consequences beyond the ME in terms of U.S. influence. It certainly has consequences within the ME for future agreements. Its a "brand name" issue, if Iraq rises from the ashes so to speak (and I believe it can given its people and resources), the early international perceptions of U.S. involvement become tempered. Its security is paramount to its ability to do so. Our friends and enemies are and will be watching to see how Iraq does, and if we remain committed to honoring any agreements we make, or in more general terms, how our involvement worked out. In that regard it is in our interests that Iraq succeed.

2) Iraq's success or failure affects us domestically in political and economic ways beyond our foreign policy goals. I'm not just talking about the election of political leadership - although that can be an effect derived from it. It has something to do with the way we ascribe value to ourselves and to others - I know that is pretty subjective, maybe that is one for MarcT

3) Iraq's ability to secure itself does more then just affect Iran's ability to spread influence. It may also affect its other neighbors in positive ways. If Iraq can over time extend control over its borders it influences Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Kuwait in other ways. From the way trade and people flow, to positively influencing events that are destabilizing to those states Iraq's ability to secure its self matters. Many of these issues provide additional animosities and stresses upon which political leaders in some of those states either must contend with in the domestic and international community, or in some cases use as rational to impose policies to which their populations might not otherwise agree. These states are also important to us both in terms of our bilateral relations and in terms of how their broader relations with their neighbors and the international community - they count in our foreign policy and Iraq's security affects them.

4) Economically Iraq matters - and so its security matters. Its not just the oil and natural gas with regard to the global energy market, historically (going way back) - Iraq's geography and culture have played a key role in regional and (for western world at the time) international economics. It may have more to offer in terms of natural resources and agriculture production then any of its neighbors. It also has significant human capital - given sustainable security, and development - those people may bring forward advances in many areas - political, technology, religious, cultural, etc. Without sustainable security though the benefits of civilization remain elusive.

You also had a good point about top down vs. bottom up. I think its a little of both. Significant things which make agreements or legislation at the top are made sustainable by the base of support that is seen at the bottom. It could be the perception of that base, or it could be the actual base. Generally I see them worked from both ends at the same time - with pyramids we have to contend with physics, with people its different.

Its the same thing I see with the Inter-Agency reform - while there are calls for a GN II, the reality is the workers are already finding ways to make it happen because of the need - any formal codification will hopefully make it better - but alone codification neither sustains it, nor makes it a fact - it only makes it more possible. Codification lacking the will to make it happen right - can be empty, can be obfuscated, can be ignored to some degree, or could be misconstrued.

Best, Rob